I’m a believer that the most important day of a fantasy football season is draft day. Sure, it matters what players you start on a week-to-week basis, but it all comes down to what players you have on your roster. The deeper your roster is filled with talent, the better.

I also believe that the first two rounds of the draft are over-hyped. They are definitely the most exciting rounds, but you really can’t mess up a pick that much early on in the draft. When the draft is over, you feel like a winner if you love your stars, have confidence in your backups, and have faith in the players you gambled on.

One thing every fantasy footballer loves is to get a good “steal”. Let’s take a look at some players you will be able to find later on in the draft that could end up saving your season.

Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots. Julian Edelman isn’t exactly a number one or two fantasy receiver right now, but he could be a viable flex option. While all signs are positive on Wes Welker’s surgically repaired knee, Edelman will no doubt have a bigger role this upcoming season.

When filling in for Welker last season, Edelman produced solid fantasy numbers. In Week 2, he hauled in 8 passes for 98 yards and in Week 17 he caught 10 for 103 yards. He was also able to catch 6 balls for 44 yards and scored both of the Patriots touchdowns in the postseason loss to the Ravens.

Should Welker miss the start of the season, there is no doubt in my mind Edelman will step in and fill the gap. Even when Welker does return, Edelman’s numbers might not take a huge hit. The Patriots often run 4 or 5-wideout sets and are great at spreading the ball around.

Edelman will be available in almost all drafts in the closing rounds and should not be overlooked. I wouldn’t expect loads of touchdowns from him, but he will prove to be a solid backup and/or flex option…even more so in PPR leagues.

Devin Hester, Devin Aromashodu, Johnny Knox, WRs, Chicago Bears. No, I’m not saying draft all three. In fact, until the first few preseason games have been played, it’s a little unclear which one of these guys will be Jay Cutler’s first choice. Perhaps that isn’t a great thing, but we are looking for good late round steals, not top-5 picks.

The most important thing to keep in mind while drafting a Bears wide receiver this year is that Mike Martz is the new offensive coordinator. Martz love to air it out, and that will greatly benefit all parties involved from a fantasy standpoint.

Hester was the number one option last season, catching a respectable 57 passes for 757 yards while missing three whole games. He did only score 3 touchdowns though, two of which came in the first few games of the season. Knox led the trio with 5 touchdowns last season and had 527 yards but was inconsistent.

The biggest dark horse of the three seems to be Aromashodu. In the last four weeks of last season, he hauled in 22 catches for 282 yards and 4 touchdowns. He definitely seemed to find some sort of a connection with Cutler, which figures to carry over into next season.

All three of these player’s numbers will rise next year for two simple reasons. Mike Martz really does like to pass the ball, and Jay Cutler has one year of experience of playing with these guys under his belt. The Bears do spend Weeks 14 and 16 outdoors in Chicago, but they get a Week 15 game in a dome at Minnesota, who has shaky pass coverage at best.

If in doubt, draft a player on the…Saints. This is certainly not a draft strategy to follow for all rounds, but the point is to never overlook the importance of what team a player is on. 19 different players scored a total of 72 touchdowns for the Saints last season. That is an average of 4.5 touchdowns a game. They also had six players with over 5 touchdowns (Mike Bell, Darren Sharper, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem).

If you are in a middle or late round and debating between two players you feel are of equal value, take a look at the team they play on. More chances a team your player is on has to score equates to more chances your player has to score.

Sophomore Slump? You always hear of media talking about a sophomore slump that quarterbacks experience, but does it also affect their fantasy performances?

Matt Ryan averaged 215 yards a game and threw 16 touchdowns in his first year. Last year, while missing two games, he averaged 208 yards and threw 22 touchdowns. He completed two less passes last season (remember, he missed two games), but his completion percentage dropped nearly 3%.

Joe Flacco averaged 185 yards a game and threw 14 touchdowns his first year while averaging 225 yards a game and tossed 21 touchdowns last year. He threw 71 more passes in his second season as well.

Neither one of those players suffered any sophomore slump from a fantasy standpoint. In fact, their fantasy value rose significantly in the touchdown department. Both quarterbacks were allowed to throw the ball a little bit more, as they each saw their attempts rise. Like I said earlier, the more chances players get to score…the more they score.

This year’s sophomore quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, should expect to see their fantasy stock rise as well. In fact, neither Stafford nor Sanchez has anywhere to go but up from a fantasy standpoint. They both threw under 2,500 yards and Stafford threw 13 touchdowns to Sanchez’s 12. Stafford did only start 10 games, but that makes the 20 interceptions he threw look worse.

Both Stafford and Sanchez have solid supporting casts around them. Stafford has one of the best receivers in the game in Calvin Johnson, and has other offensive weapons such as Brandon Pettigrew and Jahvid Best at his disposal.

It’s no secret what the Jets have done in the off-season, adding Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes to line up across from Braylon Edwards, who caught 16 touchdowns in 2007. The addition of Ladanian Tomlinson will help Sanchez’s fantasy value as well, as Tomlinson is one of the best out-of-the-backfield backs to ever play the game.

Neither one of these guys will be in the first wave of quarterbacks taken off the board, but they are definitely strong backups worthy of starter consideration based on their matchups on a week-to-week basis.

Kevin Kolb will prove he is the real deal with a strong 2010 season.

Considering I’m a probabilities/numbers guy, bold predictions are never easy to come up with. Still, there is a qualitative side to fantasy football and that in itself will always allow me to love/hate guys more than the consensus. That being said, here are a few bold predictions based on my current 2010 projections:

1. Andre Johnson and Wes Welker will finish 2010 as the top scoring PPR wide receivers – Projecting such a finish for Andre Johnson is anything but bold, but Wes Welker at number two should grab your attention. Many are extremely skeptical that Welker can be back in uniform by week 1, but recent reports seem to indicate otherwise. I’m predicting a slow start to the season for him, but he will be back to his old self by week 3-4 and will end up with 120 receptions and 1,300 yards. Considering Welker’s recent ADP, he will still be on the board when you are up in round 4. Don’t pass him up.

2. Devin Hester will lead the Bears in receptions en route to a top 20 fantasy season among WRs – There is a ton of buzz surrounding Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu, but don’t overlook the veteran playmaker Hester. The former Miami Hurricane averaged 4.4 receptions/game last season, which translates to 70 receptions in 16 games. Mike Martz is in town to tune an already pass heavy offense, Jay Cutler will improve his interception rate, and the Cutler-Hester connection now has a season under its belt. Considering Hester will, again, be the WR1 in what should be the league’s pass heaviest offense, he’s looking at statistics in the area of 70 catches, 1,000 yards, and 6 scores.

3. Kevin Kolb will prove to be the real deal – Many consider Kolb to be a backend starting QB in 12 team leagues this year. The bold have him as a borderline top 5 option thanks to the Eagles potent offensive attack, while the naysayers say he is too inexperienced and risky to rely on as a QB1. Although I think a top 5 finish would be pushing the envelope, I will be completely shocked if Kolb plays all 16 games and ends up outside the top 12. We know the Eagles will pass the ball a ton, we know he’s already produced when asked to do so, and we know a few talented, young-but-not-rookie quarterbacks who have been fantasy gold over the last few seasons. In 2008, his first season as the starter, 25 year old and 3 year vet Aaron Rodgers was third in scoring among quarterbacks. In 2006, also his first season as a starter, 25 year old and 2 year vet Philip Rivers ranked 8th among quarterbacks. In 2010, his first season as a full-time starter, 26 year old and 3 year vet Kevin Kolb will prove he is one of the more talented quarterbacks in the league. It will lead him to a top 8 finish among quarterbacks.

4. Superbowl XLV will match the Ravens with the Packers – This one isn’t Fantasy Football related, but these are the two teams I’m currently highest on in each conference. Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers , Ray Rice and Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings and Anquan Boldin. JerMichael Finley and Derrick Mason. Talk about some fantasy firepower in the big game! Who will win? How about Green Bay 38, Baltimore 34. Nothing like a shootout on Superbowl Sunday.

The Patriots overhauled the tight end position and added one of the best wide receivers of the last decade this offseason, but also bring back almost everyone who made an impact on offense in 2009. Tom Brady will lead the offense and all 5 running backs from last year’s team return. It is unknown how long Wes Welker’s injury will keep him out, but Julian Edelman can help fill his void. Torry Holt was signed to add some talent at the wide receiver position. Ben Watson and Chris Baker are gone at tight end. Alge Crumpler and 2010 draft picks Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez will replace them.

QB: Tom Brady : 366-of-563, 4321 yards, 28 TD, 12 INT, 32 carries, 64 yards, 1 TD – We’ll never see another 2007 season from Brady, but he is still a top 5 QB. He will be a little bit of a sleeper this year with most people’s attention on Rodgers/Rivers/Manning/Brees. The team added Holt, who still has a little bit left in the tank, and Hernandez, who some feel could be an elite pass catching tight end for a long time.

RB: Laurence Maroney : 173 carries, 690 yards, 6 TD, 17 targets, 13 receptions, 103 yards – Maroney won’t do much damage in the pass game, but should see a majority of the early down carries this season. Still, Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris will steal a ton of work, which kills his fantasy value. You shouldn’t feel comfortable with him in your starting lineup.

Wes Welker's health is a serious concern, but he will be a big time steal in fantasy drafts if he misses no more than 3-4 games this season.

RB: Fred Taylor : 127 carries, 534 yards, 4 TD, 12 targets, 8 receptions, 64 yards
RB: Sammy Morris : 59 carries, 260 yards, 2 TD, 23 targets, 16 receptions, 147 yards
RB: Kevin Faulk: 54 carries, 283 yards, 2 TD, 58 targets, 43 receptions, 354 yards, 1 TD – Although Maroney will see the largest chunk of the carries, these three will see plenty of action. Taylor will be mixed in on early downs and in goal line situations. Morris might see some third down work and will be a short yardage asset. Faulk will be relied on heavily on third down and could end up being the team’s high scorer at RB in PPR leagues.

WR: Randy Moss : 128 targets, 73 receptions, 1108 yards, 11 TD – Moss is arguably the best TD threat among wide receivers, but will lose a few targets this season after the additions of Holt and the young tight ends. Welker’s injury could force them to lean harder on Moss, but that wasn’t the way the story went in 2009, when they instead turned to Julian Edelman. Regardless, Moss is a top 5 fantasy WR.

WR: Wes Welker : 145 targets, 108 receptions, 1186 yards, 4 TD – This projection assumes Welker misses 4 (yes, 4) games. Note that he was targeted 162 times last season and missed more than 2 games. Brady will rely heavily on him when he’s out there and he will be the top PPR WR if he manages to get back for the opener.

WR: Torry Holt : 46 targets, 24 receptions, 335 yards, 2 TD
WR: Julian Edelman: 46 targets, 32 receptions, 324 yards, 1 TD – Holt should start for the Patriots, but will never be more than the 3rd option in the pass game. Edelman won’t be much of a factor as long as Welker is active. If Welker is out of the lineup, Edelman becomes a decent WR2 option in PPR leagues.

TE: Aaron Hernandez : 41 targets, 25 receptions, 330 yards, 3 TD – It’s a bit early to know for sure what kind of impact Hernandez and fellow rookie Rob Gronkowski will make, but for now we are figuring that Alge Crumpler will be the TE1 and handle most of the blocking duties. Hernandez will be used in passing situations and should end up as the tight end with the most receptions.

This is the point in the fantasy season where owning a great player on an NFL team with one of the league’s best records gets tricky. The “will he or won’t he rest” debate has been on for a week now and it’s going to continue all the way up to week 17.

Taking that into consideration, I threw some notes together on six teams who are or could be in a position to rest players over the next 2 weeks. I also add some fantasy advice to help you make decisions if you happen to own any of the players expected to rest. Note that I’m not guaranteeing these players will rest and I’m not advising you sit them unless it is reported that they will sit out.

Colts – Clinched home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

Fantasy Studs: Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne

Available Replacements: Curtis Painter, Mike Hart, Gijon Robinson, Hank Baskett

It’s possible that the Colts could go all out for the 16-0 record, but there is always the chance that the fantasy studs in question could take a seat and rest up for the playoffs.

If Manning were to take a seat, Curtis Painter would step in. The rookie has little experience and would not be relied on to make big plays. You shouldn’t bother with him. If Addai were to sit, it is unlikely that rookie Donald Brown would play considering his recent injury issues. Mike Hart has been spelling Addai for weeks and would likely get significant work. He is worth consideration as a Flex play if he were to be announced the starter for any of the final 2 games. If Clark sits, any of Gijon Robinson, Jacob Tamme, or Tom Santi could see most of the targets, but Robinson is the most likely bet. Considering how Indy uses the tight end, he is a tempting play if you’re a Clark owner. Replacing Reggie Wayne is trickier because Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon are likely owned in your league. Hank Baskett (and Anthony Gonzalez if he is healthy) will see extra reps if Wayne sits.

Patriots – A win away from clinching the division, but still tied with the Bengals for the 3-seed. We could see players rested once the division is clinched, but it isn’t likely until at least week 17.

Fantasy Studs: Tom Brady, Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss, Wes Welker

Available Replacements: Brian Hoyer, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Sam Aiken, Julian Edelman

If Brady were to take a seat, backup Hoyer would take control. He has very limited experience and is not someone you want to be relying on. The Patriots backfield is tricky because it’s already a three-headed attack with Maroney, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk (four if you include Fred Taylor, who should be back soon). Each of those players has plenty of experience and/or injury concerns. Green-Ellis handled the load for this team late in the 2008 season and could be called on again for some work later this year. That said, he’s not worth starting in fantasy leagues because the other players mentioned would likely still be involved in some nature. If Moss and Welker are sent to the bench, Sam Aiken and Julian Edelman would move up to the WR1 and 2 roles. Aiken has proven to be a big play WR, while Edelman filled in nicely for Welker when he missed time earlier this season.

Chargers – The Chargers are 11-3 and no other team in the AFC is better than 9-5 or worse than 14-0. That means they have plenty of separation from the one team they are chasing and the several teams chasing them. This is likely to result in rest for key players in week 17 and possibly in week 16.

Fantasy Studs: Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson

Available Replacements: Billy Volek, Michael Bennett, Brandon Manumaleuna, Legedu Naanee

If Rivers were to sit, Volek is a player worth considering if you don’t have a decent backup. Tomlinson is very likely to rest and because Sproles could sit as well, Bennett should step in and see some reps. Rest for Gates would mean more work for Manumaleuna and Kris Wilson. Neither are likely to be better plays than your backup or what is on your waiver wire. If Jackson rests, Floyd would likely move up to the WR1 slot to get some experience. Naanee, Kassim Osgood, and Buster Davis would all see work as well.

Saints – One more win clinches homefield throughout the playoffs and they no longer have to try for the 16-0 record, which likely means rest for starters over the next 2 games.

Fantasy Studs: Drew Brees, Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush/Mike Bell, Jeremy Shockey, Marques Colston

Available replacements: Mark Brunell, Lynell Hamilton, David Thomas, Lance Moore

When Brees takes some time off, it will be the veteran Mark Brunell who steps in. He is at least slightly appealing considering the finally tuned offensive machine he’d be running, but the team would more than likely run the ball as much as possible. In deeper leagues, you could consider him if you had Brees, but there are likely better options out there. If the Saints decide to rest their three-headed RB monster, Lynell Hamilton would see a ton of work. He is very appealing in most formats. If he gets the start, feel free to deploy him as your RB2. Shockey is already out with an injury and David Thomas filled in nicely in week 15. He’s a fine replacement if you need TE help down the stretch. If Colston takes some time off, Lance Moore would see an increase in workload. Robert Meachem is starting for a lot of people right now and playing a lot for New Orleans, but I’d imagine that Colston and Devery Henderson would get a break before he does. Someone has to play after all.

Vikings – A Vikings win at Chicago this week coupled with an Eagles loss at home to Denver clinches the Vikings a first round bye, which means week 17 rest for most players against the Giants.

Fantasy Studs: Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, Visanthe Shiancoe, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian

Available Replacements: Tarvaris Jackson, Chester Taylor, Jim Kleinsasser, Greg Lewis, Darius Reynaud, Jaymar Johnson
Tarvaris Jackson / Chester Taylor

Favre might be the most likely player in this article to see significant rest over the team’s final two games. If so, Jackson is a player worth considering in deeper leagues. He’s played well in minimal action this season. If Peterson were to get some rest, it would likely be Chester Taylor who would see extra work. Albert Young would get reps as well. I wouldn’t recommend Kleinsasser or Jeff Dugan if Shiancoe sits, but there is definitely touchdown potential there. If the team’s top 3 receivers get some rest, Lewis and the inexperienced Johnson and Reynaud would see work. The rookie Harvin could see extended work, but it is doubtful considering his recent injury woes.

Cardinals – Arizona has already clinched the NFC West and is currently the fourth seed, but still has an outside chance at a first round bye. Depending on how things go in week 16, we could see players rested in week 17.

Fantasy Studs: Kurt Warner, Beanie Wells, Tim Hightower, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin

Available Replacements: Matt Leinart, LaRod Stephens-Howling, Jason Wright, Early Doucet, Jerheme Urban

Unless Arizona somehow manages to get some breaks and has a legit shot at a first round bye, I’d be very surprised if Matt Leinart does not see some work over the next two weeks. He has some nice upside if you’re looking for a sleeper at QB. Wells has an injury plagued resume, so don’t be shocked if he gets some rest. Hightower could get a breather as well with the capable Stephens-Howling and Wright available to pick up the slack. If Fitzgerald and the oft-injured Boldin sit, Steve Breaston would likely see a few more looks. Doucet and Urban would also see an extended workload.