The Vikings made only minor changes on offense this off-season, but that could change if Brett Favre eventually decides to retire for good. At this point, however, it appears he will be back in 2010. Chester Taylor has moved on to Chicago, but the team drafted Toby Gerhart and signed Ryan Moats to help replace him.

Percy Harvin will approach 1,000 receiving yards in 2010.

QB: Brett Favre : 333-of-497 , 3860 yards , 28 TD , 10 INT – I don’t suspect Favre can improve on his incredible 2009 campaign, but there is little reason to believe he will collapse completely. He’ll regress slightly, but will still be a valuable fantasy asset.

RB: Adrian Peterson : 316 carries , 1420 yards , 14 TD , 72 targets , 53 receptions,  474 yards , 2 TD – A top 2 pick, Peterson will approach 20 total TDs and has even more fantasy value in PPR leagues considering the team failed to add a pass-catching replacement for Chester Taylor. This will lead to more targets for Peterson on 3rd down.

RB: Toby Gerhart : 85 carries , 254 yards , 3 TD , 10 targets , 6 receptions,  38 yards – Gerhart was drafted to help replace Taylor, but is more of a downfield runner than a 3rd down whiz like his predecessor. Gerhart will spell Peterson in short yardage and goal line situations on occassion, but is only worth a look as a late handcuff to Peterson.

WR: Sidney Rice : 118 targets, 77 receptions, 1153 yards, 8 TD – Rice had very little impact in his first two seasons, but broke loose with Favre under center in 2009. Assuming Favre returns, it should be another outstanding fantasy season. If Favre retires, he’s a risky pick.

WR: Percy Harvin : 102 targets, 70 receptions, 910 yards, 6 TD, 19 carries, 151 yards – Harvin will be relied on more in his second season and should end up with a similar number of targets to what Rice will see. 2010 will be a breakout season for the second-year receiver.

WR: Bernard Berrian : 77 targets , 42 receptions, 550 yards, 4 TD – Berrian had a huge 2008 season before taking a backseat to Rice and, to a lesser degree, Harvin in 2009. With Harvin likely to take on a larger role in 2010, Berrian will take another step back.

TE: Visanthe Shiancoe : 72 targets, 52 receptions, 571 yards, 7 TD – Shiancoe returns as Favre’s favorite redzone target. He won’t see the targets most top TEs see, but he will maintain his value as long as he’s scoring. He’s a borderline TE1 in most formats, but bump him up a little bit in TD-heavy leagues.

The Vikings are one of the toughest to project at this point considering the potential changes at Quarterback and Runningback. Brett Favre could retire (again) and Chester Taylor appears to be on his way out. Considering Taylor was the team’s third down back and a valuable piece of the offense, knowing who will replace him is relevant.

Percy Harvin should approach 1,000 receiving yards in 2010.

For the time being, we will assume Favre returns and that the player who replaces Taylor will take on the same role.

QB: Brett Favre : 333-of-497 , 3827 yards , 28 TD , 10 INT – I don’t suspect Favre can improve on his incredible 2009 campaign, but there is little reason to believe he will collapse completely. He’ll regress slightly, but will still be valuable.

RB: Adrian Peterson : 325 carries , 1463 yards , 17 TD , 51 targets , 37 receptions,  336 yards , 1 TD – A top 5 pick, Peterson will approach 20 total TDs once again this season. Burning question: Could AP play more on 3rd down if the team can’t find a capable replacement for Taylor? 10-15 more receptions would add PPR value.

WR: Sidney Rice : 118 targets, 79 receptions, 1223 yards, 9 TD – Rice had very little impact in his first two seasons, but broke loose with Favre under center in 2009. Assuming Favre returns, it should be another outstanding fantasy season, If Favre retires, he’s a risky pick.

WR: Percy Harvin : 108 targets, 72 receptions, 936 yards, 6 TD, 14 carries, 127 yards – Harvin will be relied on more in his second season and should end up with a similar number of targets to what Rice will see.

WR: Bernard Berrian : 77 targets , 44 receptions, 525 yards, 4 TD – Berrian had a huge 2008 season before taking a backseat to Rice and, to a lesser degree, Harvin in 2009. With Harvin likely to take on a larger role in 2010, Berrian will take another step back.

TE: Visanthe Shiancoe : 72 targets, 51 receptions, 534 yards, 7 TD – Shiancoe returns as Favre’s favorite redzone target. He won’t see the targets most top TEs see, but he will maintain his value as long as he’s scoring.

(2) Minnesota Vikings 27
@
(1) New Orleans Saints 28

MIN –

QB:
Brett Favre – 23-of-35 , 280 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

RB:
Adrian Peterson – 20 carries, 95 yards, 2 receptions, 20 yards, TD
Chester Taylor – 5 carries, 18 yards, 2 receptions, 15 yards

WR:
Sidney Rice – 6 receptions, 95 yards, TD
Percy Harvin – 4 receptions, 52 yards, 2 carries, 14 yards
Bernard Berrian – 3 receptions, 35 yards

TE:
Visanthe Shiancoe – 4 receptions, 40 yards, TD

K:
Ryan Longwell – 2 FG , 3 XP

NO –

QB:
Drew Brees – 26-of-37 , 307 yards , 3 TD

RB:
Pierre Thomas – 12 carries , 62 yards, 3 receptions, 20 yards, TD
Reggie Bush – 4 carries, 18 yards, 4 receptions, 28 yards, TD
Mike Bell – 3 carries, 10 yards

WR:
Marques Colston – 6 receptions, 90 yards, TD
Robert Meachem – 3 receptions, 45 yards, TD
Devery Henderson – 3 receptions, 48 yards
Lance Moore – 1 reception, 11 yards

TE:
Jeremy Shockey – 4 receptions, 48 yards

K:
Garrett Hartley – 4 XP

—

(5) New York Jets 17
@
(1) Indianapolis Colts 24

NYJ –

QB:
Mark Sanchez – 16-of-27 , 191 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

RB:
Shonn Greene – 20 carries, 105 yards, TD
Thomas Jones – 12 carries, 48 yards

WR:
Jericho Cotchery – 6 receptions, 80 yards
Braylon Edwards – 3 receptions, 42 yards, TD

TE:
Dustin Keller – 4 receptions, 44 yards

K:
Jay Feely – FG, 2 XP

IND-

QB:
Peyton Manning – 26-of-38 , 285 yards , 2 TD , INT

RB:
Joe Addai – 13 carries, 46 yards, 3 receptions, 20 yards, TD
Donald Brown – 5 carries, 18 yards, 2 receptions, 10 yards
Mike Hart – 2 carries, 5 yards

WR:
Reggie Wayne – 6 receptions, 72 yards
Pierre Garcon – 4 receptions, 60 yards
Austin Collie – 4 receptions, 46 yards, TD

TE:
Dallas Clark – 6 receptions, 70 yards, TD

K:
Matt Stover – FG, 3 XP

This is the point in the fantasy season where owning a great player on an NFL team with one of the league’s best records gets tricky. The “will he or won’t he rest” debate has been on for a week now and it’s going to continue all the way up to week 17.

Taking that into consideration, I threw some notes together on six teams who are or could be in a position to rest players over the next 2 weeks. I also add some fantasy advice to help you make decisions if you happen to own any of the players expected to rest. Note that I’m not guaranteeing these players will rest and I’m not advising you sit them unless it is reported that they will sit out.

Colts – Clinched home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

Fantasy Studs: Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne

Available Replacements: Curtis Painter, Mike Hart, Gijon Robinson, Hank Baskett

It’s possible that the Colts could go all out for the 16-0 record, but there is always the chance that the fantasy studs in question could take a seat and rest up for the playoffs.

If Manning were to take a seat, Curtis Painter would step in. The rookie has little experience and would not be relied on to make big plays. You shouldn’t bother with him. If Addai were to sit, it is unlikely that rookie Donald Brown would play considering his recent injury issues. Mike Hart has been spelling Addai for weeks and would likely get significant work. He is worth consideration as a Flex play if he were to be announced the starter for any of the final 2 games. If Clark sits, any of Gijon Robinson, Jacob Tamme, or Tom Santi could see most of the targets, but Robinson is the most likely bet. Considering how Indy uses the tight end, he is a tempting play if you’re a Clark owner. Replacing Reggie Wayne is trickier because Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon are likely owned in your league. Hank Baskett (and Anthony Gonzalez if he is healthy) will see extra reps if Wayne sits.

Patriots – A win away from clinching the division, but still tied with the Bengals for the 3-seed. We could see players rested once the division is clinched, but it isn’t likely until at least week 17.

Fantasy Studs: Tom Brady, Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss, Wes Welker

Available Replacements: Brian Hoyer, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Sam Aiken, Julian Edelman

If Brady were to take a seat, backup Hoyer would take control. He has very limited experience and is not someone you want to be relying on. The Patriots backfield is tricky because it’s already a three-headed attack with Maroney, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk (four if you include Fred Taylor, who should be back soon). Each of those players has plenty of experience and/or injury concerns. Green-Ellis handled the load for this team late in the 2008 season and could be called on again for some work later this year. That said, he’s not worth starting in fantasy leagues because the other players mentioned would likely still be involved in some nature. If Moss and Welker are sent to the bench, Sam Aiken and Julian Edelman would move up to the WR1 and 2 roles. Aiken has proven to be a big play WR, while Edelman filled in nicely for Welker when he missed time earlier this season.

Chargers – The Chargers are 11-3 and no other team in the AFC is better than 9-5 or worse than 14-0. That means they have plenty of separation from the one team they are chasing and the several teams chasing them. This is likely to result in rest for key players in week 17 and possibly in week 16.

Fantasy Studs: Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson

Available Replacements: Billy Volek, Michael Bennett, Brandon Manumaleuna, Legedu Naanee

If Rivers were to sit, Volek is a player worth considering if you don’t have a decent backup. Tomlinson is very likely to rest and because Sproles could sit as well, Bennett should step in and see some reps. Rest for Gates would mean more work for Manumaleuna and Kris Wilson. Neither are likely to be better plays than your backup or what is on your waiver wire. If Jackson rests, Floyd would likely move up to the WR1 slot to get some experience. Naanee, Kassim Osgood, and Buster Davis would all see work as well.

Saints – One more win clinches homefield throughout the playoffs and they no longer have to try for the 16-0 record, which likely means rest for starters over the next 2 games.

Fantasy Studs: Drew Brees, Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush/Mike Bell, Jeremy Shockey, Marques Colston

Available replacements: Mark Brunell, Lynell Hamilton, David Thomas, Lance Moore

When Brees takes some time off, it will be the veteran Mark Brunell who steps in. He is at least slightly appealing considering the finally tuned offensive machine he’d be running, but the team would more than likely run the ball as much as possible. In deeper leagues, you could consider him if you had Brees, but there are likely better options out there. If the Saints decide to rest their three-headed RB monster, Lynell Hamilton would see a ton of work. He is very appealing in most formats. If he gets the start, feel free to deploy him as your RB2. Shockey is already out with an injury and David Thomas filled in nicely in week 15. He’s a fine replacement if you need TE help down the stretch. If Colston takes some time off, Lance Moore would see an increase in workload. Robert Meachem is starting for a lot of people right now and playing a lot for New Orleans, but I’d imagine that Colston and Devery Henderson would get a break before he does. Someone has to play after all.

Vikings – A Vikings win at Chicago this week coupled with an Eagles loss at home to Denver clinches the Vikings a first round bye, which means week 17 rest for most players against the Giants.

Fantasy Studs: Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, Visanthe Shiancoe, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian

Available Replacements: Tarvaris Jackson, Chester Taylor, Jim Kleinsasser, Greg Lewis, Darius Reynaud, Jaymar Johnson
Tarvaris Jackson / Chester Taylor

Favre might be the most likely player in this article to see significant rest over the team’s final two games. If so, Jackson is a player worth considering in deeper leagues. He’s played well in minimal action this season. If Peterson were to get some rest, it would likely be Chester Taylor who would see extra work. Albert Young would get reps as well. I wouldn’t recommend Kleinsasser or Jeff Dugan if Shiancoe sits, but there is definitely touchdown potential there. If the team’s top 3 receivers get some rest, Lewis and the inexperienced Johnson and Reynaud would see work. The rookie Harvin could see extended work, but it is doubtful considering his recent injury woes.

Cardinals – Arizona has already clinched the NFC West and is currently the fourth seed, but still has an outside chance at a first round bye. Depending on how things go in week 16, we could see players rested in week 17.

Fantasy Studs: Kurt Warner, Beanie Wells, Tim Hightower, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin

Available Replacements: Matt Leinart, LaRod Stephens-Howling, Jason Wright, Early Doucet, Jerheme Urban

Unless Arizona somehow manages to get some breaks and has a legit shot at a first round bye, I’d be very surprised if Matt Leinart does not see some work over the next two weeks. He has some nice upside if you’re looking for a sleeper at QB. Wells has an injury plagued resume, so don’t be shocked if he gets some rest. Hightower could get a breather as well with the capable Stephens-Howling and Wright available to pick up the slack. If Fitzgerald and the oft-injured Boldin sit, Steve Breaston would likely see a few more looks. Doucet and Urban would also see an extended workload.

Running Backs –

Maurice Morris – I’m fairly certain that I was the only one talking this cat up all week and it paid off with a huge effort on Sunday. I speculated that Morris could touch the ball close to 20 times and he responded with 17 carries for 126 yards and a rushing touchdown along with 6 looks, 5 receptions, and 35 receiving yards. That’s a solid 20+ point effort in most formats.

Advice: I see no reason why anything would change in weeks 16 and 17. Morris should continue to approach 20 touches each week unless the team decides to give Aaron Brown a chance to show what he do. I can’t guarantee Morris will go over the century mark again, but he’s a solid RB2 play in 12 team leagues.

Jerome Harrison – Not many people had Harrison in their lineup this week and rightfully so. There was no telling if Harrison would see most of the looks, or if it would be Chris Jennings, who saw 20 carries in week 14, compared to just 7 for Harrison. Still, even has the backup, Harrison should’ve been considered a very deep sleeper up against the porous Chiefs. He showed up big time with 34 carries, 286 yards, and 3 touchdowns in what is the biggest fantasy performance by a running back this season. This is not Harrison’s first big game of the season. Back in week 4 he went for 152 yards on 34 touches, but the next week he touched the ball just 8 times with Jamal Lewis back in the fold. Lewis is gone now, but Jennings is still in the mix in Cleveland.

Advice: You almost have to consider Harrison in your flex spot for week 16, but you shouldn’t feel comfortable about it and you won’t hear me recommending it. The Browns run offense has been anything but effective for a majority of the season and the split in carries has been off the charts inconsistent. He has upside, but don’t be shocked if he ends up with 28 total yards on 9 touches.

Michael Bush – An injury to Justin Fargas allowed Michael Bush to rush for 133 yards and a score on 18 carries against Denver on Sunday. Prior to that game, Bush had carried the ball only 8 times since week 11. Fargas’ injury seems to be minor and if he is back in the fold next week, Bush cannot be relied on for double-digit looks once again. Although you’d expect him to see more looks after such a strong effort, it’s still a three-headed monster in Oakland.

Advice: Unless Fargas is out or Coach Cable says otherwise, Bush is third in line for carries and should not be considered in any format. If Fargas is out or Bush is named the RB2, those of you in very deep leagues who are desperate for help at your flex spot can consider his services.

Jason Snelling – Michael Turner made his return in week 15, which led to the masses dropping Snelling. Turner lasted only 1 carry before sitting out the rest of the game and it’s unknown whether he will suit up for the rest of the season, especially considering that Atlanta has been eliminated from the playoffs. Snelling ended up with only 64 yards, but did have an intriguing 21 looks, which was 10 more than seen by Jerious Norwood.

Advice: Snelling has done an okay job filling in for Turner when he’s missed time and that, coupled with the fact that he could start the team’s final 2 games, means he’s worth consideration as a flex play going forward. That said, if Turner plays, Snelling should not be in your lineup.

Derrick Ward – Whenever I’ve had an empty roster spot this season, Ward has been a player I’ve consistently turned to. Cadillac Williams has stayed relatively healthy so it hasn’t quite paid off as I’d hoped, but consider that in week 15, Ward carried the ball 19 times compared to 12 for Williams. Williams did, however, rack up 88 total yards on 13 touches, which was more efficient than the 73 yards on 20 touches for Ward. Neither has been overly impressive this season, but it’s worth keeping an eye on the timeshare.

Advice: You can’t rely on 20 touches for Ward unless news breaks that he is the new starter. If you have a roster spot to fill, he’s a good speculative pick for your bench, but nothing more right now.

Wide Receivers –

Lance Moore – Moore was back in the fold in week 15 and took advantage by scoring a touchdown despite only 2 looks. Despite the score, two looks should concern you if you’re considering using him in week 16 for several reasons. (a) It’s two looks. That’s not a lot (b) The Saints threw the ball 45 times, which is almost a dozen more pass attempts than they average a game this season and (c) The percentage of passes going to his teammates was about the same as in recent weeks. I’d mention that Jeremy Shockey was out as another reason to be skeptical of Moore, but David Thomas filled in with a whopping 10 targets, which is more than even Shockey is accustomed to.

Advice: Moore will always have decent potential because of the outstanding offense he is a part of, but he’s going to have trouble finding playing time with all the stars around him. At this point, he’s only worth a desperate play in a deep league.

Malcom Floyd – Floyd didn’t exactly light it up after Chris Chambers was cut loose, but he’s now been targeted a total of 16 times over the last 2 games. That is a healthy number for a player not being used in most leagues, but part of the reason for that is the fact that he’s caught only 7 of those 16 balls.

Advice: Any player seeing 8 targets a game in an above average offense is worth keeping an eye on. Floyd isn’t the safest play, but he has a ton of upside and is worth consideration in WR-deep leagues.

Josh Morgan has now been targeted at least 8 times in 3 of the 49ers last 4 games.

Josh Morgan – One of the most popular sleepers heading into this season, Morgan has been a disappointment for fantasy owners who reached on him in their draft. He’s quietly been picking it up over the last few weeks, as he’s now been targeted 8 times in 3 of the 49ers last 4 games. His numbers from the last four games (which includes a 3-catch, 14-yard week 14 effort) total to 29 targets, 22 receptions, 174 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Morgan is the third option in San Francisco with Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis keeping Alex Smith busy, but he’s a talented receiver yet to break out who is now seeing almost double-digits in looks every game.

Advice: Definitely worth considering in deeper leagues and someone you should definitely snag for your bench if you’re in any type of dynasty league. The Gore-Crabtree-Morgan-V Davis offense has tons of potential.

Tight Ends –

Bo Scaife – Although Scaife is anything but a gamebreaker, he’s been extremely consistent over the last 6 games and is worth a mention. In those six games, he’s been targeted 42 times, has 25 receptions, 261 yards, and 1 score. He was targeted 10 times on one occasion and has caught 5 balls three times. His high for yardage is 68. What does that all mean? It means he’s a safe play for close to 8 points in PPR formats and considering all the targets, it’s only a matter of time before he gets into the endzone again.

Advice: Again, he doesn’t have a ton of breakout potential, but he’s safe for 4 catches, 50 yards. If you’re desperate for tight end help and looking around on the Waiver Wire, he’s worth a look.

Quick Hits and Follow Ups –

Arian Foster / Ryan Moats / Chris Brown – I’ve been preaching this and preaching this. Stay away from Houston running backs. Everyone was excited about Foster this week and I just didn’t understand it. All it takes is one fumble and the “starter” gets sent to the bench for the rest of the game. Anyone who owned Steve Slaton or Ryan Moats knows all about this. If you played Foster in week 15, now you do, too.

Felix Jones – His touches continue to increase over the last month or two and it’s something worth keeping an eye on. Since week 11, he’s seen no fewer than 9 looks in any given week. His latest effort was 15 looks (14 touches) against the Saints. He racked up 68 yards on those touches and is still averaging just under 6 yards per carry.

Greg Camarillo – Mentioned him last week after he was targeted 17 times in 2 games. Make it 27 times in 3 games after 10 more looks this week. He only caught 5 of them for 46 yards, but bump him up a few notches on your watch list.

Devin Aromashodu – Devin Hester was out again so another guy I mentioned last week saw significant action. Aromashodu saw 10 more targets, but disappointed in the execution part of the deal with only 2 receptions for 10 yards. Hard to recommend him going forward, but if Hester is out again in week 16, those double-digit targets in back-to-back weeks make him worth consideration in deeper leagues.

Bernard Berrian – 7 targets, 5 catches, 36 yards. 6 targets , 4 catches , 43 yards . 5 targets, 3 catches , 25 yards. Those are Berrian’s stat lines from his last three games. Add to the equation that Brett Favre and the running game are struggling and that 6-4-35 average line feels even worse.

Kevin Curtis – Back in the fold in week 15, but was targeted only twice. Jeremy Maclin should still be out in week 16, but there is no reason to believe Curtis will see more than 4-5 looks a game going forward with Jackson, Celek, Avant, and Brown ahead of him for looks. He has potential because this offense is so stellar, but he’s not worth the gamble this week.