The run-heavy Panthers struggled with injuries and a dysfunctional quarterback in 2009 and failed to make the playoffs a season after earning a first round bye. Jake Delhomme was released and will be replaced by either Matt Moore or 2010 draft selection Jimmy Clausen. There were no changes at the top four running back positions, but the team will hope DeAngelo Williams can stay healthy this time around, which would give the Panthers arguably the league’s best one-two attack at running back. Muhsin Muhammad retired, which leaves the WR2 job behind Steve Smith to either 2010 draft selection Brandon LaFell or the underachieving Dwayne Jarrett. David Gettis and college quarterback Armanti Edwards were also drafted and will look to make an impact at wide receiver. The team’s entire three-headed attack at tight end returns in 2010.

DeAngelo Williams (34) is still a top 12 running back option despite sharing the carries with Jonathan Stewart.

QB: Matt Moore : 258-of-423, 3048 yards, 18 TD, 11 INT, 32 carries, 32 yards, 1 TD – The assumption here is that Moore will start all 16 games in 2010. Regardless of who is behind center (Moore or Clausen), this team will be extremely run heavy and the quarterback’s value is extremely limited. Add to the equation that the quarterback’s receiving options are underwhelming to say the least after Steve Smith and there isn’t much to get excited about. Don’t bother with Moore or Clausen in standard redraft leagues.

RB: DeAngelo Williams : 247 carries, 1236 yards, 9 TD, 48 targets, 34 receptions, 275 yards, 1 TD – Although Jonathan Stewart will cut significantly into his carries, this team will run the ball so often that Williams is still a RB1 in most formats. Williams should see close to 250 carries and 30 receptions, which is more touches than will be seen by many backs who don’t have the best RB2 in the game on their tail. If you’re someone who likes to have his star running backs’ handcuff rostered, however, remember that you’ll have to waste another pick in a round or two to get your hands on Stewart. That’s a recipe for disaster.

RB: Jonathan Stewart : 184 carries, 920 yards, 8 TD, 22 targets, 15 receptions, 118 yards – Stewart would be a no-brainer as a top 10 pick if he wasn’t stuck behind Williams. He showed how good he is late in the 2009 season when his counterpart was out of commission, but Williams is still one of the best backs in the game and will continue to see a few more touches than Stewart each game. Regardless, Stewart has value as a RB3 and is a borderline backend RB2 in standard scoring leagues.

WR: Steve L. Smith : 127 targets, 70 receptions, 1055 yards, 7 TD – Smith was on public record that he wanted the team to bring another WR1 into town. The team did draft three receivers, but none of them have a chance to pass Smith on the depth chart in 2010. As mentioned, this team will run as much as possible, but when they do throw, most of the passes will go to Smith. In fact, Smith will be one of the most relied on receivers in terms of percentage of targets in the NFL. That will allow him to stay in the top 15 fantasy WR conversation.

WR: Brandon LaFell : 48 targets, 27 receptions, 373 yards, 2 TD – LaFell should easily win the WR2 job, but will be lucky to see 50 targets. He should not be on fantasy radars in redraft leagues.

TE: Dante Rosario : 44 targets, 25 receptions, 297 yards, 2 TD – Rosario is not worth consideration in most leagues, but those of you in deep dynasty leagues should be keeping an eye on Gary Barnidge. He sat behind Rosario and Jeff King in 2009, his rookie season, but has TE2 potential if he gets more playing time.

Recommended by ‘The Fifth Down’ blog on the website of the New York Times.

Some player notes from around the NFL:

Quinton Ganther/Marcus Mason – Ganther and Mason appear to be rotating as the spell back in Washington while Rock Cartwright is the feature back. Neither has much value, especially considering Portis should return over the next few weeks.

Devin Thomas – Another Redskin who is seeing an increase in playing time, Thomas has been targeted 17 times over the last 3 games and is quietly taking over as the 2nd most productive WR in Washington. Keep an eye on him, but he is unlikely to be fantasy relevant this season.

Matt Moore – Moore is the new starting QB in Carolina with Delhomme gone to the bench. Considering Moore’s inexperience and the fact that Carolina is the 3rd run-heaviest team in the NFL, you shouldn’t expect him to be relied on much, which means he isn’t even worth a bench spot in most leagues.

Dante Rosario – 7 targets each of the last 2 weeks for the tight end, but he’s still sharing the tight end load with Jeff King and Gary Barnidge. Also consider that the team throws the ball very little and they are making a change at quarterback. He’s not worth your time.

Jermichael Finley – Fellow TE Donald Lee scored the only touchdown by a Packers’TE in week 12, but Finley was targeted more (6-to-4) and is averaging around 7 looks a game when healthy. The Packers offense is on a roll and Finley will be a big part of it down the stretch. Unless you have a top tight end, he’s someone to consider starting.

Kahlil Bell – Bell burst onto the scene when he put up 81 yards on 4 carries 2 weeks ago, but he carried it just once in week 12. His only value right now is as a handcuff to Matt Forte.

Justin Forsett – Forsett is now owned in most leagues, but consider that Julius Jones will be back at some point. It’s hard to say whether or not the team will give Jones his starting job back, but you have to imagine Forsett has earned a bigger share of the workload. Keep an eye on each player’s looks once Jones returns.

Sam Aiken – Aiken was actually the team’s leading receiver in week 12 with 10 targets, 7 catches, and 80 yards, but note that Julian Edelman was inactive and that Wes Welker and Randy Moss are both still on the roster. Aiken is unlikely to approach those numbers again this season, but will continue to have at least some value as the slot receiver in this pass heavy offense.

Lex Hilliard – 13 total looks over the last 2 games isn’t much, but consider that the only thing between him and the starting RB job on the league’s 2nd-run heaviest team is an injury to 32-year-old Ricky Williams.

Considering his situation, Lex Hilliard should be considered for a spot on your bench in most leagues.

Mike Thomas – Will continue to be overshadowed by Mike Sims-Walker and Torry Holt, but consider that he’s caught 83% of passes thrown his way (best in the NFL for WRs with 30+ targets) and is only a rookie. He’s seeing 5-6 looks most weeks and should be considered a sleeper to explode if he sees more action late this season.

Larry Johnson/Bernard Scott – Johnson put up 100 rushing yards in week 12 and Scott has over 200 rushing yards the last 2 weeks, but don’t kid yourself. When Cedric Benson is healthy and returns to action, he will a majority of the carries. At that point, you should expect only 3-6 carries a game for each, which means very little fantasy value.

Chris Jennings – Jerome Harrison was active in 12 after spending a few weeks as a health scratch so that Jennings could have a shot at the RB2 role. This bumped Jennings back to the RB3 role and it’s anyone’s guess what Mangini will do going forward. Regardless, Jennings is not a player you should be rostering.

UPDATE: (Wednesday Dec 2) – It appears that Jamal Lewis will be heading to IR, which means Jennings could now be the starter in Cleveland. Snatch him up before someone else does if you’re in a deep league or desperate for RB help.

Chris Chambers – Chambers is probably owned in your league, but it’s worth noting that he has caught 74% of the 23 balls thrown his direction since joining the Chiefs and has scored on almost 18% of those catches. Although the fact that he was targeted a total of only 9 times over his first 2 games in KC was a concern, Cassel has now thrown his way 14 times total over the last 2 games.

Malcom Floyd – The man who replaced Chambers as a starter in San Diego is not seeing the same success that Chambers is enjoying in Kansas City. Floyd is being targeted only 3-5 times a game and although he did put up 85 yards in week 12, it was on only 3 catches (4 targets). Floyd has potential in this potent offense, but right now he’s not seeing enough looks.

Darren McFadden/Justin Fargas/Michael Bush – The Raiders running back situation might be the hardest unit to dissect in the league. Fargas wasn’t even active early in the year when McFadden and Bush were carrying most of the workload, but now Fargas seems to be the top runner of the group (sounds a lot like 2008-09) having carried it a team-high 20 total times over the last 2 games. McFadden has been the better bet in PPR leagues, however, over the last 2 weeks, racking up 9 looks and 7 catches despite only 12 carries. Bush, meanwhile, has only 7 looks (all carries) over the last 2 weeks.

Carolina Panthers

Jake Delhomme is jumping up and down complaining to the referee that a pass interference penalty should have been called. His left knee gives out and he is lost for the season. Josh McCown is now the starting quarterback. How does this affect your fantasy team? Below is a player by player break down.

Jake Delhomme- He is injured and out for the season.

Josh McCown- McCown doesn’t have impressive numbers. In 9 games in 2007 for the Oakland Raiders he only threw for 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns. McCown has good arm strength but limited accuracy. With the Panthers main strength being the running game I wouldn’t consider McCown as a productive fantasy starter.

DeAngelo Williams- With a less effective quarterback Williams will be called on a lot. I expect Williams to get a lot more touches than Jonathan Stewart. The reason behind this is due to Williams’s big play and pass catching ability as well as his better than average pass blocking ability. However, an injury to Delhomme will have a negative affect on Williams’s overall fantasy numbers.

Jonathan Stewart- There will be a lot more focus on the running game but as I talked about earlier I expect it to lower Stewart’s touches and time spent on the field. Williams is a much better pass receiver and blocker.

Steve Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, Dwayne Jarrett, Jeff King- I don’t expect a drastic drop in Steve Smith’s numbers. McCown’s strong arm will provided Smith with the opportunity to capitalize on the deep pass. Muhammad, Jarrett, and King will suffer from McCown’s lack of accuracy because these three are more possession receivers.

John Kasay- I don’t expect a major change in the kicking game’s production.

Carolina Defense- Expect the same numbers to be put up by the defense.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is going to be one of the more interesting quarterback battles. Byron Leftwich, Luke McCown, and rookie Josh Freeman all have legitimate shots at starting. I am going to leave the breakdown of each quarterback for another time but ill discuss how each may affect the other players.

Derrick Ward, Ernest Graham, Cadillac Williams- Best case scenario for the running backs would be Leftwich or McCown starting. These two are veteran quarterbacks that may strike more fear into defenses. Of these two Leftwich would scare the defenses more due to his powerful arm. However, there is not going to be much change in production either way.

Antonio Bryant, Michael Clayton, Maurice Stovall- Bryant would benefit more from Leftwich starting due to his strong arm and Bryant’s deep threat ability. Clayton is more of a possession receiver and would benefit from McCown’s better accuracy and ability to keep plays alive with his legs.

Kellen Winslow, Jeremy Stevens- Winslow is going to be a major focus point of the offense no matter who is the starting quarterback.

Matt Bryant- I don’t expect a major change in the kicking game’s production.

Tampa Bay Defense- Expect the same numbers to be put up by the defense.

Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan walks into the locker room to find Michael Vick wearing his uniform. A fist fight occurs and Ryan breaks his hand and is lost for the season. How does this affect your fantasy team? Below is a player by player break down.

Matt Ryan- injured

Chris Redmond- Redman is not going to put up starting fantasy quarterback numbers. He is able to keep a team afloat until a starter returns but is basically useless for a fantasy owner.

Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood- With Redman at quarterback Turner will receive more than expected carries. Expect more total yards and touchdowns because Turner now becomes the offenses best weapon. I expect Norwood to get more opportunities. The Atlanta offense will need more player makers on the field and Norwood’s speed makes him a playmaker. Norwood will see a lot more touches in both the running and passing game.

Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, Harry Douglas- The Atlanta offense will be more run oriented with Redman at the helm. Roddy White is still a must start most weeks but Jenkins fantasy value will drop significantly. Overall I see a drop in production from this group.

Tony Gonzalez- Gonzalez will become the best receiving option for the Falcons. Redman’s limited big play ability will slow the down field passing game. Look for more intermediate routes which favors more production for Gonzalez.

Jason Elam- I expect about the same amount of points for the kicking game. There will be more field goal attempts but less extra point attempts. This will even out keeping Elam’s projected stats and actual stats at about the same.
Atlanta Defense- Expect the same numbers to be put up by the defense.

New Orleans Saints

Drew Brees slips while getting out of the tub and breaks his wrist. 38 year old Mark Brunell is now he starting quarterback. How does this affect your fantasy team? Below is a player by player break down.

Drew Brees- Taking showers from now on!

Mark Brunell- Not an option to start for your fantasy team. The New Orleans offense has a lot of weapons but it’s doubtful that Brunell could take advantage.

Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush- The New Orleans offense depends on Brees and now this already weak running game will get worse. Defenses will creep closer to the line of scrimmage because they do not fear Mark Brunell. I expect Bush to still get a lot of opportunities in the passing game but again not what they would have been with Brees running the show.

Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson- Henderson will be the one to suffer the most from the loss of Brees. His deep threat ability will be neutralized due to Brunell’s lack of arm strength. Colston and Moore will have their opportunities but I expect a significant drop in Moore’s numbers from last year. Colston has a shot at putting up #2 fantasy receiver numbers (if he can stay healthy). His size and ability demands that balls be thrown his way.

Jeremy Shockey- Shockey will get plenty of attention from Brunell. I think his overall numbers will suffer without Brees but I still think he will be a top 10 fantasy tight end.

Garrett Hartley- The kicking game fantasy totals will have a major drop. With Brees at the quarterback position the New Orleans offense is a well oiled machine. With Brunell it moves as fast as an old man slipping into a hot bath (Seinfeld reference).

New Orleans Defense- If they are your starting defense you’re in trouble but I don’t expect much of a difference in the defensive production.

Last Update: 9/5/2009

Quarterbacks:

Jake Delhomme
Josh McCown
Matt Moore

Runningbacks:

DeAngelo Williams
Jonathan Stewart
Mike Goodson*
Brad Hoover (FB)
Tony Fiammetta* (FB)

Wide Receivers:

Steve Smith
Muhsin Muhammad
Kenny Moore
Dwayne Jarrett

Tight Ends:

Gary Barnidge*
Jeff King
Dante Rosario
Kevin Brock

Kickers:

John Kasay
Rhys Lloyd

*Rookie