We will kick off the AFC East with the Buffalo Bills. This team has been the in the basement of the division for quite some time, but added some flash to the roster this offseason with the selection of CJ Spiller in the NFL Draft. The team did not, however, address the quarterback position and failed to replace Terrell Owens and Josh Reed, who were the team’s WR1 and WR3, respectively, in 2009. Buffalo was one of the few teams to make a change at Head Coach this offseason, welcoming Chan Gailey to town.

Fred Jackson will be the team's top running back again this season, but Marshawn Lynch and CJ Spiller negatively impact his fantasy value.

QB: Trent Edwards : 283-of-457, 3059 yards, 16 TD, 15 INT, 30 carries, 120 yards, 1 TD – Edwards will battle it out with Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brian Brohm for the starting gig. Edwards appears to be the favorite, but it’s a camp battle to watch. Regardless of who does, in fact, end up starting, you shouldn’t bother drafting any of these this year.

RB: Fred Jackson : 232 carries, 1044 yards, 6 TD, 46 targets, 35 receptions, 279 yards, TD – One would have to imagine that the Bills will try to get Marshawn Lynch (not yet traded and might not get traded, but rumor is he could be traded) at least a few looks a game if he is still in town this fall. This will hurt Jackson’s production. The addition of Spiller also does a number on Jackson’s value, especially in PPR formats where Spiller is expected to take over more of the 3rd down and long work. Still, Jackson is a sold RB2 in all formats. He can approach RB1 status if Lynch is traded.

RB: CJ Spiller : 107 carries, 483 yards, 3 TD, 61 targets, 45 receptions, 407 yards, 2 TD – Spiller will play second fiddle to Jackson in terms of carries, but will still approach 150 touches because of the impact he should make in the passing game. I compare Spiller very much to Reggie Bush in that he can’t be expected to handle a full offensive load. Instead, expect Spiller to be more of a situational player, which will certainly limit his fantasy value for years to come.

WR: Lee Evans : 127 targets, 65 receptions, 947 yards, 7 TD – Evans has fantasy value simply because he is the team’s only respectable receiving option at wide receiver or tight end right now. Owens is gone, which returns Evans to his role as the WR1. Still, this offense won’t be spectacular and should rely heavily on the run, which makes him a risky pick.

WR: Steve Johnson : 76 targets, 42 receptions, 485 yards, 3 TD
WR: James Hardy : 61 targets, 36 receptions, 398 yards, 2 TD – Someone has to take over the WR2 role and Johnson is the favorite as of today. His main competition for the job will be Hardy. Regardless, neither should make much fantasy impact in 2010 except in the deepest of leagues.

TE: Shawn Nelson : 51 targets, 31 receptions, 312 yards, 2 TD – Derek Fine is gone, which means Nelson will have a chance to beat out Derek Schouman and win the TE1 job. Still, Buffalo is unlikely to pass to the tight end position much and the position is very deep in fantasy circles this season. He’s not worth a look on draft day.

The Kansas City Chiefs have agreed to terms with WR Amani Toomer. He will likely slide into the team’s WR4 slot behind Dwayne Bowe, Mark Bradley, and Bobby Engram.

Other NFL Transactions affecting the Fantasy Depth Charts:

• WR Aundrae Allison was waived by the Minnesota Vikings.
• QB Andrew Walter was signed by the New England Patriots to replace QB Matt Gutierrez, who was cut.
• TE Richard Owens was cut by the New York Jets
• WR PK Sam was cut by the Buffalo Bills

Update: The Jets have claimed Allison off waivers from the Vikings.

* Note: This article does not contain any projections by the author or any staff of FantasyDC. This article instead seeks to show that through small variable changes, the possibility of big fantasy production changes are available. As a conclusion to this article, it is shown that the number of pass attempts Edwards is given may be the greatest measure of his fantasy value.

Many people are struggling to project and place Trent Edwards. These struggles are justified since the addition of Terrell Owens can drastically change a team for the better or not change it at all. Throughout this article we will create different setups/assumptions and see the projected outcomes. The biggest of these assumptions will be that the Buffalo Bills will increase their number of passing attempts this year.

Lets start out by looking at Edwards numbers from last year but keep in mind he did not play in every game. Attempts: 374, Completed: 245, Comp %: 65.5, Yards: 2699, Avg/Att: 7.2, Avg/Comp: 11, TD: 11, INT: 10. These numbers don’t ring out successful but some encouraging stats are his avg and comp %. Edwards average attempts per game last year was 26.7. I’m going to include a modeled two more games to project his attempts last year at 427. This would have placed him 20th in QB attempts. Lets now create 3 setups with their own unique assumptions while assuming his averages stay the same.

1. Bills throw 2 more time a game (the most realistic):

- Edwards total passes increase to 459. Maintaining his pass comp %, he completes 300 passes. He will obtain 3300 yards.

2. Bills throw 4 more times a game:

- Edwards total passes increases to 491 (would have ranked 11th last year). Maintaining his pass comp %, he completes 322 passes. He will obtain 3542 yards.

3. Bills throw 6 more times a game (far fetched for any team):

- Edwards total passes increases to 523 (would have ranked 8th last year, one more than Favre). Maintaining his pass comp %, he completes 343 passes (would have ranked 6th last year, tied with Favre). He will obtain 3773 Yards.

But we can’t stop there. We would be remiss to ignore the effects TO has on QBs. When TO joined the Eagles, McNabbs AVG went up almost a full yard per attempt. Likewise his competition % went up (though it should be noted it was still lower than Edwards last year). Lets try and model some increases for Edwards and what those results could lead to. We’ll look at the 2 & 4 more pass attempts per game. The increase in pass completions does not show up very much but will be included anyway.

1. Avg/Att: 7.6, Comp %: 66

- With 459 attempts, he manages 302 completions. He obtains 3488 yards.

2. Avg/Att: 7.9, Comp %: 66.3

- With 459 attempts, he manages 304 completions. He obtains 3626 yards.

3. Avg/Att: 8.2, Comp %: 66.5

- With 459 attempts, he manages 305 completions. He obtains 3763 yards.

4. Avg/Att: 7.6, Comp %: 66

- With 491 attempts, he manages 324 completions. He obtains 3731 yards.

5. Avg/Att: 7.9, Comp %: 66.3

- With 491 attempts, he manages 326 completions. He obtains 3879 yards.

6. Avg/Att: 8.2, Comp %: 66.5

- With 491 attempts, he manages 327 completions. He obtains 4026 yards.

It becomes pretty obvious pretty quickly that Edwards’ efficiency provides a large room for production. Now don’t be confused, I’m purposely demonstrating how quickly and easily Edwards production can increase. Things we haven’t touched on? Will Edwards be able to maintain his comp % with more attempts, will his TD/Att increase? Or more importantly, will his INT/Att decrease? You can obviously see how if TO helps Edwards TD/INT ratio, Edwards starts looking like a steal late in drafts. Do your own analysis. Put your own numbers behind it. I’d love to read, hear your comments. Or perhaps you’d like to see another player broken down statistically like this? E-mail me at joshua.torrey@gmail.com or hit me up on Twitter (@jmtorrey).

Last Update: 9/5/2009

Quarterbacks:

Trent Edwards
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Gibran Hamdan

Runningbacks:

Marshawn Lynch
Fred Jackson
Xavier Omon
Corey McIntyre (FB)

Wide Receivers:

Terrell Owens
Lee Evans
Josh Reed
Roscoe Parrish
Steve Johnson
Justin Jenkins

Tight Ends:

Derek Schouman
Derek Fine
Shawn Nelson*

Kickers:

Rian Lindell

*Rookie