Kevin Kolb will prove he is the real deal with a strong 2010 season.

Considering I’m a probabilities/numbers guy, bold predictions are never easy to come up with. Still, there is a qualitative side to fantasy football and that in itself will always allow me to love/hate guys more than the consensus. That being said, here are a few bold predictions based on my current 2010 projections:

1. Andre Johnson and Wes Welker will finish 2010 as the top scoring PPR wide receivers – Projecting such a finish for Andre Johnson is anything but bold, but Wes Welker at number two should grab your attention. Many are extremely skeptical that Welker can be back in uniform by week 1, but recent reports seem to indicate otherwise. I’m predicting a slow start to the season for him, but he will be back to his old self by week 3-4 and will end up with 120 receptions and 1,300 yards. Considering Welker’s recent ADP, he will still be on the board when you are up in round 4. Don’t pass him up.

2. Devin Hester will lead the Bears in receptions en route to a top 20 fantasy season among WRs – There is a ton of buzz surrounding Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu, but don’t overlook the veteran playmaker Hester. The former Miami Hurricane averaged 4.4 receptions/game last season, which translates to 70 receptions in 16 games. Mike Martz is in town to tune an already pass heavy offense, Jay Cutler will improve his interception rate, and the Cutler-Hester connection now has a season under its belt. Considering Hester will, again, be the WR1 in what should be the league’s pass heaviest offense, he’s looking at statistics in the area of 70 catches, 1,000 yards, and 6 scores.

3. Kevin Kolb will prove to be the real deal – Many consider Kolb to be a backend starting QB in 12 team leagues this year. The bold have him as a borderline top 5 option thanks to the Eagles potent offensive attack, while the naysayers say he is too inexperienced and risky to rely on as a QB1. Although I think a top 5 finish would be pushing the envelope, I will be completely shocked if Kolb plays all 16 games and ends up outside the top 12. We know the Eagles will pass the ball a ton, we know he’s already produced when asked to do so, and we know a few talented, young-but-not-rookie quarterbacks who have been fantasy gold over the last few seasons. In 2008, his first season as the starter, 25 year old and 3 year vet Aaron Rodgers was third in scoring among quarterbacks. In 2006, also his first season as a starter, 25 year old and 2 year vet Philip Rivers ranked 8th among quarterbacks. In 2010, his first season as a full-time starter, 26 year old and 3 year vet Kevin Kolb will prove he is one of the more talented quarterbacks in the league. It will lead him to a top 8 finish among quarterbacks.

4. Superbowl XLV will match the Ravens with the Packers – This one isn’t Fantasy Football related, but these are the two teams I’m currently highest on in each conference. Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers , Ray Rice and Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings and Anquan Boldin. JerMichael Finley and Derrick Mason. Talk about some fantasy firepower in the big game! Who will win? How about Green Bay 38, Baltimore 34. Nothing like a shootout on Superbowl Sunday.

Next up is the Green Bay Packers, who are close to my heart after I correctly tagged Aaron Rodgers as 2009’s top Fantasy quarterback last preseason. I also developed high expectations for Jermichael Finley during the early part of the season and he looks to be a top TE in 2010. The offense didn’t see much of a facelift this offseason with the biggest move coming in the draft via the selection running back James Starks.

Jermichael Finley heads into 2010 as a top 5 Fantasy tight end.

QB: Aaron Rodgers : 337-of-518 , 4177 yards , 28 TD , 9 INT , 56 carries , 282 yards , 3 TD – Rodgers may not repeat as the top scoring QB, but there is little reason to believe he won’t be at least a top 3 QB option. The emergence of Finley should make this offense, and thus Rodgers, even better.

RB: Ryan Grant : 277 carries , 1193 yards , 10 TD , 21 targets , 17 receptions , 129 yards , 1 TD – Grant didn’t have many receptions last season, but was still a top 10 PPR back because of his heavy workload on the ground. Brandon Jackson missed a lot of time with injury and could cut slightly into Grant’s carries. Still, he should put up similar numbers to what we saw in 2009.

RB: Brandon Jackson : 65 carries , 247 yards , 2 TD , 32 targets , 25 receptions, 197 yards, 1 TD – Jackson returns to his third down role in 2010, but needs to play well early on to avoid being passed on the depth chart by rookie James Starks.

WR: Greg Jennings : 123 targets , 72 receptions , 1144 yards , 7 TD – Was a bit of a disappointment last season, but still put up 1,100 yards. I expect his TD rate to improve this season, but it’s worth noting that Finley, not Jennings, will be Rodgers top target in the redzone. A potential decline by Donald Driver this season, however, could lead to an even larger reliance on Jennings.

WR: Donald Driver : 91 targets , 56 receptions , 789 yards , 5 TD – Driver has not shown much of a decline despite his age and should be in line for another healthy dose of passes in 2010. Still, James Jones and, to a lesser extent, Jordy Nelson have been impressive and will be pushing for more looks. A changing of the guard at WR2 could go into play this season.

WR: James Jones : 59 targets , 31 receptions , 433 yards , 3 TD – Won’t make much of an impact as the WR3, but he could be a nice fantasy asset if Driver begins to slow.

TE: Jermichael Finley : 107 targets , 78 receptions , 956 yards , 8 TD – Rodgers was throwing to Finley nearly 10 times a game late last season and that trend will continue in 2010. Finley will be a top 5 tight end as long as he stays on the field / out of trouble.

On to the NFC North we go. First up is the Green Bay Packers, who are close to my heart after I correctly tagged Aaron Rodgers as 2009’s top Fantasy quarterback last preseason. I also developed high expectations for Jermichael Finley during the early part of the season and he looks to be a top TE in 2010.

Jermichael Finley will head into 2010 as a borderline top 5 Fantasy Tight End.

This offense shouldn’t see much of a facelift this offseason, so you shouldn’t expect drastic changes in fantasy production from most of the players.

QB: Aaron Rodgers : 337-of-518 , 4210 yards , 28 TD , 8 INT , 56 carries , 282 yards , 5 TD – Rodgers may not repeat as the top scoring QB, but there is little reason to believe he won’t be at least a top 5 QB option. The emergence of Finley should make this offense, and thus Rodgers, even better.

RB: Ryan Grant : 277 carries , 1193 yards , 10 TD , 21 targets , 18 receptions , 136 yards , 0 TD – Grant didn’t have many receptions last season, but was still a top 10 PPR back because of his heavy workload on the ground. Brandon Jackson missed a lot of time with injury and could cut slightly into Grant’s carries. Still, he should put up similar numbers to what we saw in 2009.

WR: Greg Jennings : 118 targets , 71 receptions , 1128 yards , 6 TD – Was a bit of a disappointment last season, but still put up 1,100 yards. I expect his TD rate to improve next season, but it’s worth noting that Finley, not Jennings, will be Rodgers top target in the redzone.

WR: Donald Driver : 102 targets , 65 receptions , 909 yards , 5 TD – Driver has not shown much of a decline despite his age and should be in line for another healthy dose of passes in 2010.

WR: James Jones : 53 targets , 29 receptions , 405 yards , 3 TD – Won’t make much of an impact as the WR3, but he could be a nice fantasy asset if Driver begins to slow.

TE: Jermichael Finley : 107 targets , 80 receptions , 986 yards , 7 TD – Rodgers was throwing to Finley nearly 10 times a game late last season and that trend will continue in 2010. Finley will be a top 10 tight end and could reach the top 5 if he stays healthy all season.

Runningbacks:

Leonard Weaver – Weaver, a fullback, went for 100 total yards and a score against the Falcons on Sunday, but note that he touched the ball only 7 times. In fact, in the 6 games Brian Westbrook was inactive this season, he’s averaged just under 7 looks a game. 7 yards per touch is nice, but you can’t expect much on fewer than 10 touches.

Advice: Should not be starting anywhere and should only be owned in the deepest of leagues.

Sammy Morris – Morris is healthy and back in the lineup, which doesn’t bode well for the stock of Laurence Maroney. Morris carried it 9 times on Sunday and was targeted twice, racking up 65 total yards.

Advice: He’s not someone you want to be starting right now, but should be on someone’s bench in 12+ team leagues.

Larry Johnson – Some people still seem to be unclear about his role, so I’m going to clarify it for you: He’s a backup running back who is not, and I repeat, not a threat to Cedric Benson (as can be seen in the week 13 boxscore). Johnson is worth a bench spot in case Benson re-injures himself. In that case, Johnson could see 15-20 looks in an offense that loves to run. That said, even if Benson goes down, Bernard Scott will still steal some of the looks.

Advice: As mentioned, he’s worth a bench spot in all formats, but shouldn’t be starting in any league as long as Benson is active.

Runningback Committees:

Jerome Harrison/Chris Jennings – With Jamal Lewis’ season—and possibly career—over, Harrison and Jennings take over the running back duties for the remainder of the season. Most felt that Jennings would handle much of the workload with Harrison apparently in Eric Mangini’s doghouse, but it was Harrison who had 21 looks in week 13 compared to just 7 for Jennings. Harrison was ineffective in the run game (3.5 YPC), but racked up 62 yards on 7 receptions and scored twice. Jennings, meanwhile, averaged over 5 yards per carry on 5 attempts.

Advice: Harrison is worth a look as a flex player in most formats, especially in PPR. Don’t expect to see 10+ targets every week, but he should see his share with the team usually playing from behind. Jennings is only worth a bench spot in deep leagues.

Rock Cartwright / Quinton Ganther / Marcus Mason – Because Clinton Portis is now officially done for the season, the Redskins running back mess is worth looking into if you’re in need of some help at the position. Cartwright is clearly the top dog so far with 35 looks over the last 2 games, including 28 of the team’s 47 carries by runningbacks. That being said, Ganther was more effective on 5 fewer carries against the Saints on Sunday and could see an extended look during the team’s final few games. The same can be said for Marcus Mason, who despite only 6 carries (8 looks) over the last 2 games, could be in line for a few extra “audition” carries.

Advice: Cartwright has racked up 18 and 17 looks, respectively, over the last 2 games and so he is worth consideration at the flex spot in most formats if you need a body. Ganther is not a bad speculative add in deeper leagues and Mason should only be owned in extremely deep leagues.

Justin Fargas / Darren McFadden / Michael Bush – 27 total carries over the last 2 games for Fargas is more than McFadden (15) and Bush (4) combined. Considering that he’s been effective on those carries (128 yards total), one would have to imagine that they’d continue along with him as their RB1 as long as they are competitive.

Advice: Fargas is worth flex consideration in 12 team standard leagues. McFadden should be owned in dynasty leagues, but is worth no more than bench spot in deeper leagues at this point. Bush has no value unless one of the top 2 are injured.

Wide Receivers:

Kenny Britt – 20 total targets over the last 2 games and a receiving touchdown in three straight for the rookie. The Titans won’t continue to pass the ball 43 times a game like they did the last two weeks, but Britt should still see 7-8 targets most weeks.

Advice: Worth consideration in 16 team leagues, but you shouldn’t feel too comfortable quite yet, especially considering that this team will be running the ball more than they have been and the inconsistency of Britt’s looks this season.

Devin Thomas – I touched on Thomas last week in my ‘Things you should know’ feature, as a player who was seeing more looks, but was unlikely to make a huge fantasy impact this season. He sure made me look silly with 7 receptions on 7 targets for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns. I’d call that fantasy relevant. Thomas has be targeted 20 times total over the last 3 games and is seemingly earning the trust of Jason Campbell.

Advice: You shouldn’t feel comfortable with him as your WR3 in standard leagues quite yet, but he’s certainly worth a bench spot. He should certainly be owned in dynasty leagues considering his age and potential.

Sam Aiken – Aiken should be getting some attention after putting up 80+ receiving yards each of the last two games. Although he was looked at a healthy 10 times versus the Saints two weeks ago, you won’t see anything close to that most weeks considering that Wes Welker and Randy Moss see double-digit targets almost every game. On the year, Aiken is averaging only 3 looks a game, which is exactly what he saw in week 13. Fortunately for his owners (there’s not too many of you), his only reception of the three looks was an 81 yard touchdown.

Advice: Worth a speculative bench spot in deeper leagues and is a desperation start candidate in those same leagues just because of the Patriots’ offensive potential.

Brian Robiskie – Finally getting into the action, the rookie and pre-season sleeper favorite caught 4 of his 5 targets for 69 yards on Sunday and is back on the waiver wire map. It would be surprising not to see plenty of balls thrown his way as the season winds down, but he’s still competing with and likely behind Harrison, Jennings, Cribbs, Massaquoi, and Stuckey for looks.

Advice: Only worth a spot in dynasty leagues. If you’re in a very deep redraft league and looking for a deep sleeper for your bench, he should be a candidate.

Tight Ends:

Jermichael Finley is sure to be a hot Waiver Wire add this week, but make sure you put in a claim if you need help at tight end.

Jermichael Finley – Finley is going to be a hot commodity this week after a huge 2 touchdown game on national television Monday night. I’ve been on the Finley bandwagon for quite a while, so you know I think you should put in a claim if you are shaky at tight end. He’s quickly becoming one of Aaron Rodgers’ favorite weapons with 24 targets total over the last 3 games. He’s caught an impressive 17 of those passes for 158 yards and 3 scores. He missed some time with a leg injury earlier this year, but don’t let that scare you away from one of the game’s top young fantasy tight ends.

Advice: Finley will be a borderline top 10 tight end the rest of the way and should be treated accordingly.

Fred Davis – Sticking with the Redskins theme, next on my list is Fred Davis. I’ve talked about him previously, but only now is he officially a starter for the rest of the season after Chris Cooley was finally placed on IR. Davis has been targeted 9 times each of the last 2 games, which is a lot for a tight end. He has 9 catches for 96 yards over those 2 games and scored a touchdown in both. That’s 10.3 and 11.3 fantasy points, respectively, in standard scoring leagues.

Advice: If he’s unowned and you are struggling at tight end, he is a pretty solid option considering the looks coming in. Don’t start him over a top tight end, but if you are bouncing around between John Carlson and Dustin Keller, Davis should be in your lineup going forward.

Evan Moore – Moore burst onto the scene with 11 targets, 6 catches, and 80 yards in his NFL debut Sunday. Robert Royal, Michael Gaines, and Greg Estandia are also tight ends on the roster, but Royal and Gaines are struggling with injuries and Estandia was a healthy inactive in week 13.

Advice: Not worth a look in any but the deepest of leagues. You’d have to imagine he will see more looks after a great debut, but his contributions will be limited in this, a poor, but improving offense.

Kickers:

Garrett Hartley – This one is pretty straightforward. Hartley has replaced John Carney as the kicker of the NFL’s most potent offense.

Advice: A top 5 kicker in all formats as long he remains the starter.

Recommended by ‘The Fifth Down’ blog on the website of the New York Times.

Some player notes from around the NFL:

Quinton Ganther/Marcus Mason – Ganther and Mason appear to be rotating as the spell back in Washington while Rock Cartwright is the feature back. Neither has much value, especially considering Portis should return over the next few weeks.

Devin Thomas – Another Redskin who is seeing an increase in playing time, Thomas has been targeted 17 times over the last 3 games and is quietly taking over as the 2nd most productive WR in Washington. Keep an eye on him, but he is unlikely to be fantasy relevant this season.

Matt Moore – Moore is the new starting QB in Carolina with Delhomme gone to the bench. Considering Moore’s inexperience and the fact that Carolina is the 3rd run-heaviest team in the NFL, you shouldn’t expect him to be relied on much, which means he isn’t even worth a bench spot in most leagues.

Dante Rosario – 7 targets each of the last 2 weeks for the tight end, but he’s still sharing the tight end load with Jeff King and Gary Barnidge. Also consider that the team throws the ball very little and they are making a change at quarterback. He’s not worth your time.

Jermichael Finley – Fellow TE Donald Lee scored the only touchdown by a Packers’TE in week 12, but Finley was targeted more (6-to-4) and is averaging around 7 looks a game when healthy. The Packers offense is on a roll and Finley will be a big part of it down the stretch. Unless you have a top tight end, he’s someone to consider starting.

Kahlil Bell – Bell burst onto the scene when he put up 81 yards on 4 carries 2 weeks ago, but he carried it just once in week 12. His only value right now is as a handcuff to Matt Forte.

Justin Forsett – Forsett is now owned in most leagues, but consider that Julius Jones will be back at some point. It’s hard to say whether or not the team will give Jones his starting job back, but you have to imagine Forsett has earned a bigger share of the workload. Keep an eye on each player’s looks once Jones returns.

Sam Aiken – Aiken was actually the team’s leading receiver in week 12 with 10 targets, 7 catches, and 80 yards, but note that Julian Edelman was inactive and that Wes Welker and Randy Moss are both still on the roster. Aiken is unlikely to approach those numbers again this season, but will continue to have at least some value as the slot receiver in this pass heavy offense.

Lex Hilliard – 13 total looks over the last 2 games isn’t much, but consider that the only thing between him and the starting RB job on the league’s 2nd-run heaviest team is an injury to 32-year-old Ricky Williams.

Considering his situation, Lex Hilliard should be considered for a spot on your bench in most leagues.

Mike Thomas – Will continue to be overshadowed by Mike Sims-Walker and Torry Holt, but consider that he’s caught 83% of passes thrown his way (best in the NFL for WRs with 30+ targets) and is only a rookie. He’s seeing 5-6 looks most weeks and should be considered a sleeper to explode if he sees more action late this season.

Larry Johnson/Bernard Scott – Johnson put up 100 rushing yards in week 12 and Scott has over 200 rushing yards the last 2 weeks, but don’t kid yourself. When Cedric Benson is healthy and returns to action, he will a majority of the carries. At that point, you should expect only 3-6 carries a game for each, which means very little fantasy value.

Chris Jennings – Jerome Harrison was active in 12 after spending a few weeks as a health scratch so that Jennings could have a shot at the RB2 role. This bumped Jennings back to the RB3 role and it’s anyone’s guess what Mangini will do going forward. Regardless, Jennings is not a player you should be rostering.

UPDATE: (Wednesday Dec 2) – It appears that Jamal Lewis will be heading to IR, which means Jennings could now be the starter in Cleveland. Snatch him up before someone else does if you’re in a deep league or desperate for RB help.

Chris Chambers – Chambers is probably owned in your league, but it’s worth noting that he has caught 74% of the 23 balls thrown his direction since joining the Chiefs and has scored on almost 18% of those catches. Although the fact that he was targeted a total of only 9 times over his first 2 games in KC was a concern, Cassel has now thrown his way 14 times total over the last 2 games.

Malcom Floyd – The man who replaced Chambers as a starter in San Diego is not seeing the same success that Chambers is enjoying in Kansas City. Floyd is being targeted only 3-5 times a game and although he did put up 85 yards in week 12, it was on only 3 catches (4 targets). Floyd has potential in this potent offense, but right now he’s not seeing enough looks.

Darren McFadden/Justin Fargas/Michael Bush – The Raiders running back situation might be the hardest unit to dissect in the league. Fargas wasn’t even active early in the year when McFadden and Bush were carrying most of the workload, but now Fargas seems to be the top runner of the group (sounds a lot like 2008-09) having carried it a team-high 20 total times over the last 2 games. McFadden has been the better bet in PPR leagues, however, over the last 2 weeks, racking up 9 looks and 7 catches despite only 12 carries. Bush, meanwhile, has only 7 looks (all carries) over the last 2 weeks.