I promised it in last week’s Draft Strategy piece, so here it is: The RotoBowl Draft Recap. Included here is a comparison between my strategy and what actually happened on draft night, a thorough analysis of my roster, and league Power Rankings, which includes analysis of all 12 teams in the league.

Strategy vs. Actual

If you read my Draft Strategy piece last week, you should have a pretty decent idea of who I would be targeting throughout the draft. Let’s see how accurate my predictions turned out:

…it is very likely that I will end up with either Frank Gore or Andre Johnson.

Andre Johnson went 5^th overall, which left me with the easy decision of selecting Gore.

I will be hoping and praying that Jamaal Charles falls to me [at my 2^nd pick]…my target here will be a running back or an elite wide receiver.

Jamaal Charles was the pick. Roddy White was his biggest competition, but I couldn’t pass up Charles’ upside.

My main focus throughout the early-to-mid rounds will be solidifying my starting running back and wide receiver units, while also adding plenty of depth at the running back position.

This is exactly how it went. I managed to acquire four of the top 18 running backs on my board (Gore, Charles, Ahmad Bradshaw, Chris Wells) and added another with major upside in Donald Brown. Although I waited for quite a while to choose my 3^rd wide receiver (Devin Hester), I grabbed my first two early (Marques Colston, Nicks). I added plenty of depth at both positions throughout the second half of the draft.

Because quarterbacks receive only 4 points for a passing touchdown, I will be waiting to select one. Once I fill in most of my running back and wide receiver slots, my target will be Jay Cutler.

I nailed this one right on the head, as I selected Jay Cutler with pick 6 in round 7. Cutler was the ninth quarterback off the board.

Considering how deep tight end is this season, I will not select one in the early rounds unless Dallas Clark or Antonio Gates fall way beyond their ADP.

Dallas Clark tempted me in Round 4, but I went with Hakeem Nicks instead. In round 9, I finally selected Chris Cooley to man the tight end position. Considering I have my 4^th through 9^th ranked tight ends basically even, this was a big win for me.

It’s unlikely that I’ll bite on a quarterback or tight end before round seven.

Quarterback in the 7^th and Tight End in the 9^th.

Here are a few names I’ll be targeting on Tuesday:

QB – Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger

RB – Jamaal Charles, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Javon Ringer

WR – Wes Welker, Hakeem Nicks, Terrell Owens, Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, Mike Thomas, Brandon Tate

TE – Zach Miller (Oak), Jermaine Gresham

To make it easy, the players I did acquire are in bold.

The Roster

Here is my complete roster. In parentheses is round selected. In brackets is each player’s positional ranking on my Draft Board (starters only).

Starters:

QB – Jay Cutler (7) [7]

RB – Frank Gore (1) [5]

RB – Jamaal Charles (2) [9]

WR – Marques Colston (3) [8]

WR – Hakeem Nicks (4) [15]

WR – Devin Hester (10) [23]

TE – Chris Cooley (9) [6]

K – Dan Carpenter (20) [7]

D/ST – Denver (19) [13]

FLEX – Chris Wells (5) [17]

FLEX – Ahmad Bradshaw (6) [18]

Bench:

QB – Ben Roethlisberger (11)

QB – Vince Young (17)

RB – Donald Brown (8)

RB – Bernard Scott (13)

WR – Mike Thomas (12)

WR – Louis Murphy (14)

WR – Anthony Gonzalez (15)

WR – Deon Butler (18)

TE – Tony Scheffler (16)

Grades:

Quarterbacks: A- : I’m pleased with my quarterback situation. Often, people will look only at who you have rostered at a specific position and grade you based on the names they say. Because value is so important, it’s important to also consider draft position. Cutler, easily could be a top 5 quarterback if the Martz-led offense is efficient, was selected in round 7, allowing me to load up on runningbacks and acquire a pretty good duo at wide receiver. If Cutler falters, I was able to get Roethlisberger in round 11. He is a top 10 option at the position once he returns from suspension. Young adds depth.

Running Backs: A : I’m not without questionmarks at the position, but who is? Considering I have 4 of my top 18 at the position (which means both flex spots are taken care of), I’m very happy. Frank Gore could easily be the top running back this season if he manages to stay on the field for 16 games. Jamaal Charles, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Beanie Wells are the best backs on their team, but do not have as much of a stranglehold on their team’s carries as Gore does. Regardless, they all have tremendous upside. Donald Brown in round 8 and Bernard Scott in round 13 were upside picks. Both are sophomores who are very talented and in position to see an increase in reps.

Wide Receivers: B : At first glance, this unit doesn’t look too impressive, but, again, it must be viewed in context. Despite waiting on the position, I still managed to grab perennial stud Marques Colston and up-and-coming superstar Hakeem Nicks. I’m very pleased with that WR1-2 situation. From there, I was able to wait until round 10 to grab Devin Hester, who I am very high on. After that, I simply added plenty of depth to make up for any potential shortcomings. I will be disappointed if, at least, one of Thomas, Murphy, Gonzalez, and Butler don’t have a breakout campaign.

Tight Ends: B : The only way I’d give myself an A/A+ here is if I managed to get Antonio Gates or Dallas Clark in round 5. My plan was to wait and still get one of my top nine tight ends. That planned worked. I snagged Chris Cooley in round 9 and selected his backup, Tony Scheffler (my #13 ranked TE) in round 16.

Overall: A- : It might seem a bit egotistical to give myself an A-, but I wouldn’t do it if I wasn’t happy with my effort. I achieved almost all of my goals and was lucky enough to get a majority of my guys where I wanted them. Plus, if you’re not happy with your team after a draft, you probably need to re-evaluate your draft strategy.

League Power Rankings

1. PFF_MikeClay – See extensive analysis above

2. Hous Bin Pharteen – You were able to acquire the Favre-E Manning QB duo late, which is very solid. Moreno-Greene are your only RB starters, but F Taylor/F Jackson/Hightower offer some nice depth. R Moss and Calvin give you 2 studs at WR and Garcon is a great WR3 option. Berrian/Burleson/Cotchery lead your WR depth. Keller is not a TE1, but he is for you. Shockey is a shaky backup.

3. Styktrain – I like the Flacco-Stafford duo at QB. Both have a lot of upside. Rice is a stud and Spiller could be the top rookie RB. It appears they’ll be your only starters at RB, but you’re rich with handcuffs: Maroney/LJohnson/J Davis/Jennings/Huggins/Dixon. Roddy and DeSean are great WR1-2 options. Floyd is an excellent WR3. Tampa’s Mike Williams and McCluster offer a ton of upside. Nelson/Robiskie is okay. Finley is probably the 3^rd best TE, but you have no backup. Overall, love your strategy.

4. Kielbasa Killers – Brady/Kolb make for a very nice QB duo. Chris Johnson is the top pick and you smartly grabbed Ringer before I did. Stewart/R Williams are backups, but their upside is insanely high. Snelling/Slaton/BWest are intriguing. You’ll start 4 WRs, which is okay considering they are pretty good: Jennings/Sims-Walker/S Moss/Meachem. L Moore/Bess have some decent upside and Moore handcuffs Meachem. You chose Daniels at TE, which is fine once he returns to 100% healthy. K Boss is a mediocre TE2.

5. Two Wise Men – Rivers-Garrard makes for a decent QB duo. Peterson is a stud at RB and Addai/Barber aren’t bad RB2-3 options. Smart move grabbing Choice and Gerhart. L Washington has an opportunity in Seattle. Lots to like at WR with Steve Smith (car), Fitzgerald, and Welker. Rice was a guy I wish I took earlier than he went. Massaquoi is solid and Edelman is a nice cuff to Welker. Heath/Zach Miller duo at TE is solid. Fred Davis is a headscratcher.

6. Ryan55 – Ryan/Smith at quarterback scares me, but both have some upside, Ryan for sure. Mathews-Forte is okay at RB1-2, but TJ/LT/Hillis isn’t much depth. RB is a concern. The WR situation is better with Andre Johnson/Driver/Maclin/Gaffney leading the way. James Jones/Hartline/Heyward-Bey have plenty of upside and Branch is a starter. You have a nice Witten-VDavis tight end duo, but you took Witten before D Clark went, which means you could’ve waited.

7. Blueprint for Success – Romo-McNabb is a nice duo at quarterback. Jones-Drew leads the RBs and McCoy-F Jones have a ton of potential. Sproles isn’t a terrible flex, but that’s basically all you have at RB. Scary. B Marshall is a nice WR1, but all you have is average depth after that. L Robinson/Collie/Manningham/Walter is scary and you need to decide between Doucet/Breaston each week. Another guy starting 2 tight ends with D Clark/Winslow. At least those 2 are both TE1 material.

8. StillBallin – Can’t argue with Rodgers at QB. Mendy-DWilliams-Forsett-Cadillac foursome allows you to start 2 RBs in Flex, 2 of which are studs, all of which start. Bell and Buckhalter are injury prone, but decent backups. Nice work. The Wide Receivers are shaky, but your bench could bail you out. Crabtree is good, but WR1? No way. TJ Housh and Mike Williams (SEA) have to start? Scary. You’ll need your late picks of Santonio Holmes and Vincent Jackson to bail you out. Gates is a stud TE and Olsen is a fine backup.

9. Blackshirts 2010 – Peyton is an elite QB and Orton is a fine backup. Runningback situation is very shaky. Grant is your RB1 and he’s the only starting RB on your squad. McFadden/R Bush are scary starting options, but at least there’s upside there. Lynch/J Jones aren’t too intriguing on the bench. Wayne/Boldin is a nice duo at WR and you have some depth to fill in the WR3 slot (Edwards/Royal/Britt/R Williams/Henderson). Gonzalez is fine at tight end. I like Gresham as a TE2, but not as a starter at Flex.

10. Andy Herbert – Not in love with Palmer-Henne at QB. You only have 3 RBs in Turner/Best/Taylor and one isn’t even a starter. I like the starting WRs: Austin/Harvin/Knox and you have plenty of depth there: Evans/Naanee/Amendola/B Tate/Shipley. Celek is a very good TE, but having to also start Shiancoe hurts.

11. JC Leston – Schaub is an elite QB, but you reached a bit and it hurt you. Hasselbeck isn’t a strong QB2. S Jackson/Harrison/Portis will manage at RB. Jacobs/McGahee/Moore/Norwood isn’t overly appealing, but at least you’re 7 deep. I like the H Ward/S Smith (nyg) duo and Ochocinco is a good WR3. Chambers was a great pick late and Bryant/Morgan have upside. Carlson is a borderline TE1 and you have no backup. Ouch.

12. Rosemead Gambinos – Brees is an excellent QB, but you have no backup. I like the talent at RB, but it’s a risky situation: R Brown/Benson/Foster/M Bush with K Smith there, too. No WR jumps off the page, but the excess of WR2s makes up for it: TO/Aromashodu/Bowe/Wallace/Mason . Jacoby has most upside on bench. Ben Watson/Heap duo at tight end hurts.

That is a wrap. Remember to check back throughout the season for updates on my progress. In the meantime, head over to RosterDoc.com and check out their impressive list of contests and fantasy games. If you’d like to compete for $20,000 and a trip to the Superbowl with myself, Stephen A. Smith, and Ray Rice, sign up today for RotoBowl. The deadline to register is Thursday!

I’ve been forced to watch enough home makeover shows to be familiar with the drill. The homeowners are sent away, the house/room is remodeled, they return and the woman shouts over and over again, “Oh my God! Oh my God! Oh my God!” In fact it would appear men these days have a better chance of bringing their women to climax by redecorating the bedroom than fornicating in it. But, of course, this advice should be heeded on a fantasy owner by fantasy owner basis.

Makeovers in the NFL are plentiful each year as well. Players switch teams, head coaches and coordinators are replaced and fantasy gurus across the web are there to analyze these changes ad nauseum. The problem is there is a distinct bias in this analysis toward the offensive side of the ball. Articles touting the fantasy impact of Mike Martz, Donovan McNabb, Brandon Marshall and a host of others are so ubiquitous that many an owner can recite Devin Aromashodu’s upside projection quicker than his children’s birthdays.

But what about defense? With all the talk of matchups, strength of schedule and bye week replacements one would think an analysis of defensive offseason moves would be warranted. Yet checking the top websites and magazines these moves seem to get as much play as the latest Yoko Ono CD. Should it then be considered unnecessary or overkill to study these changes? Not really. In fact just a cursory look at “Defensive Fantasy Points Allowed” numbers show that teams often make great leaps or stunning falls in the rankings from year to year. For example the Jets went from #29 in QB Points Allowed in 2008 to #1 in 2009 while the Packers jumped from #26 to #2 in the RB rankings thanks to coaching and personnel changes that sent them from solid “play against” D’s to “must avoids”. Not to mention the Houston Texans who moved from #23 to #14 and #27 to #11 in the RB and QB rankings respectively as key defensive players returned from injury to bolster the unit.

By utilizing the Pro Football Focus Premium Stats individual defensive player grades there is now an easy way to determine how offseason defensive changes will affect this year’s defensive squads. This will help owners better interpret strength of schedules, prepare for bye weeks and maneuver for the playoffs as opposed to just using last year’s numbers as our guide. The table below lists the significant players lost and their likely replacement for each NFC team. As you’ll note the PFF stats allow one to breakdown a player’s performance in three distinct areas- vs. run, pass rush and vs. pass. The grades for pass coverage have been eliminated for defensive lineman and run/pass rush grades have been eliminated for cornerbacks and safeties (x).

Analysis

Fantasy ranking vs. QB/RB/WR/TE in parentheses. 1= fewest points allowed, 32=most points allowed.

ARIZONA (16/14/20/26): Finished near the bottom vs. WR/TE despite Rodgers-Cromartie’s strong year. That should continue as Lenon -1.0 and aging Joey Porter -6.8 do not help the pass rush.

ATLANTA (27/16/15/27): Dunta Robinson was supposed to fix the pass D, but he rated only .6 points better than departing C. Houston and is hobbled by a hamstring so far. Biggest trouble came vs. TEs so continue to play against there. Loss of Babineaux will also hurt both vs. run and in pass rush. This looks like a decent play against defense again.

CAROLINA (4/23/2/10): Loss of Peppers and Lewis rips heart out of pass rush so QB/WR numbers should improve. It’s a wash in the run game. This defense should return to the pack so don’t fear playing QB/WR against.

CHICAGO (26/18/25/24): Pass rush immediately improves with Peppers, but run D may suffer. Urlacher will be back (check injury status), but PFF #s say Nick Roach was more than adequate in his place. Looks like an overall middling D that may be on the field too much if Martz’ offense doesn’t click. Still a reasonable play against.

DALLAS: (14/6/10/14): Not much here. Expect similar #s to 2008. Look for better go againsts for your bye week replacements.

DETROIT (32/27/30/29): The Gold Standard of play against defenses. Suh should be good, but there is a lot of help needed. King and Atlanta castoff Houston do not help the secondary much and Vandenbosch is past his best pass rushing days. Go against with impunity especially with QB/WR as the improved Lion offense may create more shootouts.

GREEN BAY (19/2/17/23): Pickett (3.0 vs. run, 5.5 in 2008) for Jolly actually improves the run D so stay away there. Charles Woodson may return to earth and opponents will be playing catch up so QB/WRs are still good to go.

MINNESOTA (20/4/16/28): “Williams Wall” is still in place so avoid playing RBs, especially non-pass catchers. Note the poor play vs. TEs and keep it in mind for possible bye week coverage.

NEW ORLEANS (6/24/24/4): Alex Brown for Charles Grant upgrades the run defense, but not to “stay away” status. Still if your RB2/3 is on a poor team that may fall behind quickly, try to look elsewhere.

NY GIANTS (29/20/18/32): This is not an automatic TE play against defense! The Giants were decimated by injuries last year and none was bigger than losing SS Kenny Phillips. Replacement Michael Johnson was -11.2 in pass coverage inflating the TE stats. In fact, in 2008 the Giants were #1 vs. TEs. Bulluck and Rolle help the run D and coordinator Perry Fewell comes over from Buffalo where the Bills went 2/30/3/12 with much less talent. Return to middle of the pack or better is expected. Monitor.

PHILADELPHIA (23/12/9/31): Darryl Tapp upgrades the run defense significantly, but the loss of Witherspoon and Brown may mitigate that help overall. Despite dire predictions to avoid this D at all costs they were run over by Dallas twice at the end of last year. Certainly not a play against, but don’t go benching any consistent contributors for fear of this unit.

SAN FRANCISCO (12/10/13/3): Exchanging Franklin for the young Jean-Francois hurts the run D, but otherwise continuity reigns here. Clements will adequately replace Bly. A conservative team led by a defensive minded HC means look for your bye week matchups elsewhere.

SEATTLE (25/25/29/16): Losing Tapp, Hill and Hawthorne hurts the run D, but HC Carroll has put together some stout units in the past. The return of Tatupu helps all around so things shouldn’t get worse here. Look for mild improvement under Carroll culminating in average #s.

ST. LOUIS (21/29/19/19): Losing Little hurts the pass rush. Losing Lenon hurts the run defense. And adding Adeyanju, Diggs and Robbins doesn’t make up for it. HC Spagnoulo can coach up defenses, but the talent is just not there. Play against.

TAMPA BAY (17/26/26/22): D improved considerably when HC Morris took over for the final 7 games. He’ll have his hand on this unit again so improvement can be expected. Dumping Hovan and Sims is addition by subtraction. Still a play against D, but watch the matchups and monitor the early going.

WASHINGTON (5/11/14/6): No significant personnel changes outside the ongoing Haynesworth saga. Jim Haslett comes in as the DC with a sketchy past. Still, expect this unit to maintain better than average #s as the “Shanahan Wave” should lift all boats…or something like that.

Finally, do not take this analysis as advice to bench Michael Turner because he’s facing Minnesota’s run D or any drastic measure like that. As the old horse breeding saying goes, “you put your best to the best and hope for the best.” However, when trying to chose your top bye week options or planning out a QB by committee keep in mind not only last year’s numbers, but almost as importantly the direction these defenses are headed. And don’t forget to follow the PFF Premium Stats throughout the year to update your defense grades as injuries occur.

AFC analysis next week.

To accurately compile projections, it is important to study target distribution to each position. Below is analysis of said target distributions for each team in the AFC. A chart showing all 2008 and 2009 data is at the bottom. The chart also includes 2010 projections.

Click Here to view the NFC.

BLT — The Ravens absolutely abused the running back position in 2009, but expect that number to dip in 2010 after the addition of Anquan Boldin. Still, Ray Rice is going to attract a ton of footballs out of the backfield, which means Baltimore will be among the NFL leaders in pass attempts to running backs. The Ravens drafted a pair of tight ends, but they won’t make much of an impact in the pass game this year unless the incumbent Todd Heap suffers an injury.

BUF — The Bills were among the league leaders in passes to the running back in 2009 and that number should rise even higher in 2010. Out and not replaced is Terrell Owens at wide receiver, but in and ready to take on a ton of passes out of the backfield is rookie tailback C.J. Spiller. Shawn Nelson seemed to be in line for a bigger role this season, but will miss four games due to a substance-abuse-related suspension.

CIN — Carson Palmer and the Bengals have relied heavily on the wide receiver over the past two seasons and the additions of Terrell Owens, Jordan Shipley, and Antonio Bryant (if he hangs around) mean that is unlikely to change in 2010. Jermaine Gresham was drafted to add a receiving threat at the tight end position and his presence should mean a few additional looks for the perennially underused tight end unit. Cedric Benson will be targeted more often this season, but Cincinnati will still end up in the bottom half of the league in passes to the running backs.

CLV — The Browns were one of only a few teams that had a target differential change of 10 percent or more last season. The change, as you can see in the chart, was a 10 percent decrease in looks for the tight end position. This can easily be traced to the team’s trade of Kellen Winslow Jr. to Tampa Bay. The team signed Ben Watson this offseason, but don’t expect a return to the tight end-heavy offense. Montario Hardesty and Jerome Harrison will get their fair share of targets out of the backfield, which means Cleveland’s passing game will remain as one of the most reliant on the running back.

DEN — Despite the departure of heavily targeted Brandon Marshall, the Broncos will continue to be heavily reliant on the wide receiver position. Denver also traded away its best pass-catching threat at tight end in Tony Scheffler, which means the team’s tight end unit will end up as one of the most underused in the league. Running backs Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter won’t be relied on heavily, but they’ll see enough looks to end up just under league average as a unit.

HOU — Prior to his season-ending injury in Week 8, Owen Daniels was one of the most relied-on tight ends in 2009. Because none of his replacements could quite fill his shoes, targets to the position dropped off big time. In fact, check out this chart, which shows the team’s 2009 target differential with and without Daniels on the field.

Expect a pretty decent hike in targets to Daniels, and the unit as a whole, in 2010. Arian Foster isn’t known for his pass catching, but Steve Slaton will be on the field enough to keep the Texans in the upper half of the league in passes to the running backs. Andre Johnson attracts close to 30 percent of the team’s targets on his own, but the wide receiver unit as a whole ranks relatively low in target distribution. The health of Daniels means another drop in 2010.

IND — Although Dallas Clark will be one of most targeted tight ends in the league, expect a slight decrease in targets to the position. This will come as a direct result of the logjam at wide receiver, where we could see more four-wide receiver sets in 2010. Joseph Addai showed outstanding hands last season, but could see a slight drop in looks with Donald Brown expected to eat into his workload. Overall, the running back unit will be one of the least used in the league. As was the case from 2008-to-2009, don’t expect Peyton Manning and Co. to change much in terms of target differential this season.

JAX — The Jaguars are one of the most balanced teams in the league in terms of target distribution. In fact, the projections you see below rank them at 17th in percentage of passes to the RB, 15th to the WR, and 13th to the TE. The tight end position saw an increase in looks last season, and that number should only rise in 2010 due to the emergence of Marcedes Lewis and Zach Miller. The heavy use of Maurice Jones-Drew in the passing game keeps the RB unit afloat in this department. The talented, but young and unproven wide receiver unit will see a similar amount of looks to what we saw in 2009.

KC — When you throw Todd Haley (new coach), Matt Cassel (new quarterback), Jamaal Charles (replaced Larry Johnson at running back during the season), and Tony Gonzalez (traded to Atlanta) into a pot, it shouldn’t surprise you if you end up with big changes in target distribution. The Chiefs were among the most reliant on the tight end in 2008, but that figure dropped off by a whopping 15 percent last season after the trade of Gonzalez to Atlanta. The benefactors of this drop were running backs, who saw a 6 percent spike due to the midseason explosion of Charles. The team’s wide receiver unit jumped up 10 percent under Haley and is now one of the most relied-on in the league. The team didn’t make any moves that suggest a massive shift in any of these categories in 2010. The tight end unit will be near the basement of the league in targets, while wide receiver (which, by the way, includes Dexter McCluster) will rank among the most relied on.

MIA — The addition of Marshall will mean an increase in targets for the team’s wide receiver unit as a whole. The Ronnie Brown-Ricky Williams duo will still see their share of looks out of the backfield, which means tight end is the position that will suffer. Miami already used its tight ends very little and the Anthony Fasano-Joey Haynos pair won’t demand any additional attention in 2010. The wide receiver and running back units, meanwhile, could both end up among the top 10 most relied on in the league.

NE — Watson is out, but the unappealing Alge Crumpler, moderately-appealing Rob Gronkowski, and possibly-TE2-material-appealing Aaron Hernandez are in at tight end. No team has used the tight end less than the Patriots over the past two seasons, but that could change in 2010. Although they will still be near the league basement in combined targets, the unit as a whole will see an increase of 4-5 percent this season. The team’s top five running backs are back from 2009 and there won’t be much of a change in role. Expect the below-average distribution of target to the RB position to stay the same. Although targets to the wide receiver position will dip in 2010, the Patriots will still be among the NFL leaders in this category. As if Randy Moss and Wes Welker don’t already require a significant chunk of the targets, the continued development of Julian Edelman, Brandon Tate, and Taylor Price guarantees this position will be heavily relied on for a long time.

NYJ — During the off-season, the Jets added wide receivers Santonio Holmes and Laveranues Coles and replaced running backs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington with LaDainian Tomlinson and Joe McKnight (maybe). Although the changes may seem significant, the team’s target distribution shouldn’t change much. Dustin Keller will remain heavily involved in the pass game and the tight end unit as a whole will end up near league average. The Jets did not throw to the running back very often last season and the departure of Washington means even fewer looks for the position. This leaves the talented group of wide receivers to handle near 61 percent of the targets, which would put them among the top 10 units.

OAK — Jason Campbell knows how to get the ball to his tight ends and he will have plenty of opportunities to do just that in Oakland. Zach (J.) Miller managed to put up fantasy-relevant numbers in 2009 despite playing on an offense that had a very hard time moving the ball through the air. Campbell isn’t Drew Brees, but he also isn’t JaMarcus Russell. The Raiders offense will be improved and will continue to lean on Miller, who will be one of the most targeted tight ends in the league again this year. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush will command enough targets to put the running back unit in the top half of the league. The team’s less-than-impressive wide receiver unit will finish towards the bottom of the league in targets, especially considering that their projected top option, Chaz Schilens, is out indefinitely with another injury.

PIT — The Steelers traded away Holmes, but Mike Wallace will step into his role and the team also acquired a ton of options to replace him, including free agents Antwaan Randle El and Arnaz Battle and rookies Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown. Still, we should expect, at least, a small decrease in looks for the position. Rashard Mendenhall will see a few targets each week, but overall, the running back unit will be used very little in the passing game. Heath Miller will see a similar amount of targets to what he saw in 2009, which means the team’s tight ends will end up around league average in targets.

SD — It appears likely that Vincent Jackson will not play for San Diego in 2010, which means we could see a slight shift away from the wide receiver position. The Chargers already don’t throw to the receivers very often, so this won’t be a huge adjustment. They threw to the running back 6 percent less often last year, but were still among the league leaders in that department. They obviously like throwing to the position and that will not change with Darren Sproles and rookie Ryan Mathews in the backfield. Mathews is not known for his hands, but, in this offense, he will catch close to 35 balls. Antonio Gates will be heavily relied on as usual, and the tight end unit will be right around the top 10 in targets.

TEN — The Titans don’t have a superstar receiving option at tight end, but that didn’t stop them from relying heavily on Bo Scaife and company in 2010. Crumpler is gone, but Craig Stevens will pick up his share of the targets. The development of Jared Cook has not gone as planned, but he will chip in with a few looks, as well. Expect another season of Vince Young looking to his tight ends often. Chris Johnson the glowing exception, the Titans did not throw to the running back unit very often in 2009. That won’t change this year. The wide receiver unit has not changed at all and will be relied on as much as they were a season ago, which isn’t very much. Expect little change in the Titans target distribution.

*Note: The Projected targets add up to 99 percent intentionally. This accounts for a few throw aways/spikes

To accurately compile projections, it is important to study target distribution to each position. Below is analysis of said target distributions for each team in the NFC. A chart showing all 2008 and 2009 data is at the bottom. The chart also includes 2010 projections.

ARIZONA CARDINALS — The Cardinals have been one of the easiest teams to read under Ken Whisenhunt: Throw to the running backs a ton, the receivers even more, and the tight end never. With Kurt Warner gone, however, the team will run more. This means more play action, which means more blockers on the field, which means more passes to tight ends. Ben Patrick is a winner here. Losers include Early Doucet and Steve Breaston.

ATLANTA FALCONS — The Falcons’ passing game relies heavily on two players: Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. You can see the change in reliance on the tight end from 2008 to 2009 due to the addition of Gonzalez. Game plans won’t always change due to personnel adjustments, but they will when an impact player such as Gonzalez is brought into the picture. The only major change on offense for Atlanta this year is the recovery of Harry Douglas from the injury that sidelined him for all of 2009. The Falcons already rely very little on the running back in the pass game (Jerious Norwood will get the bulk of the RB share) and we’d be silly to expect a lighter workload for Gonzalez. This doesn’t translate much of a change in the team’s projections for 2010.

CAROLINA PANTHERS — The Panthers saw drastic changes from 2009 to 2010. Regression, coupled with the team’s lack of a real receiving threat after Steve Smith, led to a 12 percent decrease in targets to the position. The tight ends and running backs split the extra targets. In 2010, the offense will be better, but Matt Moore will have a lot of youth to deal with at wide receiver. Because of this, we shouldn’t expect a huge change in targets to the position. The emergence of Dwayne Jarrett or Brandon LaFell, however, would still allow the position to see a middle-of-the-pack number of targets.

CHICAGO BEARS — The addition of Mike Martz as offensive coordinator in Chicago means more passes to the running backs and receivers and very few to the tight end. This shows up on the chart as one of the biggest changes we will see this year. The Bears relied heavily on the tight end position last year, but the addition of pass-catching running back Chester Taylor and the emergence of Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu means fewer looks for Greg Olsen and company. Despite the 13 percent drop, the 15 percent of passes you see projected to go to the tight end would actually be a new high for a Martz offense. Bears wide receivers and running backs are the winners, while Olsen is the obvious big loser.

DALLAS COWBOYS — Dallas is another team that has shown consistency with targets over the last two seasons. The reliance on Jason Witten and the tight end unit is up there with the highest in the league, while the running backs rank among the most unused. The receivers could see a few-percent increase thanks to an increase in talent at the position, as well as the injury to seldom-used tight end John Phillips. Don’t expect to see an increase in targets for the running backs, as the personnel hasn’t changed. 2010′s projection splits should look a lot like what we’ve seen the last two seasons.

DETROIT LIONS — Jim Schwartz‘ first year as head coach was also Matthew Stafford‘s first as quarterback. The team’s target distribution changed a ton from where it was the year prior. The wide receiver position was used very little outside of Calvin Johnson, with a high amount of passes going to the running backs and tight ends. The addition of Nate Burleson and the maturation of Stafford will mean an improved passing game across the board. Running backs, especially Jahvid Best, will still see a decent amount of looks, but not quite as many as in 2009. The addition of Tony Scheffler gives Stafford another option in the passing game, but also means Brandon Pettigrew will do more blocking and less receiving. Still, the two should combine for about 25% of the targets, which is a slight increase over 2009.

GREEN BAY PACKERS — Last season’s emergence of JerMichael Finley was the reason for the extreme change in targets between wide receivers and tight ends. Considering Finley didn’t emerge until several weeks into the season, it is fair to assume that the tight end position will see an even larger piece of the pie in 2010. Although the Packers are near the top of the league in passes to the tight end, the team’s talented group of wide receivers is still able to sit around league average in targets because of the extremely low amount of passes directed to the running backs. With Ryan Grant back and expected to be on the field for most of the offensive plays, this shouldn’t change much in 2010. A healthy Brandon Jackson is the biggest threat to catch balls out of the backfield.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS — Despite the addition of Brett Favre, the 2009 Vikings target distribution was almost identical to 2008. Pass-catching running back Chester Taylor was replaced by bruiser Toby Gerhart this offseason, which means a few more targets for Adrian Peterson but fewer targets for the position as a whole. The team’s tight end situation hasn’t changed, so expect Visanthe Shiancoe to be targeted about as much as he was in 2009. The development of sophomore Percy Harvin and continued stellar play of 2009 breakout Sidney Rice will allow Favre to use the wide receiver more often.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS — Despite turning to the run a lot more often in 2009, New Orleans is yet another team that changed its pass distribution very little. Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas have emerged as outstanding pass-catching options and are the reason why New Orleans throws to the running back more than all but a few teams. The Saints are middle-of-the-pack in terms of using the tight end, but Jeremy Shockey‘s age/health issues and the return of now-healthy wide receiver Lance Moore could mean a small drop in looks for the position this year. Although Drew Brees uses the wide receiver very little, the team’s passing game is so effective that players like Marques Colston, and to a lesser extent, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem remain fantasy relevant.

NEW YORK GIANTS — The Giants throw to the wide receiver more than any team in the NFL, and there is little reason to expect a change in 2010. The team’s situation at running back (Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs) and tight end (Kevin Boss) has not changed and the receiving unit should only be better. Steve Smith emerged as one of the game’s best possession receivers last season, while Hakeem Nicks is in perfect position to put up WR2 numbers in 2010. Mario Manningham, Ramses Barden, and Victor Cruz add some young talent and flash to the position.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES — The Eagles are relatively average in each category, but above average when it comes to running back and tight end usage and slightly below average in wide receiver usage. The 2009 emergence of Brent Celek allowed the Eagles to rely more on the position, and they will do just that again this season. There wasn’t much of a drop in throws to the running back last season despite the injuries to Brian Westbrook, which bodes well for LeSean McCoy‘s role in the pass game. Although DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant are quickly becoming one of the league’s best WR trios, the Andy Reid gameplan won’t change much. Celek and the running backs will still be relied on in the passing game.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS — A new coach means new trends. Last season, the Seahawks, under Jim Mora, relied heavily on the running back and very little on the tight end. This season, under Pete Carroll, expect to see a few more passes headed to John Carlson at the tight end position. Carlson was stuck blocking to help a struggling offensive line in 2009, but an improved line, coupled with the addition of tight ends Chris Baker and Anthony McCoy, means more route running for Carlson. Seattle should still be among the league leaders in passes to the running back when you consider that they added playmaker Leon Washington to man the backfield on third down. The team is as deep with risk as they are talent at the wide receiver position, which will lead to more reliance on Carlson and less on the receivers.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS — One of the biggest target distribution changes from 2008 to 2009 was the 49ers’ switch from throwing to the wide receiver a ton to throwing to the tight end more than anyone. This was clearly a product of the emergence of Vernon Davis, who will be heavily relied on again in 2010. Despite a projected 2 percent drop in throws to the tight end, they still are tops in the NFL in reliance on the position. Frank Gore is going to catch his fair share of passes and the addition of Brian Westbrook only means more passes to the running back. With the tight ends and RBs seeing most of the action, Michael Crabtree and the wide receiver unit are stuck at the bottom of the league in targets. Crabtree will be fantasy relevant as a result of seeing about the same amount of targets as Davis, but don’t get too excited for any other 49ers wide receivers.

ST. LOUIS RAMS — The Rams don’t exactly stand out when it comes to talented receiving options, which may explain why they are relatively balanced in their target distribution. Steven Jackson is one of the most relied on players in the league and that carries over to the passing game. Still, he is the target on most passes to the position, which leaves the team below average in that department. Daniel Fells could emerge as one of the top pass-catchers on the team this season, which means TE2 status in fantasy. The team has some intriguing young options at the wide receiver position and there will be plenty of targets to go around. Donnie Avery and Laurent Robinson will see most of the looks, but Danny Amendola, Mardy Gilyard, and Brandon Gibson will be worked into the mix as well. The Rams will approach the top 10 in targets to the position.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS — The Buccaneers added Kellen Winslow last season, which meant heavier usage of the tight end position. Add TE2 Jerramy Stevens to the mix and the Bucs were one of the teams most reliant on the position in the pass game. Considering the team is inexperienced at the wide receiver position, Winslow and Stevens will see plenty of looks again in 2010. The Bucs do not throw to the running backs, led by Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams, very often. This means that while the tight ends are near the top of the league in target percentage, the Bucs backs and receivers are both towards the bottom.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS — Mike Shanahan was brought onboard and has completely overhauled the offense. Still, the team’s strength in the receiving game is going to be the tight end duo of Chris Cooley and Fred Davis. Expect to see tons of footballs headed their direction and for the Redskins to end up as one of the most reliant teams on the position. Larry Johnson can catch the football and Clinton Portis is expected to handle third-down activities, which means the team should fall about league average in targets to the running back position. After Santana Moss, the Redskins have plenty of question marks at the wide receiver position. Fortunately for them, the team has the aforementioned tight ends to help in the receiving game. Not many teams will rely on their wide receivers less than the Redskins.

*Note: The projected targets add up to 99 percent intentionally. This accounts for a few throw aways/spikes.

Atlanta Falcons

(8/19 vs. N.E.)…Opened the preseason with a 20-10 win over K.C. in which the starters saw 2 series at most…WR Harry Douglas, looking to replace the injured M. Jenkins, sat out with a knee. HC Smith expects Douglas to see action in two weeks vs. Mia….Brian Finneran started in the #2 WR spot, but rotated with Eric Weems and rookie Kerry Meier. Only Meier made the stat sheet with 2 catches for 26 yds….Michael Turner ran well (4-29 yds.) and showed no ill effects from last year’s high ankle sprain. As for increased looks in the passing game he caught 1 ball for 6 yards. Look for the next two weeks to yield more clues on this front…Oft-injured RB Jerious Norwood sat out with a hip problem, but returned to practice Monday declaring himself “fully recovered”…In his absence RB Dmitri Nance saw increased playing time and scored two TDs. However, it still appears Jason Snelling is first in line as Michael Turner’s “handcuff” right now…The kicking battle has been settled earlier than expected with the release of Steven Hauschka. Matt Bryant who hit from 30 yards, but missed from 50 vs. K.C. assumes the job. Bryant finished 4^th among Fantasy kickers in 2008 with T.B….TE Colin Peek was also released. Justin Peelle will backup Tony Gonzalez at TE…FA acquisition CB Dunta Robinson missed the K.C. game with lingering hamstring issues. He’s expected back this week…The maligned secondary looked better holding Cassel/Croyle/Palko to 154 yds. This week vs. N.E. should be a better indication if this is still a QB/WR “play-against” defense this year.

Carolina Panthers

(8/21 vs. NYJ)…WR Steve Smith (broken arm) is off the preseason PUP list and practicing on a limited basis. HC Fox indicated that he will most likely allow Smith to sit out all preseason games, but that the signs are positive for him starting Week 1…Lost preseason opener 17-12 to Bal. It was the same old story offensively as the Panthers registered 142 yards rushing against 131 passing (7 sacks allowed)…QB Jimmy Clausen was 8-15, 80 yds., 1 int. and has jumped over Hunter Cantwell to #2 on the most recent depth chart…RB DeAngelo Williams ran without pain picking up 33 yards on 5 carries. RB Jonathan Stewart (achilles surgery) practiced for the first time Saturday and hopes to get in at least one preseason game. Despite the caution he is still expected to be fully ready Week 1 and remains and Round 3-4 selection on Draft Day…The WR2 spot remains an open competition between rookie Brandon LaFell, Dwayne Jarrett, Kenny Moore and Wallace Wright. Only LaFell sparks Fantasy interest for his Dynasty upside…Defensively the starters struggled vs. Baltimore’s #1 offense allowing 121 yards and 10 points in three series despite Ray Rice sitting out the game.

New Orleans Saints

(8/21 vs. Hou.)…Lost 27-24 to N.E. in the preseason opener…QB Drew Brees looked efficient completing 9-13 for 55 yards. QB Patrick Ramsey solidified his hold on the backup job with a strong 7-11, 111 yard performance and appears to be a viable “handcuff” in this system…RB Ladell Betts has been signed and immediately slides into the mix for the #3 job behind Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Betts (13 TDs in 103 career games) will compete with Chris Ivory (6-30 yds., 1 TD) and P.J. Hill (9-30 yds.) to fill the role slated to go to Lynell Hamilton who was released Monday after sustaining a season ending knee injury…Both Thomas and Bush participated vs. N.E. with Thomas seeing 12 touches (8 run, 4 rec.) for 53 yards on the night…TE Jeremy Shockey caught 3 passes for 23 yards after bouncing back from a knee issue early in camp. However, impressive rookie Jimmy Graham sprained an ankle and left in a walking boot solidifying David Thomas’ hold on the #2 TE job for now…WR Robert Meachem came off the PUP list Monday and took part in goal line drills. Meachem is wearing a reinforced shoe to protect his injured toe. He still feels pain so caution on his upside is recommended until more info is available.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(8/21 vs. K.C.)…Lost rain-soaked preseason opener 10-7 to Mia….QB Josh Freeman looked poised in limited action going 4-4, 53 yds. and hitting Sammie Stroughter for a 13 yard score…WR Stroughter caught 3 balls for 33 yards and impressive rookie Mike Williams caught 1 for 30 yards as the two took the early lead in the WR derby ahead of Maurice Stovall, who twisted an ankle and is day-to-day, and enigmatic Michael Clayton, who beat writers indicate may be on the roster bubble…Another surprising “bubble boy” is RB Derrick Ward. Ward blamed the slick field conditions for his 12 carry, 20 yard performance vs. Mia., but Raheem Morris was having none of it. Instead Morris sang the praises of RB Kareem Huggins who produced 55 yards on 8 carries. It may be a motivational ploy, but some writers believe Ward’s big contract could work against him if Huggins continues to impress…RB Cadillac Williams appears to be the Fantasy beneficiary of Ward’s early struggles. He turned in a 4 rush, 21 yard night Saturday and should continue to get sleeper consideration as long as his health holds up…TE Kellen Winslow is back at practice. The team continues to be cautious with him, but Winslow indicated he hopes to play this week vs. K.C….On defense the Bucs held Mia. to 206 total yards. Last year the team improved considerably on this side of the ball as the season progressed allowing only 17.7 points per game over the last 6 when HC Morris took over the defense from Jim Bates.