Today, I wrap up the NFC East with early Washington Redskins projections. Of the four I’ve done t0 date, this one was the toughest. A lot of questionmarks surround this offense. Will Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis return? If not, who replaces them? Do any of the backup RBs return? Will Mike Shanahan utilize Antwaan Randle El or will he work Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas into the offense? How do the two tight ends fit in: Will Cooley get his job back or did Fred Davis earn a bigger workload?
Basically every position is a toss up, so for now, I made some assumptions. To answer my own questions: (1) Campbell and Portis return (2) Betts, Ganther, Cartwright backup Portis (3) Thomas and Kelly are WR2 and WR3, while Randle El is 4th option (4) Cooley still gets most of the TE work, but Davis gets more looks than pre-2009-Cooley-injury.
QB: Jason Campbell : 331-of-517 , 3640 yards , 20 TD , 15 INT , 53 carries , 282 yards, 2 TD – Mike Shanahan is the new boss in town, which will change things, but I don’t expect to see much more than we’re used to with Campbell.
RB: Clinton Portis : 279 carries , 1118 yards , 7 TD , 22 targets , 17 receptions, 116 yards – This probably seems insanely high for the vet, but note that he was on pace for more yardage than this pre-injury last season. If Washington brings in another back who can produce alongside him, the numbers will drop to fantasy irrelevance. In the meantime, he’s still the main man.
For the second consecutive season, Devin Thomas (pictured) will do battle with Malcolm Kelly and Antwaan Randle El for the WR2 job in Washington.
WR: Santana Moss : 125 targets, 73 receptions, 944 yards, 5 TD – Moss is back as the team’s go-to WR, but the potential growth to prominence by Kelly and/or Thomas could cut into his looks.
WR: Malcolm Kelly : 71 targets, 40 receptions, 545 yards, 2 TD
WR: Devin Thomas : 71 targets, 38 receptions, 497 yards, 2 TD
-For now, I’m projecting each of these kids at 13% of the team’s targets. Both showed some flashes of light in 2009, but Kelly started slow and Thomas missed time with an injury late in the year. It’s too early at this point to guess which will get more of the looks next year, but it’s worth noting that Kelly “won the job” last preseason.
WR: Antwaan Randle El : 54 targets , 35 receptions , 373 yards , 1 TD – Old Reliable for the Redskins has successfully maintained his role as the team’s 2nd WR option for years now, but it appears that Kelly and Thomas are about to push him aside. Assuming he returns, there’s a good chance he’s, at best, the 5th receiving option.
TE: Chris Cooley : 98 targets , 67 receptions , 733 yards , 5 TD – Cooley was on a fantasy roller coaster last season before an injury sidelined him for the season. He will be back in 2010 and has top fantasy TE potential, but Fred Davis was effective as his replacement and should cut into his targets.
TE: Fred Davis : 38 targets , 24 receptions , 256 yards, 2 TD – Davis only touched the ball a few times up until the Cooley injury last season and, at this point, there is no way of telling what role he will see in 2010. For now, I’m giving him a conservative 7% of the targets (compared to a healthy 18% for Cooley).
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[...] There is a lot of sentiment that this could be a bounce back year for Portis. This move bolsters that possibility. Mike Clay of FantasyDC.com likes Portis this year as well. He predicts 279 rushes and over 1,000 yards. And, guess what? Portis even said he is going to practice and try this year! Here is the Fantasydc.com Redskins analysis. [...]
[...] Mike Clay’s look ahead at the Redskins for 2010 he projected Moss to be the most targeted WR by far with 125 targets and 73 receptions. His absence would benefit some other WR, maybe yet to [...]