I’m a believer that the most important day of a fantasy football season is draft day. Sure, it matters what players you start on a week-to-week basis, but it all comes down to what players you have on your roster. The deeper your roster is filled with talent, the better.
I also believe that the first two rounds of the draft are over-hyped. They are definitely the most exciting rounds, but you really can’t mess up a pick that much early on in the draft. When the draft is over, you feel like a winner if you love your stars, have confidence in your backups, and have faith in the players you gambled on.
One thing every fantasy footballer loves is to get a good “steal”. Let’s take a look at some players you will be able to find later on in the draft that could end up saving your season.
Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots. Julian Edelman isn’t exactly a number one or two fantasy receiver right now, but he could be a viable flex option. While all signs are positive on Wes Welker’s surgically repaired knee, Edelman will no doubt have a bigger role this upcoming season.
When filling in for Welker last season, Edelman produced solid fantasy numbers. In Week 2, he hauled in 8 passes for 98 yards and in Week 17 he caught 10 for 103 yards. He was also able to catch 6 balls for 44 yards and scored both of the Patriots touchdowns in the postseason loss to the Ravens.
Should Welker miss the start of the season, there is no doubt in my mind Edelman will step in and fill the gap. Even when Welker does return, Edelman’s numbers might not take a huge hit. The Patriots often run 4 or 5-wideout sets and are great at spreading the ball around.
Edelman will be available in almost all drafts in the closing rounds and should not be overlooked. I wouldn’t expect loads of touchdowns from him, but he will prove to be a solid backup and/or flex option…even more so in PPR leagues.
Devin Hester, Devin Aromashodu, Johnny Knox, WRs, Chicago Bears. No, I’m not saying draft all three. In fact, until the first few preseason games have been played, it’s a little unclear which one of these guys will be Jay Cutler’s first choice. Perhaps that isn’t a great thing, but we are looking for good late round steals, not top-5 picks.
The most important thing to keep in mind while drafting a Bears wide receiver this year is that Mike Martz is the new offensive coordinator. Martz love to air it out, and that will greatly benefit all parties involved from a fantasy standpoint.
Hester was the number one option last season, catching a respectable 57 passes for 757 yards while missing three whole games. He did only score 3 touchdowns though, two of which came in the first few games of the season. Knox led the trio with 5 touchdowns last season and had 527 yards but was inconsistent.
The biggest dark horse of the three seems to be Aromashodu. In the last four weeks of last season, he hauled in 22 catches for 282 yards and 4 touchdowns. He definitely seemed to find some sort of a connection with Cutler, which figures to carry over into next season.
All three of these player’s numbers will rise next year for two simple reasons. Mike Martz really does like to pass the ball, and Jay Cutler has one year of experience of playing with these guys under his belt. The Bears do spend Weeks 14 and 16 outdoors in Chicago, but they get a Week 15 game in a dome at Minnesota, who has shaky pass coverage at best.
If in doubt, draft a player on the…Saints. This is certainly not a draft strategy to follow for all rounds, but the point is to never overlook the importance of what team a player is on. 19 different players scored a total of 72 touchdowns for the Saints last season. That is an average of 4.5 touchdowns a game. They also had six players with over 5 touchdowns (Mike Bell, Darren Sharper, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem).
If you are in a middle or late round and debating between two players you feel are of equal value, take a look at the team they play on. More chances a team your player is on has to score equates to more chances your player has to score.
Sophomore Slump? You always hear of media talking about a sophomore slump that quarterbacks experience, but does it also affect their fantasy performances?
Matt Ryan averaged 215 yards a game and threw 16 touchdowns in his first year. Last year, while missing two games, he averaged 208 yards and threw 22 touchdowns. He completed two less passes last season (remember, he missed two games), but his completion percentage dropped nearly 3%.
Joe Flacco averaged 185 yards a game and threw 14 touchdowns his first year while averaging 225 yards a game and tossed 21 touchdowns last year. He threw 71 more passes in his second season as well.
Neither one of those players suffered any sophomore slump from a fantasy standpoint. In fact, their fantasy value rose significantly in the touchdown department. Both quarterbacks were allowed to throw the ball a little bit more, as they each saw their attempts rise. Like I said earlier, the more chances players get to score…the more they score.
This year’s sophomore quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez, should expect to see their fantasy stock rise as well. In fact, neither Stafford nor Sanchez has anywhere to go but up from a fantasy standpoint. They both threw under 2,500 yards and Stafford threw 13 touchdowns to Sanchez’s 12. Stafford did only start 10 games, but that makes the 20 interceptions he threw look worse.
Both Stafford and Sanchez have solid supporting casts around them. Stafford has one of the best receivers in the game in Calvin Johnson, and has other offensive weapons such as Brandon Pettigrew and Jahvid Best at his disposal.
It’s no secret what the Jets have done in the off-season, adding Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes to line up across from Braylon Edwards, who caught 16 touchdowns in 2007. The addition of Ladanian Tomlinson will help Sanchez’s fantasy value as well, as Tomlinson is one of the best out-of-the-backfield backs to ever play the game.
Neither one of these guys will be in the first wave of quarterbacks taken off the board, but they are definitely strong backups worthy of starter consideration based on their matchups on a week-to-week basis.
