In the ‘Looking Ahead’ series, Mike Clay is breaking down the offensive players who will make a fantasy impact on each of the 32 NFL teams. For each of these players, you’ll find Mike’s 2010 projection and a brief capsule.

The Atlanta Falcons struggled with injuries in 2009, but return this season with several potential fantasy studs. Back are Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez to lead the 4 offensive skill positions. There were no significant changes at these positions, but Harry Douglas is back as the WR3 after missing the entire 2009 campaign with an injury.

After missing the entire 2009 season with an injury, Harry Douglas is back and looking to push Michael Jenkings for targets.

QB: Matt Ryan : 310-of-517, 3657 yards, 24 TD, 14 INT, 32 carries, 65 yards, 1 TD – Ryan continues find himself overvalued in fantasy drafts. It’s important to remember that Atlanta is a run-first team, which limits Ryan’s fantasy production. Considering the playmakers he has around him in 2010, however, it’s possible he could sneak inside the top 12 among quarterbacks if the team throws slightly more than they have in years past. Still, considering he barely qualifies as a starter in 16-team leagues and is being taken in the top 10 of many drafts, he’s a name to avoid.

RB: Michael Turner : 290 carries, 1364 yards, 13 TD, 16 targets, 11 receptions, 76 yards – Turner struggled with injuries in 2009 and is expected to see fewer carries per game going forward, but he is still a workhorse with a nose for the endzone. If you list off your top 50 fantasy runningbacks for 2010, it’s probable that Turner will have the fewest receptions of that group at the end of the season despite his heavy rushing workload. Because of this, he takes a significant value hit in PPR leagues. He’s still a RB1 in all formats, but let someone else reach on him if your league awards points for receptions.

RB: Jerious Norwood : 46 carries, 221 yards, 1 TD, 53 targets, 39 receptions, 368 yards, 2 TD – Jason Snelling is the top handcuff to Turner and would see most of the carries if Turner were to miss any time, but it’s Norwood who will score more fantasy points if Turner is active each week. He won’t see many carries, but will catch plenty of passes on third down, giving him some value in deep PPR leagues.

WR: Roddy White : 149 targets, 80 receptions, 1153 yards, 8 TD – One of the league’s most heavily targeted wide receivers is a top WR option again in 2010. A healthy Matt Ryan for 16 games will only improve his production even more from 2009. White is quickly becoming one of fantasy’s most consistent producers at wide receiver.

WR: Michael Jenkins : 80 targets, 45 receptions, 607 yards, 3 TD – Jenkins will be pushed for targets by Harry Douglas and is not expected to be much of a fantasy contributor in 2010. He should only be selected in the deepest of leagues.

TE: Tony Gonzalez : 128 targets, 77 receptions, 845 yards, 8 TD – In 2010, his first season with the Falcons, Gonzalez picked up right where he left off in Kansas City, putting up fantasy-stud numbers at the tight end position. Gonzalez won’t be far behind White in targets and will be relied on heavily in the redzone. Tight end is as deep as ever with teams relying on the position more and more in the passing game, but the vet still ranks as a top 8 option at the position.

Running Backs –

Maurice Morris – I’m fairly certain that I was the only one talking this cat up all week and it paid off with a huge effort on Sunday. I speculated that Morris could touch the ball close to 20 times and he responded with 17 carries for 126 yards and a rushing touchdown along with 6 looks, 5 receptions, and 35 receiving yards. That’s a solid 20+ point effort in most formats.

Advice: I see no reason why anything would change in weeks 16 and 17. Morris should continue to approach 20 touches each week unless the team decides to give Aaron Brown a chance to show what he do. I can’t guarantee Morris will go over the century mark again, but he’s a solid RB2 play in 12 team leagues.

Jerome Harrison – Not many people had Harrison in their lineup this week and rightfully so. There was no telling if Harrison would see most of the looks, or if it would be Chris Jennings, who saw 20 carries in week 14, compared to just 7 for Harrison. Still, even has the backup, Harrison should’ve been considered a very deep sleeper up against the porous Chiefs. He showed up big time with 34 carries, 286 yards, and 3 touchdowns in what is the biggest fantasy performance by a running back this season. This is not Harrison’s first big game of the season. Back in week 4 he went for 152 yards on 34 touches, but the next week he touched the ball just 8 times with Jamal Lewis back in the fold. Lewis is gone now, but Jennings is still in the mix in Cleveland.

Advice: You almost have to consider Harrison in your flex spot for week 16, but you shouldn’t feel comfortable about it and you won’t hear me recommending it. The Browns run offense has been anything but effective for a majority of the season and the split in carries has been off the charts inconsistent. He has upside, but don’t be shocked if he ends up with 28 total yards on 9 touches.

Michael Bush – An injury to Justin Fargas allowed Michael Bush to rush for 133 yards and a score on 18 carries against Denver on Sunday. Prior to that game, Bush had carried the ball only 8 times since week 11. Fargas’ injury seems to be minor and if he is back in the fold next week, Bush cannot be relied on for double-digit looks once again. Although you’d expect him to see more looks after such a strong effort, it’s still a three-headed monster in Oakland.

Advice: Unless Fargas is out or Coach Cable says otherwise, Bush is third in line for carries and should not be considered in any format. If Fargas is out or Bush is named the RB2, those of you in very deep leagues who are desperate for help at your flex spot can consider his services.

Jason Snelling – Michael Turner made his return in week 15, which led to the masses dropping Snelling. Turner lasted only 1 carry before sitting out the rest of the game and it’s unknown whether he will suit up for the rest of the season, especially considering that Atlanta has been eliminated from the playoffs. Snelling ended up with only 64 yards, but did have an intriguing 21 looks, which was 10 more than seen by Jerious Norwood.

Advice: Snelling has done an okay job filling in for Turner when he’s missed time and that, coupled with the fact that he could start the team’s final 2 games, means he’s worth consideration as a flex play going forward. That said, if Turner plays, Snelling should not be in your lineup.

Derrick Ward – Whenever I’ve had an empty roster spot this season, Ward has been a player I’ve consistently turned to. Cadillac Williams has stayed relatively healthy so it hasn’t quite paid off as I’d hoped, but consider that in week 15, Ward carried the ball 19 times compared to 12 for Williams. Williams did, however, rack up 88 total yards on 13 touches, which was more efficient than the 73 yards on 20 touches for Ward. Neither has been overly impressive this season, but it’s worth keeping an eye on the timeshare.

Advice: You can’t rely on 20 touches for Ward unless news breaks that he is the new starter. If you have a roster spot to fill, he’s a good speculative pick for your bench, but nothing more right now.

Wide Receivers –

Lance Moore – Moore was back in the fold in week 15 and took advantage by scoring a touchdown despite only 2 looks. Despite the score, two looks should concern you if you’re considering using him in week 16 for several reasons. (a) It’s two looks. That’s not a lot (b) The Saints threw the ball 45 times, which is almost a dozen more pass attempts than they average a game this season and (c) The percentage of passes going to his teammates was about the same as in recent weeks. I’d mention that Jeremy Shockey was out as another reason to be skeptical of Moore, but David Thomas filled in with a whopping 10 targets, which is more than even Shockey is accustomed to.

Advice: Moore will always have decent potential because of the outstanding offense he is a part of, but he’s going to have trouble finding playing time with all the stars around him. At this point, he’s only worth a desperate play in a deep league.

Malcom Floyd – Floyd didn’t exactly light it up after Chris Chambers was cut loose, but he’s now been targeted a total of 16 times over the last 2 games. That is a healthy number for a player not being used in most leagues, but part of the reason for that is the fact that he’s caught only 7 of those 16 balls.

Advice: Any player seeing 8 targets a game in an above average offense is worth keeping an eye on. Floyd isn’t the safest play, but he has a ton of upside and is worth consideration in WR-deep leagues.

Josh Morgan has now been targeted at least 8 times in 3 of the 49ers last 4 games.

Josh Morgan – One of the most popular sleepers heading into this season, Morgan has been a disappointment for fantasy owners who reached on him in their draft. He’s quietly been picking it up over the last few weeks, as he’s now been targeted 8 times in 3 of the 49ers last 4 games. His numbers from the last four games (which includes a 3-catch, 14-yard week 14 effort) total to 29 targets, 22 receptions, 174 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Morgan is the third option in San Francisco with Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis keeping Alex Smith busy, but he’s a talented receiver yet to break out who is now seeing almost double-digits in looks every game.

Advice: Definitely worth considering in deeper leagues and someone you should definitely snag for your bench if you’re in any type of dynasty league. The Gore-Crabtree-Morgan-V Davis offense has tons of potential.

Tight Ends –

Bo Scaife – Although Scaife is anything but a gamebreaker, he’s been extremely consistent over the last 6 games and is worth a mention. In those six games, he’s been targeted 42 times, has 25 receptions, 261 yards, and 1 score. He was targeted 10 times on one occasion and has caught 5 balls three times. His high for yardage is 68. What does that all mean? It means he’s a safe play for close to 8 points in PPR formats and considering all the targets, it’s only a matter of time before he gets into the endzone again.

Advice: Again, he doesn’t have a ton of breakout potential, but he’s safe for 4 catches, 50 yards. If you’re desperate for tight end help and looking around on the Waiver Wire, he’s worth a look.

Quick Hits and Follow Ups –

Arian Foster / Ryan Moats / Chris Brown – I’ve been preaching this and preaching this. Stay away from Houston running backs. Everyone was excited about Foster this week and I just didn’t understand it. All it takes is one fumble and the “starter” gets sent to the bench for the rest of the game. Anyone who owned Steve Slaton or Ryan Moats knows all about this. If you played Foster in week 15, now you do, too.

Felix Jones – His touches continue to increase over the last month or two and it’s something worth keeping an eye on. Since week 11, he’s seen no fewer than 9 looks in any given week. His latest effort was 15 looks (14 touches) against the Saints. He racked up 68 yards on those touches and is still averaging just under 6 yards per carry.

Greg Camarillo – Mentioned him last week after he was targeted 17 times in 2 games. Make it 27 times in 3 games after 10 more looks this week. He only caught 5 of them for 46 yards, but bump him up a few notches on your watch list.

Devin Aromashodu – Devin Hester was out again so another guy I mentioned last week saw significant action. Aromashodu saw 10 more targets, but disappointed in the execution part of the deal with only 2 receptions for 10 yards. Hard to recommend him going forward, but if Hester is out again in week 16, those double-digit targets in back-to-back weeks make him worth consideration in deeper leagues.

Bernard Berrian – 7 targets, 5 catches, 36 yards. 6 targets , 4 catches , 43 yards . 5 targets, 3 catches , 25 yards. Those are Berrian’s stat lines from his last three games. Add to the equation that Brett Favre and the running game are struggling and that 6-4-35 average line feels even worse.

Kevin Curtis – Back in the fold in week 15, but was targeted only twice. Jeremy Maclin should still be out in week 16, but there is no reason to believe Curtis will see more than 4-5 looks a game going forward with Jackson, Celek, Avant, and Brown ahead of him for looks. He has potential because this offense is so stellar, but he’s not worth the gamble this week.

PHI WR3 Jason Avant – 20 targets over the last 3 weeks, but only 42 on the season. Considering how the Eagles like to spread the ball around, it can be frustrating to own any of their receivers. That being said, DeSean Jackson will likely miss some action, which should only mean more looks for an up-and-coming receiver in a pass-heavy offense.

Jason Avant has been a vacuum for the Eagles over the last 3 weeks and could see even more looks with DeSean Jackson likely to miss some time.

Advice: Assuming Jackson is out, he’s worth a spot start this week if you’re desperate for a WR in any 12 team+ league. He is definitely worth at least a bench spot in deep leagues and in some standard formats.

PHI WR4 Reggie Brown – Is expected to start this week against Atlanta with DeSean Jackson likely on the shelf. He could easily see 6-7 targets on a team that is averaging 36 pass attempts per game and possibly more if the Eagles are trailing.

Advice: Won’t help you much once Jackson is back, so you’re better off rolling with Avant. That said, he’s not the worst one week fill-in.

WAS TE1 Fred Davis – Chris Cooley was officially placed on Injured Reserve, which means Davis is the starter for the rest of the season. Since Cooley was injured a few weeks ago, Davis has been targeted 10, 4, 6, 3, and 9 times, respectively. That is clearly a bit inconsistent, but not terrible for a tight end.

Advice: Borderline starter in 16 team leagues and should be on someone’s bench in all but shallow leagues. Considering the potential he has to catch 5-7 balls, if you’re shaky at tight end, he’s at least worth a spot as your backup.

ATL RB2 Jerious Norwood & RB3 Jason Snelling – Snelling was the main man in week 11 when Michael Turner and Norwood were out, but saw only 4 carries in week 12 when both were active. If Turner misses more action, you should expect Snelling and Norwood to split the carries, with Norwood seeing a heavier dose of the 3^rd down looks and Snelling carrying the ball more, primarily near the goal line. If Turner is active, Norwood will spell him and Snelling won’t see more than 5 looks.

Advice: Norwood’s production will be limited to no more than a few carries and several targets a game regardless of whether it’s Turner or Snelling stealing a majority of the carries and goal line looks. He’s worth a bench spot in deeper leagues and a start if you’re desperate in a PPR league and Turner is out. Snelling should be on someone’s bench in all leagues considering Turner’s health issues.

CHI WR3 Johnny Knox – Knox is probably owned in most of your leagues, but some owners have been dumping him after a poor November. He went without a score from weeks 7-11 before finally catching one in week 12. The week 12 score might prompt people to jump back on the bandwagon, but consider that he was targeted only twice in week 12 and 5 times the week before. He’s made some big plays and Chicago is throwing more than all but 2 teams, but he’s the 4^th or 5^th option in the pass game most weeks and is lucky to have 6 balls thrown his way.

Advice: The potential is there for the rookie, but he’s too shaky to start right now. If you have room, leave him on your bench and keep an eye on the target numbers.

STL WR2 Brandon Gibson & WR3 Danny Amendola – Gibson has now been targeted a grand total of 33 times over the last 3 games, but only 15 of those looks were receptions and those catches were translated into only 172 yards and 0 touchdowns. Amendola is back as a relevant contributor to the passing game after Keenan Burton’s season-ending injury with 15 targets for 11 catches over the last 2 games.

Advice: The Rams offense has been better as of late, but it isn’t going to score touchdowns very often, which means limited value for its wide receivers not named Donnie Avery. That being said, both are seeing a ton of looks and with looks comes production. Both are worth bench spots in deep leagues, but you shouldn’t feel comfortable with them in your starting lineup.

HOU RB2 Chris Brown & RB3 Ryan Moats – The Texans’ cloudy runningback situation is taking form over the last few weeks. It appears that Brown will see most of the carries and Slaton won’t be far behind. Slaton will also be used heavily as a pass catcher out of the backfield. Ryan Moats is not being used at all and likely won’t be unless Slaton struggles or is injured.

Advice: Brown should be treated very much like Beanie Wells. He’s going to carry it 10-15 times most weeks and could score a touchdown here or there, but his value will always be limited (especially in PPR) because another back (Slaton for HOU and Hightower for ARZ) is stealing a portion of the carries and 3^rd down looks.

TEN WR2 Kenny Britt – Vince Young and the rookie Britt seem to be developing some chemistry and that could bode well for Britt’s stock going forward. He’s been targeted by Young 16 times over the last 2 weeks and has responded with 11 catches for 170 yards and 2 scores. Britt should continue to see a respectable amount of looks over the next few weeks, but 2 things will consider to hinder Britt’s stock. (1) Justin Gage is still out with a back injury and could return and take back his starting job soon. (2) Tennessee is throwing the ball only 22-25 times a game most weeks now that Young is behind center. The 43 pass attempts in week 12 are not something you can expect to see going forward.

Advice: Britt is definitely worth a roster spot in deep leagues, but you shouldn’t feel comfortable with him as a starter in a your standard 12 team league.

PIT WR3 Mike Wallace – Wallace has caught only 3 balls total over the last 3 games with the lowlight of his season coming in week 12 when Dennis Dixon failed to connect with him on any of the 4 passes thrown his way.

Advice: Although the rut started while Roethlisberger was behind center, it is not time to give up on Wallace. The Steelers will continue to throw his way 5-7 times a game, which has been enough for him to put up decent numbers. He’s not someone you want as a #1 or #2 WR, but he’s a respectable 3^rd option in most leagues.

CLE WR1 Mohamed Massaquoi & WR2 Chansi Stuckey – Massaquoi (20 targets over the last 2 weeks) and Stuckey (14) seem to have earned the trust of Brady Quinn, who has thrown their way a ton over the last 2 weeks. Stuckey has been more consistent, with 5 catches and a score in week 11 and 4 catches in week 12, while Massaquoi went from 5 catches, 115 yards, and a score in week 11 to only 1 catch in week 12.

Advice: Massaquoi is Quinn’s #1 option, which gives him at least some value in most formats. He’s not the worst you can do in 16 team leagues, but his production is too volatile to be starting him in 12 teamers. Stuckey seems to be developing chemistry with his new quarterback, but don’t expect much more than a few looks and catches each week from him in this shaky offense.

The Atlanta Falcons addressed the season-ending injury to WR Harry Douglas today when they signed WRs Robert Ferguson and Marty Booker.

The Kansas City Chiefs also made a change, claiming QB Matt Gutierrez off waivers from the Patriots. To make room for him, they cut QB Ingle Martin.

The Houston Texans placed RB Jeremiah Johnson on Injured Reserve. To replace him, they signed RB Andre Hall.

Carolina Panthers

Jake Delhomme is jumping up and down complaining to the referee that a pass interference penalty should have been called. His left knee gives out and he is lost for the season. Josh McCown is now the starting quarterback. How does this affect your fantasy team? Below is a player by player break down.

Jake Delhomme- He is injured and out for the season.

Josh McCown- McCown doesn’t have impressive numbers. In 9 games in 2007 for the Oakland Raiders he only threw for 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns. McCown has good arm strength but limited accuracy. With the Panthers main strength being the running game I wouldn’t consider McCown as a productive fantasy starter.

DeAngelo Williams- With a less effective quarterback Williams will be called on a lot. I expect Williams to get a lot more touches than Jonathan Stewart. The reason behind this is due to Williams’s big play and pass catching ability as well as his better than average pass blocking ability. However, an injury to Delhomme will have a negative affect on Williams’s overall fantasy numbers.

Jonathan Stewart- There will be a lot more focus on the running game but as I talked about earlier I expect it to lower Stewart’s touches and time spent on the field. Williams is a much better pass receiver and blocker.

Steve Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, Dwayne Jarrett, Jeff King- I don’t expect a drastic drop in Steve Smith’s numbers. McCown’s strong arm will provided Smith with the opportunity to capitalize on the deep pass. Muhammad, Jarrett, and King will suffer from McCown’s lack of accuracy because these three are more possession receivers.

John Kasay- I don’t expect a major change in the kicking game’s production.

Carolina Defense- Expect the same numbers to be put up by the defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is going to be one of the more interesting quarterback battles. Byron Leftwich, Luke McCown, and rookie Josh Freeman all have legitimate shots at starting. I am going to leave the breakdown of each quarterback for another time but ill discuss how each may affect the other players.

Derrick Ward, Ernest Graham, Cadillac Williams- Best case scenario for the running backs would be Leftwich or McCown starting. These two are veteran quarterbacks that may strike more fear into defenses. Of these two Leftwich would scare the defenses more due to his powerful arm. However, there is not going to be much change in production either way.

Antonio Bryant, Michael Clayton, Maurice Stovall- Bryant would benefit more from Leftwich starting due to his strong arm and Bryant’s deep threat ability. Clayton is more of a possession receiver and would benefit from McCown’s better accuracy and ability to keep plays alive with his legs.

Kellen Winslow, Jeremy Stevens- Winslow is going to be a major focus point of the offense no matter who is the starting quarterback.

Matt Bryant- I don’t expect a major change in the kicking game’s production.

Tampa Bay Defense- Expect the same numbers to be put up by the defense.

Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan walks into the locker room to find Michael Vick wearing his uniform. A fist fight occurs and Ryan breaks his hand and is lost for the season. How does this affect your fantasy team? Below is a player by player break down.

Matt Ryan- injured

Chris Redmond- Redman is not going to put up starting fantasy quarterback numbers. He is able to keep a team afloat until a starter returns but is basically useless for a fantasy owner.

Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood- With Redman at quarterback Turner will receive more than expected carries. Expect more total yards and touchdowns because Turner now becomes the offenses best weapon. I expect Norwood to get more opportunities. The Atlanta offense will need more player makers on the field and Norwood’s speed makes him a playmaker. Norwood will see a lot more touches in both the running and passing game.

Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, Harry Douglas- The Atlanta offense will be more run oriented with Redman at the helm. Roddy White is still a must start most weeks but Jenkins fantasy value will drop significantly. Overall I see a drop in production from this group.

Tony Gonzalez- Gonzalez will become the best receiving option for the Falcons. Redman’s limited big play ability will slow the down field passing game. Look for more intermediate routes which favors more production for Gonzalez.

Jason Elam- I expect about the same amount of points for the kicking game. There will be more field goal attempts but less extra point attempts. This will even out keeping Elam’s projected stats and actual stats at about the same.
Atlanta Defense- Expect the same numbers to be put up by the defense.

New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees slips while getting out of the tub and breaks his wrist. 38 year old Mark Brunell is now he starting quarterback. How does this affect your fantasy team? Below is a player by player break down.

Drew Brees- Taking showers from now on!

Mark Brunell- Not an option to start for your fantasy team. The New Orleans offense has a lot of weapons but it’s doubtful that Brunell could take advantage.

Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush- The New Orleans offense depends on Brees and now this already weak running game will get worse. Defenses will creep closer to the line of scrimmage because they do not fear Mark Brunell. I expect Bush to still get a lot of opportunities in the passing game but again not what they would have been with Brees running the show.

Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson- Henderson will be the one to suffer the most from the loss of Brees. His deep threat ability will be neutralized due to Brunell’s lack of arm strength. Colston and Moore will have their opportunities but I expect a significant drop in Moore’s numbers from last year. Colston has a shot at putting up #2 fantasy receiver numbers (if he can stay healthy). His size and ability demands that balls be thrown his way.

Jeremy Shockey- Shockey will get plenty of attention from Brunell. I think his overall numbers will suffer without Brees but I still think he will be a top 10 fantasy tight end.

Garrett Hartley- The kicking game fantasy totals will have a major drop. With Brees at the quarterback position the New Orleans offense is a well oiled machine. With Brunell it moves as fast as an old man slipping into a hot bath (Seinfeld reference).

New Orleans Defense- If they are your starting defense you’re in trouble but I don’t expect much of a difference in the defensive production.