This is the point in the fantasy season where owning a great player on an NFL team with one of the league’s best records gets tricky. The “will he or won’t he rest” debate has been on for a week now and it’s going to continue all the way up to week 17.
Taking that into consideration, I threw some notes together on six teams who are or could be in a position to rest players over the next 2 weeks. I also add some fantasy advice to help you make decisions if you happen to own any of the players expected to rest. Note that I’m not guaranteeing these players will rest and I’m not advising you sit them unless it is reported that they will sit out.
Colts – Clinched home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
Fantasy Studs: Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne
Available Replacements: Curtis Painter, Mike Hart, Gijon Robinson, Hank Baskett
It’s possible that the Colts could go all out for the 16-0 record, but there is always the chance that the fantasy studs in question could take a seat and rest up for the playoffs.
If Manning were to take a seat, Curtis Painter would step in. The rookie has little experience and would not be relied on to make big plays. You shouldn’t bother with him. If Addai were to sit, it is unlikely that rookie Donald Brown would play considering his recent injury issues. Mike Hart has been spelling Addai for weeks and would likely get significant work. He is worth consideration as a Flex play if he were to be announced the starter for any of the final 2 games. If Clark sits, any of Gijon Robinson, Jacob Tamme, or Tom Santi could see most of the targets, but Robinson is the most likely bet. Considering how Indy uses the tight end, he is a tempting play if you’re a Clark owner. Replacing Reggie Wayne is trickier because Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon are likely owned in your league. Hank Baskett (and Anthony Gonzalez if he is healthy) will see extra reps if Wayne sits.
Patriots – A win away from clinching the division, but still tied with the Bengals for the 3-seed. We could see players rested once the division is clinched, but it isn’t likely until at least week 17.
Fantasy Studs: Tom Brady, Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss, Wes Welker
Available Replacements: Brian Hoyer, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Sam Aiken, Julian Edelman
If Brady were to take a seat, backup Hoyer would take control. He has very limited experience and is not someone you want to be relying on. The Patriots backfield is tricky because it’s already a three-headed attack with Maroney, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk (four if you include Fred Taylor, who should be back soon). Each of those players has plenty of experience and/or injury concerns. Green-Ellis handled the load for this team late in the 2008 season and could be called on again for some work later this year. That said, he’s not worth starting in fantasy leagues because the other players mentioned would likely still be involved in some nature. If Moss and Welker are sent to the bench, Sam Aiken and Julian Edelman would move up to the WR1 and 2 roles. Aiken has proven to be a big play WR, while Edelman filled in nicely for Welker when he missed time earlier this season.
Chargers – The Chargers are 11-3 and no other team in the AFC is better than 9-5 or worse than 14-0. That means they have plenty of separation from the one team they are chasing and the several teams chasing them. This is likely to result in rest for key players in week 17 and possibly in week 16.
Fantasy Studs: Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson
Available Replacements: Billy Volek, Michael Bennett, Brandon Manumaleuna, Legedu Naanee
If Rivers were to sit, Volek is a player worth considering if you don’t have a decent backup. Tomlinson is very likely to rest and because Sproles could sit as well, Bennett should step in and see some reps. Rest for Gates would mean more work for Manumaleuna and Kris Wilson. Neither are likely to be better plays than your backup or what is on your waiver wire. If Jackson rests, Floyd would likely move up to the WR1 slot to get some experience. Naanee, Kassim Osgood, and Buster Davis would all see work as well.
Saints – One more win clinches homefield throughout the playoffs and they no longer have to try for the 16-0 record, which likely means rest for starters over the next 2 games.
Fantasy Studs: Drew Brees, Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush/Mike Bell, Jeremy Shockey, Marques Colston
Available replacements: Mark Brunell, Lynell Hamilton, David Thomas, Lance Moore
When Brees takes some time off, it will be the veteran Mark Brunell who steps in. He is at least slightly appealing considering the finally tuned offensive machine he’d be running, but the team would more than likely run the ball as much as possible. In deeper leagues, you could consider him if you had Brees, but there are likely better options out there. If the Saints decide to rest their three-headed RB monster, Lynell Hamilton would see a ton of work. He is very appealing in most formats. If he gets the start, feel free to deploy him as your RB2. Shockey is already out with an injury and David Thomas filled in nicely in week 15. He’s a fine replacement if you need TE help down the stretch. If Colston takes some time off, Lance Moore would see an increase in workload. Robert Meachem is starting for a lot of people right now and playing a lot for New Orleans, but I’d imagine that Colston and Devery Henderson would get a break before he does. Someone has to play after all.
Vikings – A Vikings win at Chicago this week coupled with an Eagles loss at home to Denver clinches the Vikings a first round bye, which means week 17 rest for most players against the Giants.
Fantasy Studs: Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, Visanthe Shiancoe, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian
Available Replacements: Tarvaris Jackson, Chester Taylor, Jim Kleinsasser, Greg Lewis, Darius Reynaud, Jaymar Johnson
Tarvaris Jackson / Chester Taylor
Favre might be the most likely player in this article to see significant rest over the team’s final two games. If so, Jackson is a player worth considering in deeper leagues. He’s played well in minimal action this season. If Peterson were to get some rest, it would likely be Chester Taylor who would see extra work. Albert Young would get reps as well. I wouldn’t recommend Kleinsasser or Jeff Dugan if Shiancoe sits, but there is definitely touchdown potential there. If the team’s top 3 receivers get some rest, Lewis and the inexperienced Johnson and Reynaud would see work. The rookie Harvin could see extended work, but it is doubtful considering his recent injury woes.
Cardinals – Arizona has already clinched the NFC West and is currently the fourth seed, but still has an outside chance at a first round bye. Depending on how things go in week 16, we could see players rested in week 17.
Fantasy Studs: Kurt Warner, Beanie Wells, Tim Hightower, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin
Available Replacements: Matt Leinart, LaRod Stephens-Howling, Jason Wright, Early Doucet, Jerheme Urban
Unless Arizona somehow manages to get some breaks and has a legit shot at a first round bye, I’d be very surprised if Matt Leinart does not see some work over the next two weeks. He has some nice upside if you’re looking for a sleeper at QB. Wells has an injury plagued resume, so don’t be shocked if he gets some rest. Hightower could get a breather as well with the capable Stephens-Howling and Wright available to pick up the slack. If Fitzgerald and the oft-injured Boldin sit, Steve Breaston would likely see a few more looks. Doucet and Urban would also see an extended workload.
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