I’m a believer that the most important day of a fantasy football season is draft day. Sure, it matters what players you start on a week-to-week basis, but it all comes down to what players you have on your roster. The deeper your roster is filled with talent, the better.

I also believe that the first two rounds of the draft are over-hyped. They are definitely the most exciting rounds, but you really can’t mess up a pick that much early on in the draft. When the draft is over, you feel like a winner if you love your stars, have confidence in your backups, and have faith in the players you gambled on.

One thing every fantasy footballer loves is to get a good “steal”. Let’s take a look at some players you will be able to find later on in the draft that could end up saving your season.

Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots. Julian Edelman isn’t exactly a number one or two fantasy receiver right now, but he could be a viable flex option. While all signs are positive on Wes Welker’s surgically repaired knee, Edelman will no doubt have a bigger role this upcoming season.

When filling in for Welker last season, Edelman produced solid fantasy numbers. In Week 2, he hauled in 8 passes for 98 yards and in Week 17 he caught 10 for 103 yards. He was also able to catch 6 balls for 44 yards and scored both of the Patriots touchdowns in the postseason loss to the Ravens.

Should Welker miss the start of the season, there is no doubt in my mind Edelman will step in and fill the gap. Even when Welker does return, Edelman’s numbers might not take a huge hit. The Patriots often run 4 or 5-wideout sets and are great at spreading the ball around.

Edelman will be available in almost all drafts in the closing rounds and should not be overlooked. I wouldn’t expect loads of touchdowns from him, but he will prove to be a solid backup and/or flex option…even more so in PPR leagues.

Devin Hester, Devin Aromashodu, Johnny Knox, WRs, Chicago Bears. No, I’m not saying draft all three. In fact, until the first few preseason games have been played, it’s a little unclear which one of these guys will be Jay Cutler’s first choice. Perhaps that isn’t a great thing, but we are looking for good late round steals, not top-5 picks.

The most important thing to keep in mind while drafting a Bears wide receiver this year is that Mike Martz is the new offensive coordinator. Martz love to air it out, and that will greatly benefit all parties involved from a fantasy standpoint.

Hester was the number one option last season, catching a respectable 57 passes for 757 yards while missing three whole games. He did only score 3 touchdowns though, two of which came in the first few games of the season. Knox led the trio with 5 touchdowns last season and had 527 yards but was inconsistent.

The biggest dark horse of the three seems to be Aromashodu. In the last four weeks of last season, he hauled in 22 catches for 282 yards and 4 touchdowns. He definitely seemed to find some sort of a connection with Cutler, which figures to carry over into next season.

All three of these player’s numbers will rise next year for two simple reasons. Mike Martz really does like to pass the ball, and Jay Cutler has one year of experience of playing with these guys under his belt. The Bears do spend Weeks 14 and 16 outdoors in Chicago, but they get a Week 15 game in a dome at Minnesota, who has shaky pass coverage at best.

If in doubt, draft a player on the…Saints. This is certainly not a draft strategy to follow for all rounds, but the point is to never overlook the importance of what team a player is on. 19 different players scored a total of 72 touchdowns for the Saints last season. That is an average of 4.5 touchdowns a game. They also had six players with over 5 touchdowns (Mike Bell, Darren Sharper, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem).

If you are in a middle or late round and debating between two players you feel are of equal value, take a look at the team they play on. More chances a team your player is on has to score equates to more chances your player has to score.

Sophomore Slump? You always hear of media talking about a sophomore slump that quarterbacks experience, but does it also affect their fantasy performances?

Matt Ryan averaged 215 yards a game and threw 16 touchdowns in his first year. Last year, while missing two games, he averaged 208 yards and threw 22 touchdowns. He completed two less passes last season (remember, he missed two games), but his completion percentage dropped nearly 3%.

Joe Flacco averaged 185 yards a game and threw 14 touchdowns his first year while averaging 225 yards a game and tossed 21 touchdowns last year. He threw 71 more passes in his second season as well.

Neither one of those players suffered any sophomore slump from a fantasy standpoint. In fact, their fantasy value rose significantly in the touchdown department. Both quarterbacks were allowed to throw the ball a little bit more, as they each saw their attempts rise. Like I said earlier, the more chances players get to score…the more they score.

This year’s sophomore quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, should expect to see their fantasy stock rise as well. In fact, neither Stafford nor Sanchez has anywhere to go but up from a fantasy standpoint. They both threw under 2,500 yards and Stafford threw 13 touchdowns to Sanchez’s 12. Stafford did only start 10 games, but that makes the 20 interceptions he threw look worse.

Both Stafford and Sanchez have solid supporting casts around them. Stafford has one of the best receivers in the game in Calvin Johnson, and has other offensive weapons such as Brandon Pettigrew and Jahvid Best at his disposal.

It’s no secret what the Jets have done in the off-season, adding Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes to line up across from Braylon Edwards, who caught 16 touchdowns in 2007. The addition of Ladanian Tomlinson will help Sanchez’s fantasy value as well, as Tomlinson is one of the best out-of-the-backfield backs to ever play the game.

Neither one of these guys will be in the first wave of quarterbacks taken off the board, but they are definitely strong backups worthy of starter consideration based on their matchups on a week-to-week basis.

Kevin Kolb will prove he is the real deal with a strong 2010 season.

Considering I’m a probabilities/numbers guy, bold predictions are never easy to come up with. Still, there is a qualitative side to fantasy football and that in itself will always allow me to love/hate guys more than the consensus. That being said, here are a few bold predictions based on my current 2010 projections:

1. Andre Johnson and Wes Welker will finish 2010 as the top scoring PPR wide receivers – Projecting such a finish for Andre Johnson is anything but bold, but Wes Welker at number two should grab your attention. Many are extremely skeptical that Welker can be back in uniform by week 1, but recent reports seem to indicate otherwise. I’m predicting a slow start to the season for him, but he will be back to his old self by week 3-4 and will end up with 120 receptions and 1,300 yards. Considering Welker’s recent ADP, he will still be on the board when you are up in round 4. Don’t pass him up.

2. Devin Hester will lead the Bears in receptions en route to a top 20 fantasy season among WRs – There is a ton of buzz surrounding Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu, but don’t overlook the veteran playmaker Hester. The former Miami Hurricane averaged 4.4 receptions/game last season, which translates to 70 receptions in 16 games. Mike Martz is in town to tune an already pass heavy offense, Jay Cutler will improve his interception rate, and the Cutler-Hester connection now has a season under its belt. Considering Hester will, again, be the WR1 in what should be the league’s pass heaviest offense, he’s looking at statistics in the area of 70 catches, 1,000 yards, and 6 scores.

3. Kevin Kolb will prove to be the real deal – Many consider Kolb to be a backend starting QB in 12 team leagues this year. The bold have him as a borderline top 5 option thanks to the Eagles potent offensive attack, while the naysayers say he is too inexperienced and risky to rely on as a QB1. Although I think a top 5 finish would be pushing the envelope, I will be completely shocked if Kolb plays all 16 games and ends up outside the top 12. We know the Eagles will pass the ball a ton, we know he’s already produced when asked to do so, and we know a few talented, young-but-not-rookie quarterbacks who have been fantasy gold over the last few seasons. In 2008, his first season as the starter, 25 year old and 3 year vet Aaron Rodgers was third in scoring among quarterbacks. In 2006, also his first season as a starter, 25 year old and 2 year vet Philip Rivers ranked 8th among quarterbacks. In 2010, his first season as a full-time starter, 26 year old and 3 year vet Kevin Kolb will prove he is one of the more talented quarterbacks in the league. It will lead him to a top 8 finish among quarterbacks.

4. Superbowl XLV will match the Ravens with the Packers – This one isn’t Fantasy Football related, but these are the two teams I’m currently highest on in each conference. Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers , Ray Rice and Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings and Anquan Boldin. JerMichael Finley and Derrick Mason. Talk about some fantasy firepower in the big game! Who will win? How about Green Bay 38, Baltimore 34. Nothing like a shootout on Superbowl Sunday.

Next up is the Chicago Bears.

Mike Martz has been hired as the team’s new offensive coordinator, but will he really make much of a difference considering this team was already one of the league’s pass heaviest teams? Yes, he will. Although the team will have a hard time passing more than they did last season, where the passes will be delivered will be the difference. Martz is known for not utlizing the tight end in the pass game (bad news for Greg Olsen), but does put pass-catching RBs to good use (good news for Matt Forte).

Mike Martz takes over the Chicago offense in 2010.

QB : Jay Cutler : 358-of-577 , 4077 yards , 27 TD , 22 INT , 41 carries , 164 yards , 1 TD – Cutler will rack up the pass attempts and yards, but had a serious interception issue last season, which, if not corrected, will hold him back. Furthermore, Martz offenses are known for giving up a ton of sacks, which will mean more big plays, but more of a beatdown on Cutler. Think Aaron Rodgers early in 2009.

RB: Matt Forte : 216 carries, 822 yards, 5 TD, 54 targets, 42 receptions, 336 yards, 1 TD – Forte has not run the ball well in his 2 seasons in Chicago, averaging well below 4.0 YPC both seasons (4.1 is league average). He has, however, been a pass-catching machine, which means big things in a Martz-run offense. The addition of Chester Taylor hurts his fantasy value somewhat, but he will still be the lead back.
RB: Chester Taylor : 90 carries, 358 yards, 3 TD, 71 targets, 55 receptions, 491 yards, 2 TD – The underrated Taylor was the starter in Minnesota before the team could not pass up Adrian Peterson in the 2007 NFL Draft. After spending the last 3 seasons as Peterson’s backup and the Vikings’ third down back, he will take on a similar role in Chicago. Look for Forte to handle a larger share of the carries, but for Taylor to catch more passes.

WR: Devin Hester : 119 targets , 72 receptions , 976 yards, 6 TD – Hester appears to be locked into the WR1 role, which bodes well for his fantasy stock. The speedster could be in for a top 20 fantasy season at wide receiver if he sees at least 20% of the team’s targets as projected.

WR: Johnny Knox : 113 targets , 63 receptions , 757 yards , 5 TD – Locked into the WR2 job already, Knox will have plenty of opportunities to put up big fantasy points in 2010. The second-year receiver showed a ton of potential in his rookie season, is a starter in a pass-happy offense, and now has a year under his belt in the league and with his quarterback of the short and long term in Jay Cutler.

WR: Devin Aromashodu : 101 targets , 56 receptions , 706 yards , 6 TD – Was Cutler’s favorite target down the stretch last season, but Hester and Knox were out with injuries during most of that span. Regardless, he is in for an expanded workload as the WR3 and could have a breakout season if he works his way even further up the depth chart.

WR: Earl Bennett : 65 targets, 38 receptions, 500 yards, 2 TD – It appears that Bennett will end up as the WR4, but will be one of the most targeted WR4′s in the game. Although he isn’t a top 70 WR when everyone is healthy, he’s worth a bench spot in very deep leagues considering his increase in value if one of the top three go down.

TE: Greg Olsen : 54 targets , 31 receptions , 324 yards, 3 TD – After leading this team in targets in 2010, Olsen is in for a significantly lower workload in 2010 with Martz in town. Consider that the projection above would actually go down as one of the best of all-time for a tight end in a Martz offense. Lovie Smith and Martz have said that they will keep Olsen involved, but we heard the same thing about Vernon Davis 2 years ago. There’s little reason to believe he will be an impact fantasy tight end, so let someone else take the chance.

Much has been said about the Bears hiring of Mike Martz as their new Offensive Coordinator. Regardless of whether or not you feel the hiring will translate into wins for the franchise, one thing is for sure: the Bears will throw the football…a lot.

New Chicago Bears Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz brings his high-powered offense to the Windy City in 2010.

Now that might not seem like much of a change if you watched this squad in 2009. The Cutler-led Bears threw the ball on 58% of their offensive snaps (4% were sacks, 38% runs), which was good enough to place them as the 4th pass-heaviest team in the NFL behind only Arizona, Seattle, and Indianapolis. I took the time to break down the boxscore of every game since 1999 where Martz was a team’s Head Coach or Offensive Coordinator. His average Pass:Run:Sack ratio over those 8,757 plays was 58 % pass, 37% run, 5 % sack. The first thing that should jump out at you is that 5% sack rate (yes, that’ s high. We’ll get to it later), but also note how close his pass:run ratio is to what the Bears put up in 2009. This tells me that we should expect about that ratio (if not more passing) in 2010.

Before I dig any deeper, let’s take a deeper look at my sample size. I consider 8,757 plays over 10 seasons to be plenty. The first 7 seasons come from his time in St. Louis. He was the Offensive Coordinator in 1999, before taking over as Head Coach in 2000, a job he held through 5 games into the 2005 season. Martz spent 2006 and 2007 as the Lions Offensive Coordinator and held the same post for the 49ers during the first 7 games of the 2008 season. Take a look at the team’s records and pass:run:sack splits during those 10 seasons. Note that I only include the games from 2005 and 2008 in which Martz was on staff.

Winning and running the ball a higher-than-average percentage of the time are tied together, but you should know by now that this is because good teams are generally ahead in the second half and will run the ball in order to keep the clock moving. The splits in Chart 1 show an obvious trend for Martz. Including only the 8 full seasons he coached, the team passed between 61-62% of the time the 3 seasons they were under .500. In the 5 other seasons, his team was .500 or better and passed between 53-58% of the time. His 2 best seasons in terms of record (1999 and 2001) were also the two seasons he passed the least (53% and 55 %, respectively).

I mentioned the sack rates earlier and now is a good time to come back to it considering you can still see Chart 1 on your screen. Note that the league average sack% was 4% 7 of the 8 seasons spanning from 1999-to-2006, but was closer to 3% from 2007-to-2009. That said, Martz’s clubs were near league average from 99-03 when Kurt Warner (with a side of Trent Green, Marc Bulger, and Jamie Martin) was leading his offense. It was all downhill from there. From 2004 on, Martz has not seen a sack% under 4.95% and has seen two as high as 7%. Marc Bulger (04-05) was responsible for 2 of those seasons, but Jon Kitna and J.T. O’Sullivan took the biggest beatings from 2006-to-2008.

What does all this mean to the Chicago Bears in 2010 (and possibly beyond)? Well that depends.
-Do you expect the Bears to win 10+ games? The offense will still pass a lot, but they’ll sit around the 56% mark. The sack rate will also be decent (for Martz’s standards) and should fall around 4%

-Think they’ll dangle around .500? A pass% closer to 59% is in order. Sack rate will dangle around 4.5-5%

-Expecting a top 5 draft pick next season? 62-63% of the team’s plays will be passes and Cutler will go down about 5.5% of the time.

Compare those responses to Chart 1 and you can see where they come from pretty easily. The moral of the story here is simple: the Bears, even if they’re winning and in a position to run, will still pass the ball a ton.

If you’re thinking about fantasy football right now, you just mentally downgraded Matt Forte and Chester Taylor and upgraded Jay Cutler, Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, Greg Olsen, etc. Not so fast!

Although Martz loves to throw, he’s very specific about who gets the looks. I dug a bit deeper to see what kind of share of those looks each position on the depth chart gets.

Read the full story

The biggest offseason change to the the Bears offense will be the addition of Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz.

Next up is the Chicago Bears.

Everyone is already talking about Mike Martz’s arrival in town as the team’s new offensive coordinator, but will he really make much of a difference considering this team was already one of the league’s pass heaviest teams? Yes, he will. Although the team will have a hard time passing more than they did last season, where the passes will be delivered will be the difference. Martz is known for not utlizing the tight end in the pass game (bad news for Greg Olsen), but does put pass-catching RBs to good use (good news for Matt Forte)

QB : Jay Cutler : 358-of-577 , 4006 yards , 27 TD , 22 INT , 41 carries , 164 yards , 1 TD – Cutler will rack up the pass attempts and yards, but had a serious interception issue last season, which, if not corrected, will hold him back. Furthermore, Martz offenses are known for giving up a ton of sacks, which will mean more big plays, but more of a beatdown on Cutler. Think Aaron Rodgers early in 2009.

RB: Matt Forte : 242 carries , 897 yards , 5 TD, 89 targets , 71 receptions , 571 yards, 2 TD – Forte has not run the ball well in his 2 seasons in Chicago, averaging well below 4.0 YPC both seasons (4.1 is league average). He has, however, been a pass-catching machine, which means big things in a Martz-run offense.

WR: Devin Hester : 119 targets , 77 receptions , 1005 yards, 5 TD – It’s too early to really know which receivers will get the most looks next season, but for now, we’ll assume that it will be Hester getting a majority of the looks.

WR: Johnny Knox : 101 targets , 58 receptions , 663 yards , 5 TD – Very inconsistent in 2009, but will be valuable fantasy asset if he locks down the WR2 job.

WR: Devin Aromashodu : 83 targets , 47 receptions , 593 yards , 4 TD – Was Cutler’s favorite target down the stretch last season, but Hester and Knox were out with injuries during most of that span. Regardless, he should be in for an expanded workload.

WR: Earl Bennett : 71 targets, 44 receptions, 575 yards, 4 TD – Seems to be the one people are overlooking, but he was the starter last season and will still be in the mix for looks.

TE: Greg Olsen : 77 targets , 45 receptions , 462 yards, 5 TD – This is lower than his 2009 production, but would be a record season for a TE in a Mike Martz offense. Once we get a better idea of Martz’s gameplan, this could change, but for now, there’s little reason to believe he will be an impact fantasy tight end.