Why do we all enjoy fantasy football? Because it’s fun! Every dynasty owner wants to be right, make the best line up call or best strategic draft pick. The goal is to dominate your league and prove to everyone else that you have outwitted and outlasted them or is that a reality show, I digress.

Everyone under the sun has a sleeper or a breakout player. Some sites will give you some information and some will give you conjecture. We will give you facts and a lot of them. Everyone knows the fantastic four RBs i.e. Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Ray Rice. Heck everyone knows the sweet seven QBs i.e. Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Phillip Rivers, and Matt Schaub. We all even know the number #1 WR in fantasy is Andre Johnson. But what about these popular sleepers?

Despite missing all of 2009, Anthony Gonzalez is the best value pick among Colts receivers this season.

Which RB sleeper do you take the chance on Felix Jones, Marion Barber, or Tashard Choice? Jerry Jones and Wade Phillips seem to be serving up a big helping of misinformation on these guys. Time will tell and maybe in another article I will discuss them, but hold off on drafting any of them early.

Right now let’s switch gears and look at the WR position. San Diego WR Malcolm Floyd seems one of the hot topics these days in dynasty and all around fantasy circles considering the Vincent Jackson drama with regards to Vincent’s contract and suspension status. I have chosen to use some interesting stats that you may not have taken into account when looking at a wide receiver. When looking at a WR, one needs to consider the percentage of passes caught that were thrown to them, yards per reception, average yards after catch per reception, and missed/broken tackles (how many times a player got away).

In 2008, Malcolm Floyd was used as a 3^rd WR mostly by the Chargers and had a 75% catch rate, 17.2 yd/rec, 2.4 yac/rec, and 1 missed/broken tackle. In 2009, Floyd was used for the first six games or so as a #3 WR and then after Chris Chambers was traded to Kansas City, Floyd became the #2 WR in San Diego. Malcolm had a 60.8% catch rate, the same 17.2 yd/rec, improved his yac/rec to 3.0, and increased to his 5 missed/broken tackles. That tell us Floyd doesn’t fair so well against better coverage, but he has still has the ability to stretch the field. Floyd has also gotten a little bit better in his yards after the catch, and making his would be tacklers miss. Unfortunately what this shows us fantasy peeps is that Floyd had trouble hanging as a #2 WR catching only 60.8% of the passes thrown to him with a #2 CB on him. He might fair even worse against a true #1 CB. If you have him, trade Floyd at his high value and if you are thinking about acquiring him don’t give up too much or attempt to draft him a bit later.

Our second comparison is a bit juicier as it is about one of the top WR cores in the NFL, your Super Bowl runner-ups the Indianapolis Colts. The debate right now is which WRs will emerge as the #2 and #3. Anthony Gonzalez is considered on the outside looking in versus Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. After reviewing the same set of statistics that I based my observations on Malcolm Floyd, I think that Gonzalez might have the a significant edge on Garcon and a slight edge on Collie.

First lets look at the 2009 of the top three Colts wide receivers. Reggie Wayne as the #1 WR had a catch rate of 68.5%, 12.6 yd/rec, 4.4 yac/rec, and 7 missed/broken tackles. Wayne ran every route in the Indianapolis arsenal. Pierre Garcon as the #2 WR had a catch rate of only 53.4%, 16.3 yd/rec, 6.2 yac/rec, and 4 missed/broken tackles. Garcon’s numbers show a huge explosiveness after the catch, but difficulty making the catch. This may be due to the length of passes that were attempted to him, but Pierre is hardly a sure thing. He did improve over the playoffs, but may need more seasoning to jump to the NFL from Mount Union (a small Ohio football school). Austin Collie, on the other hand, as the #3 WR had a catch rate of 70.6%, 11.3 yd/rec, 4.2 yac/rec, and 5 missed/broken tackles. Collie was very consistent with his targets, but not as explosive.

Anthony Gonzalez played the #3 WR role in 2007 and 2008. Gonzalez excelled at this role enough to be considered to be the heir apparent for the #2 WR job in 2009. In 2007, he had a catch rate of 71.4%, 17.0 yd/rec, 5.1 yac/rec, and 4 missed/broken tackles. He had better numbers in comparison to Austin Collie playing the #3 WR role in 2007. In 2008, Gonzalez still playing the #3 WR role had a catch rate of 73.1%, 11.9 yd/rec, 3.7 yac/rec, and 3 missed/broken tackles. Clearly Anthony Gonzalez stretched the field less as in 2008, but was very efficient catching the ball from Peyton Manning in comparison to Garcon. Gonzalez can fit into any of the WR roles that the Colts have to offer. He is going much later in fantasy drafts right now than Wayne, Garcon, or Collie. The smart play in fact may be dealing Reggie Wayne as he is the oldest of the WRs and is complaining about his contact. As the numbers have shown, Gonzalez can play. Don’t discount any of the young Colts receivers and try to find value when you can get it. This year that will be Anthony Gonzalez.

A quick recap: Don’t always believe the sleeper hype. There are other stats to look at when judging WRs. Malcolm Floyd is a decent #3 fantasy WR, but don’t get your hopes up with him possibly being the #2 option in San Diego behind Antonio Gates. Anthony Gonzalez has #2 or #3 WR ability in the Indy passing game, so get him cheap. Think about trading Reggie Wayne as all three young Colt WRs are improving and impressing. Kick some dynasty tail!

The Colts enter the 2010 season with almost the exact same personnel at each fantasy-relevant offensive position. No one in fantasy circles is crying about the departure of Jim Sorgi and Chad Simpson, each of who only saw limited action over the last few seasons. The only notable addition to the offense is not really an addition at all. Anthony Gonzalez missed the entire 2009 season after an injury early in the team’s week 1 game, but has recovered and is now competing for playing time with Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie.

QB: Peyton Manning : 386-of-568, 4558 yards, 33 TD, 15 INT, 22 carries, 22 yards, 1 TD – Considering that his entire offense and more will be returning this season, Manning should have little trouble replicating his 2009 campaign. A top 5 season is in order for arguably the league’s best player.

Dallas Clark (pictured) will be a favorite target of Peyton Manning again in 2010 and is in line to repeat as fantasy's top TE

RB: Joseph Addai : 204 carries, 796 yards, 8 TD, 59 targets, 46 receptions, 343 yards, 2 TD – Addai has not been overly effective running the ball during his Colts career, but he’s been a fantasy asset thanks to his involvement in the Colts outstanding offensive attack and his ability to catch passes. He should be the main man again in 2010, but he is a free agent after the 2010 season and Donald Brown is waiting in the wings. Expect Brown to see more work this year and for Addai to hang around the top 15 among running backs.

RB: Donald Brown : 115 carries, 448 yards, 3 TD, 23 targets, 18 receptions, 180 yards, 1 TD – I fully expect Brown to be more involved this season. He missed several games in 2009 due to injury, but note that he was only a few carries behind Addai early on, which was prior to his first in-season injury. He is the projected 2011 starter at the position and is in line for some much needed experience in 2010.

WR: Reggie Wayne : 135 targets, 89 receptions, 1173 yards, 9 TD – Wayne has been one of the most consistently elite fantasy producers of the last decade and there is little reason to believe that will change in 2010. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie came on strong last season, but Wayne is still the team’s top target. Expect another top 5 season.

WR: Pierre Garcon : 105 targets, 55 receptions, 850 yards, 5 TD – Garcon proved to be a more than capable replacement for Marvin Harrison in 2009 and will return to the WR2 role in 2010. He may lose a few reps to Gonzalez, but the more likely scenario is that he will compete with Collie in the slot. Garcon figures to be a mid-level WR3 option.

WR: Austin Collie : 88 targets, 59 receptions, 677 yards, 5 TD – Collie was outstanding as Manning’s slot receiver in his rookie campaign, but Gonzalez is healthy and ready to return to the starting lineup. Because Gonzalez is, as mentioned, a slot receiver, Collie will likely lose a few reps a game, hurting his fantasy value. Still, Collie will be on the field with Manning enough to deserve a bench spot in most formats and could crack the top 40.

WR: Anthony Gonzalez : 29 targets, 20 receptions, 239 yards, 2 TD – Coming off an injury that derailed his entire 2009 season and considering how effective the Colts offense was a year ago, it’s hard for me to imagine Gonzalez seeing a ton of work this year. Collie vs. Gonzalez is a camp battle worth keeping an eye on, but right now it looks like Gonzalez will be nothing more than a guy who steals fantasy points from Austin Collie owners.

TE: Dallas Clark : 123 targets, 91 receptions, 1001 yards, 9 TD – Fantasy’s top tight end in 2009 will be Manning’s second favorite target again in 2010. The tight end position is as deep as ever in fantasy, but it’s hard to go wrong with a tight end who will see an average of 8 targets a week and who could score 10 touchdowns. He’s your top fantasy tight end again in 2010.

Indianapolis Colts

Quote Head Coach Jim Caldwell:
“(On Anthony Gonzalez)He looks good. I’ve had the chance to watch him here the last few weeks actually. He’s moving well, and certainly catching the ball well, but also I just think he looks like he’s well equipped to start right where he left off. I think he’s done very well at this point.”

Returning from an injury that cost him the entire 2009 season, Anthony Gonzalez will compete with Austin Collie for time in the slot.

The Spin:
Reports claim that Gonzalez has the same speed that he had last year and looks like he is 100%. Gonzalez almost exclusively played the slot in 2008. I think we will see that again. I expect Garcon to be lining up on the outside and Gonzalez in the slot. It appears the odd man out in this situation could be Austin Collie if Gonzalez performs up to expectations.

Other news:
Pre-OTA reports show Donald Brown getting all of the first team work. However, Addai was held out of practice. To me, really what the starting gig comes down to is who can protect Peyton Manning better. If Brown shows he can be a solid blocker for Peyton, Brown is the back that I want. The more work he gets with Manning, the more likely it becomes that Brown could be a good blocker and get more playing time.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Quote Head Coach Jack Del Rio:
“Well, I think the one guy we have that is clearly the best guy in the group is Mike Sims-Walker. He had a nice mini-camp this weekend. I think after that you’ve got Mike Thomas and Jarett Dillard; they would be two and three in my book from last year, and those guys are now here working every day with David and getting the timing down.”

The Spin:
Jack’s comment at first glance seems to lay out the depth chart pretty cut and dry for us. But as all good coach speak implies, nothing is ever set in stone. Jack informs us of the depth chart from last year and tells us that the same guys are working with David Garrard. Troy Williamson was on IR for much of the year so it is easy for Jack to not mention him. Right now Williamson is on the outside looking in, but I do think Williamson has a chance at the starting gig opposite Mike Sims-Walker. Team reports claim that Dillard has really impressed to date. Mike Thomas is currently penciled in as the WR2.

Quote General Manager Gene Smith:
“(On Deji Karim)He can mismatch a linebacker, a safety, a third corner,” said. “He’s smart. He graduated from college. You can do things with a guy like that.”

The Spin:
6th round rookie RB/KR Deji Karim is a name to get familiar with. He has impressed and from all indications it appears he has the lead for the job as the kick returner.  Karim has also voiced that the Jaguars have told him they do intend him to be a change of pace back at some point. So far in camp he has not had too much work as a RB but he has impressed when given the chance. Rashad Jennings meanwhile looks as if he has added weight and strength. I think Karim could actually help Jennings value in 2010. Karim being the return specialists allows Jennings to focus solely on the offense. I think that Jennings will end up getting more carries than last year. Look for Jones-Drew to be rested more in an effort to keep him fresh.

Houston Texans

Quote Head Coach Gary Kubiak:
“(Arian Foster) went from first year to second year a big jump, just watching him practice,” said Kubiak. “Foster is taking advantage of rookie Ben Tate’s absence. He showed enough late last season to believe he has at least a puncher’s chance of starting in Week 1.”
“(Tate) is way behind everybody right now, but we’ve got to be smart and get him well before he competes.”

The Spin:
Arian Foster’s stock does get a boost with him getting work over Steve Slaton, but I would not entrench Foster as a stud (or starter) just yet. Ben Tate has been out with a hamstring injury. Ryan Moats is out with family issues. Slaton is working with the second team and has lost 11 pounds from last year. Slaton is looking to reclaim some of the quickness he had in 2008. This could be a situation in which Slaton is gearing up for more of a 3rd down role. If Tate proves that he deserves carries this year as he is expected too, it could leave Arian Foster with limited carries in a running back by committee situation. Kubiak claims that Houston really needs Slaton to have an impact this year. In a pass happy offense like Houston, the 3rd down back might have the best value. Slaton still could end up being the best back to have this year even with his surgery.

Other news:
6th round rookie return specialist Trindon Holiday has impressed the staff. Holiday posted the 2nd best overall 40 time in the 2010 combine. Return leaguers should obviously take note and Jacoby Jones owners take note as well. If Holiday takes over the punt and kick returning duties, we could likely see the coaching staff get Jones more involved in the offensive game plan. This bodes well for Jones’ value as a receiver.

Tenneessee Titans

Quote Head Coach Jeff Fisher:
“Because of the fact Bo is not here and Alge will not be returning, right now Craig [Stevens] and Jared are our tight ends. Cookie [Jared Cook] can get open as we all know. He has a much better feel for the line of scrimmage now.”

The Spin:
This news was before Bo Scaife returned to camp so we can’t take too much from it. However, it is good to see that Jeff Fisher appreciates Jared Cook’s receiving ability. This is a situation to watch, but I would not put to much stock in this unless there is an injury to Scaife. Fisher loves to go with veteran guys and likes to run the offense with multiple tight ends. Add the fact that Titans are a run first team and I just don’t see Jared as having much of a chance of a breakout in 2010.

Quote Head Coach Jeff Fisher:
“Clearly Justin [Gage] and Nate [Washington] with the experience can make the plays. They have shown in and are reliable. Then the rest of the group is bunched up there. We will see what happens.”

The Spin:
As expected, Gage and Washington are the starters right now. This does not bode well for Damian Williams. Considering Fisher’s likeness for veterans, I just don’t see how Damian will get on the field very much in 2010 without injuries ahead of him.

Other News:

Stafon Johnson has been getting most of the recent work with the first team and the staff has been impressed with his quickness. It is always good to hear the staff is impressed with someone, but don’t buy too much into this. Chris Johnson, Javon Ringer and LeGarrette Blount were all out for various reasons. At best, Johnson is 3rd on this depth chart and still may not make the team.

Final Score:

New Orleans Saints 24
Indianapolis Colts 27

Statistics:

New Orleans Saints (NFC):

Quarterbacks:

Drew Brees: 27-of-38 , 310 yards , 2 TD , 1 INT

Runningbacks:

Pierre Thomas: 14 carries, 63 yards, 2 receptions, 14 yards, 1 TD
Reggie Bush: 7 carries, 35 yards, 4 receptions, 28 yards
Mike Bell: 1 carry, 4 yards
Lynell Hamilton: 1 carry, 2 yards

Wide Receivers:

Marques Colston: 5 receptions, 83 yards, 1 TD
Devery Henderson: 4 receptions, 63 yards, 1 TD
Robert Meachem: 3 receptions, 46 yards
Lance Moore: 1 reception, 10 yards

Tight Ends:

Jeremy Shockey: 3 receptions, 36 yards
David Thomas: 3 receptions, 30 yards

Kicker:

Garrett Hartley: FG, 3 XP

–

Indianapolis Colts (AFC):

Quarterbacks:

Peyton Manning: 26-of-38 , 303 yards , 2 TD , 1 INT

Runningbacks:

Joseph Addai: 14 carries, 59 yards, 3 receptions, 20 yards, 1 TD
Donald Brown: 5 carries, 20 yards, 1 reception, 5 yards
Michael Hart: 2 carries, 5 yards

Wide Receivers:

Reggie Wayne: 6 receptions, 78 yards
Pierre Garcon: 5 receptions, 75 yards
Austin Collie: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD

Tight Ends:

Dallas Clark: 6 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD

Kicker:

Matt Stover: 3 FG, 2 XP

–

Breakdown:

As always, my projections are based strongly on statistical trends. I study league trends from the last 10 years and focus on what each player has done throughout his career with a focus on the 2009 campaign in order to come up with projections. To give you a better idea of how I came up with the Superbowl predictions, I’m including a quick summary this week to show where my run, pass, and total play figures were derived from.

Saints:

In losses and games decided by fewer than 11 points this season, the New Orleans Saints averaged 62 pass+run plays per game, 60% of which were passes. On the flip side, in games they won by 11 or more points, they passed only 49% of the time and averaged 64 plays. For my projections, I focused on the first scenario, considering that that it is unlikely that the Saints blowout the Colts. This left me with a pass/rush breakdown of 38/24 for the Saints in the Superbowl. Drew Brees generally completes around 70% of his passes, which left me with a 27-of-38 passing day for the Saints quarterback.

Colts:

In losses and games decided by fewer than 11 points this season, the Indianapolis Colts averaged 59 plays a game and passed the ball 64% of the time. In wins by 11+ points, they averaged 65 plays and passed 61% of the time. The difference in playcalling is not very significant, but I leaned towards the “close game” figures for my projection. This left me with 38 pass attempts and 22 rush attempts for the Colts in the Superbowl. Peyton Manning completes right around 69% of his passes, which leaves us with a projected passing day of 26-of-38.

Final Score:

I focused on what kind of performance each team put forth in games decided by fewer than 11 points this season to determine my final score projection. The numbers came out very close, with both team’s projected points in the region of 24-27. So why did I give Indianapolis the nod? The best player in the NFL, Peyton Manning, significantly improves the Colts superbowl odds and should make enough of a difference to get this team a world championship.