Kevin Kolb will prove he is the real deal with a strong 2010 season.

Considering I’m a probabilities/numbers guy, bold predictions are never easy to come up with. Still, there is a qualitative side to fantasy football and that in itself will always allow me to love/hate guys more than the consensus. That being said, here are a few bold predictions based on my current 2010 projections:

1. Andre Johnson and Wes Welker will finish 2010 as the top scoring PPR wide receivers – Projecting such a finish for Andre Johnson is anything but bold, but Wes Welker at number two should grab your attention. Many are extremely skeptical that Welker can be back in uniform by week 1, but recent reports seem to indicate otherwise. I’m predicting a slow start to the season for him, but he will be back to his old self by week 3-4 and will end up with 120 receptions and 1,300 yards. Considering Welker’s recent ADP, he will still be on the board when you are up in round 4. Don’t pass him up.

2. Devin Hester will lead the Bears in receptions en route to a top 20 fantasy season among WRs – There is a ton of buzz surrounding Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashodu, but don’t overlook the veteran playmaker Hester. The former Miami Hurricane averaged 4.4 receptions/game last season, which translates to 70 receptions in 16 games. Mike Martz is in town to tune an already pass heavy offense, Jay Cutler will improve his interception rate, and the Cutler-Hester connection now has a season under its belt. Considering Hester will, again, be the WR1 in what should be the league’s pass heaviest offense, he’s looking at statistics in the area of 70 catches, 1,000 yards, and 6 scores.

3. Kevin Kolb will prove to be the real deal – Many consider Kolb to be a backend starting QB in 12 team leagues this year. The bold have him as a borderline top 5 option thanks to the Eagles potent offensive attack, while the naysayers say he is too inexperienced and risky to rely on as a QB1. Although I think a top 5 finish would be pushing the envelope, I will be completely shocked if Kolb plays all 16 games and ends up outside the top 12. We know the Eagles will pass the ball a ton, we know he’s already produced when asked to do so, and we know a few talented, young-but-not-rookie quarterbacks who have been fantasy gold over the last few seasons. In 2008, his first season as the starter, 25 year old and 3 year vet Aaron Rodgers was third in scoring among quarterbacks. In 2006, also his first season as a starter, 25 year old and 2 year vet Philip Rivers ranked 8th among quarterbacks. In 2010, his first season as a full-time starter, 26 year old and 3 year vet Kevin Kolb will prove he is one of the more talented quarterbacks in the league. It will lead him to a top 8 finish among quarterbacks.

4. Superbowl XLV will match the Ravens with the Packers – This one isn’t Fantasy Football related, but these are the two teams I’m currently highest on in each conference. Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers , Ray Rice and Ryan Grant, Greg Jennings and Anquan Boldin. JerMichael Finley and Derrick Mason. Talk about some fantasy firepower in the big game! Who will win? How about Green Bay 38, Baltimore 34. Nothing like a shootout on Superbowl Sunday.

The Eagles made some big moves this offseason, releasing Brian Westbrook and trading Donovan McNabb. When you also consider that the team’s top WR from only 2 seasons ago (Kevin Curtis) is gone and Brent Celek’s emergence at tight end, you see a complete overhaul on offense by the Eagles.

QB: Kevin Kolb : 331-of-534 , 4042 yards , 26 TD, 16 INT, 40 carries, 121 yards, 1 TD – Kolb will complete more passes than McNabb, but they will be to both teams. Expect to see a higher completion percentage, but also a higher interception rate. Still, Kolb has the talent to be both an excellent NFL quarterback and a top-scoring fantasy contributor.

LeSean McCoy (29) is the main man at running back with Brian Westbrook out of the picture.

RB: LeSean McCoy : 194 carries , 813 yards , 6 TD , 80 targets , 55 receptions , 443 yards , 2 TD – Coach Andy Reid has made it clear that McCoy is the main man heading into his 2nd season. Mike Bell will take away some goal line work, but it’s safe to say “Shady” will handle around 15 touches a game.

RB: Mike Bell : 81 carries , 323 yards , 3 TD , 17 targets , 12 receptions , 85 yards – After leading the title-winning Saints in carries, Bell was given a one-year contract to handcuff LeSean McCoy and provide some punch at the goal line. McCoy owners should snag him late as a safety valve.

WR: DeSean Jackson : 126 targets , 66 receptions , 1046 yards , 8 TD – Jackson will again be an elite fantasy WR, but won’t be quite as valuable in PPR leagues considering his low catch total. Don’t expect much of a drop-off despite the change at quarterback.

WR: Jeremy Maclin : 109 targets , 64 receptions , 889 yards , 5 TD – Maclin and Jackson were about even in targets during the later stages of the 2009 season and that should again be the case next season despite the fact that Kolb favored Jackson and Celek during his two 2009 starts.

WR: Jason Avant : 69 targets , 45 receptions , 583 yards , 4 TD – Reliable slot contributor Avant returns as the 3rd WR option.

TE: Brent Celek : 121 targets , 81 receptions , 969 yards , 8 TD – Celek became a must-start Tight End in 2009 and he will be a top 10 option once again next season.

New York Giants

Quote: Wide Receiver Steve Smith on which Giant he thinks will have a breakout season this year: “I would say Ahmad Bradshaw, because I think the WRs will all progress, but Bradshaw is ready to take his game to another level. He had his ankles and feet worked on, and he has enough talent and enough ability to make some big plays for us.”

Could Ahmad Bradshaw (44) surpass Brandon Jacobs as the Giants lead back in 2010?

The Spin: As many have speculated, it looks more and more like Ahmad Bradshaw will be the primary back in 2010. Although, Bradshaw still has nagging injuries which has limited his practice time during OTAs. Jacobs has looked healthy and has taken the majority of first team snaps. Reports say both look much faster than last year when they have gotten on the field. This still looks like a running back by committee situation but I would count on Bradshaw getting the majority of snaps if he is healthy.

Quote: Wide Receiver Steve Smith on Wide Receiver Ramses Barden: “I see him getting on the field this year and catching some TDs in the red zone and making some plays for us. He was a third-round pick, so I’m assuming they want to get him on the field to see what he can do.”

The Spin: Ramses Barden’s large frame would be a threat in the end zone but I would not get too excited about him. Steve Smith is in contract talks now for a long term deal and Hakeem Nicks has a lengthy rookie deal as well. Giants love to run the football and the third or fourth wide receiver in this offense has very limited upside. Barring injury, Ramses will have to land on another team in order to be a force in fantasy football.

Other News:
Running Back coach Jerald Ingram believes Running Backs D.J. Ware and Andre Brown would have been factors in the passing game in 2009 had they not dealt with injuries. Ingram noted both players for their ability to make catches out of the backfield. As we have seen with Jacobs, Bradshaw and  Ward, Giants are no strangers to the running back by committee approach.

Dallas Cowboys

Quote: Cornerback Mike Jenkins on rookie wide receiver Dez Bryant
“He’s going to be great, man. I’ve never seen a young guy come in the first day (like that),” said Jenkins, voted to his first Pro Bowl last year in his first season as a starter. “Usually guys need a day to get into it.
“I wanted to get a feel for him today. I kind of lined up in his face like I was going to press. He seems like one of those guys who likes to be pressed, likes to be physical.”
Quote: Offensive Coordinator on Dez Bryant
“I thought he came out and did a nice job,” “He’s still learning a lot. There’s a lot of stuff we’re installing on a daily basis, but he seemed to pick it up well and I thought he had a good day.”

The Spin:
There are two things I worry about with rookie wide receivers. 1) Getting off the line of scrimmage and 2) Learning the offense. Mike Jenkins’ forte is press coverage and he made the probowl last year doing it. Bryant reportedly had no problem getting off of Jenkins’ jam. The ability is there and the sky is the limit for Dez if he can learn the offense and the route running. According to Jason Garrett and Mike Jenkins, so far so good. It is safe to say, Roy Williams days are numbered.

Washington Redskins

Quote: Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan.
“We don’t really talk about that stuff because we want three guys who all can do it. Whoever can do it, will do it. Clinton’s running with the starters. We’re planning on it being that way until the next guy steps up.”

The Spin:
From what we have seen up until now, Mike Shanahan is not a guy that has fallen into the running back by committee trend. Camp reports show that Portis is getting almost all of the work with the first team and is right now on top the depth chart. The last time Clinton Portis and Mike Shanahan were together Portis averaged an insane 146 total yards per game. I am not suggesting the same would happen this year; but if Portis is half of what he used to be, he has value. Current Yahoo mocks have Portis going off as the 42nd running back on the board and 109th overall. Eventually, someone in the Washington backfield will out perform their current value. If it appears that Portis is healthy and starting in August, snag him late wherever you can.
Philadelphia Eagles

Quote: Offensive Coordinator Marty Mornhinweg’s on Quarterback Kevin Kolb
“You lean toward a players strengths. And really every team looks different because we are going in and out of really any NFL team. So every year you are building that team and you may look a little bit different because of the strengths that you have on a particular year. I thought without a question Donovan had one of the stronger arms maybe of all-time. He could make the brilliant play. Kolb is very very consistent. He handles two or three different play selections very well. Typically very accurate. Is athletic, but not nearly the athlete and doesn’t have the athleticism as Donovan has. So very different that way.”

Quote: Marty Mornhinweg On LeSean McCoy
“That is a man I should have mentioned earlier. He came into camp at just 180 degrees different. He is very very good right now.
“LeSean is a little bit bigger than people think. This guy is really elusive, really natural athleticism. Again we will try to play to his strengths there.”

The Spin:
The Eagles offense will change some with Kolb at the helm. Mornhinweg’s comments hint that Kolb will be more of a traditional west coast passer than Mcnabb was. It appears Kolb will not throw deep as much and will rely on his accuracy and a shorter field. So what does this mean for fantasy owners? As Mornhinweg said himself, “Kolb is very very consistent” and I expect the same for his fantasy value. As Morninhweg suggested, McNabb’s talent allowed him to scramble and use his big arm to make plays. This naturally just leads to more up and down performances than it would if you relied on your offensive game plan. I look for LeSean McCoy to be a major contributor in the passing game in this system so he can exhibit his elusiveness. And I also look for Jeremy Maclin’s role to increase.

I held off on the Eagles until a decision was made regarding Brian Westbrook. Now that it’s official that he will be a Free Agent on March 5, here is a look at some early 2010 team projections:

QB: Donovan McNabb : 327-of-546 , 4094 yards , 25 TD, 11 INT, 40 carries, 161 yards, 2 TD – I have little reason to believe the Eagles will move McNabb this offseason and we know by now what to expect from vet.

LeSean McCoy is the main man in Philly after the announcement that Brian Westbrook would be cut loose.

RB: LeSean McCoy : 226 carries , 926 yards , 7 TD , 75 targets , 55 receptions , 354 yards , 2 TD – Coach Andy Reid has made it clear that McCoy is the main man heading into his 2nd season. Although we don’t know yet who will compliment him in the backfield, it’s safe to say he should handle around 18 touches a game.

WR: DeSean Jackson : 126 targets , 67 receptions , 1139 yards , 9 TD – Jackson will again be an elite fantasy WR, but won’t be quite as valuable in PPR leagues considering his low catch total.

WR: Jeremy Maclin : 115 targets , 67 receptions , 933 yards , 5 TD – Maclin and Jackson were about even in targets during the later stages of the 2009 season and that should again be the case next season.

WR: Jason Avant : 63 targets , 41 receptions , 534 yards , 2 TD – Assuming he returns (RFA), he will again be the 3rd WR option.

TE: Brent Celek : 115 targets , 79 receptions , 991 yards , 7 TD – Celek became a must-start Tight End in 2009 and he will be a top 10 option once again next season.

Running Backs –

Maurice Morris – I’m fairly certain that I was the only one talking this cat up all week and it paid off with a huge effort on Sunday. I speculated that Morris could touch the ball close to 20 times and he responded with 17 carries for 126 yards and a rushing touchdown along with 6 looks, 5 receptions, and 35 receiving yards. That’s a solid 20+ point effort in most formats.

Advice: I see no reason why anything would change in weeks 16 and 17. Morris should continue to approach 20 touches each week unless the team decides to give Aaron Brown a chance to show what he do. I can’t guarantee Morris will go over the century mark again, but he’s a solid RB2 play in 12 team leagues.

Jerome Harrison – Not many people had Harrison in their lineup this week and rightfully so. There was no telling if Harrison would see most of the looks, or if it would be Chris Jennings, who saw 20 carries in week 14, compared to just 7 for Harrison. Still, even has the backup, Harrison should’ve been considered a very deep sleeper up against the porous Chiefs. He showed up big time with 34 carries, 286 yards, and 3 touchdowns in what is the biggest fantasy performance by a running back this season. This is not Harrison’s first big game of the season. Back in week 4 he went for 152 yards on 34 touches, but the next week he touched the ball just 8 times with Jamal Lewis back in the fold. Lewis is gone now, but Jennings is still in the mix in Cleveland.

Advice: You almost have to consider Harrison in your flex spot for week 16, but you shouldn’t feel comfortable about it and you won’t hear me recommending it. The Browns run offense has been anything but effective for a majority of the season and the split in carries has been off the charts inconsistent. He has upside, but don’t be shocked if he ends up with 28 total yards on 9 touches.

Michael Bush – An injury to Justin Fargas allowed Michael Bush to rush for 133 yards and a score on 18 carries against Denver on Sunday. Prior to that game, Bush had carried the ball only 8 times since week 11. Fargas’ injury seems to be minor and if he is back in the fold next week, Bush cannot be relied on for double-digit looks once again. Although you’d expect him to see more looks after such a strong effort, it’s still a three-headed monster in Oakland.

Advice: Unless Fargas is out or Coach Cable says otherwise, Bush is third in line for carries and should not be considered in any format. If Fargas is out or Bush is named the RB2, those of you in very deep leagues who are desperate for help at your flex spot can consider his services.

Jason Snelling – Michael Turner made his return in week 15, which led to the masses dropping Snelling. Turner lasted only 1 carry before sitting out the rest of the game and it’s unknown whether he will suit up for the rest of the season, especially considering that Atlanta has been eliminated from the playoffs. Snelling ended up with only 64 yards, but did have an intriguing 21 looks, which was 10 more than seen by Jerious Norwood.

Advice: Snelling has done an okay job filling in for Turner when he’s missed time and that, coupled with the fact that he could start the team’s final 2 games, means he’s worth consideration as a flex play going forward. That said, if Turner plays, Snelling should not be in your lineup.

Derrick Ward – Whenever I’ve had an empty roster spot this season, Ward has been a player I’ve consistently turned to. Cadillac Williams has stayed relatively healthy so it hasn’t quite paid off as I’d hoped, but consider that in week 15, Ward carried the ball 19 times compared to 12 for Williams. Williams did, however, rack up 88 total yards on 13 touches, which was more efficient than the 73 yards on 20 touches for Ward. Neither has been overly impressive this season, but it’s worth keeping an eye on the timeshare.

Advice: You can’t rely on 20 touches for Ward unless news breaks that he is the new starter. If you have a roster spot to fill, he’s a good speculative pick for your bench, but nothing more right now.

Wide Receivers –

Lance Moore – Moore was back in the fold in week 15 and took advantage by scoring a touchdown despite only 2 looks. Despite the score, two looks should concern you if you’re considering using him in week 16 for several reasons. (a) It’s two looks. That’s not a lot (b) The Saints threw the ball 45 times, which is almost a dozen more pass attempts than they average a game this season and (c) The percentage of passes going to his teammates was about the same as in recent weeks. I’d mention that Jeremy Shockey was out as another reason to be skeptical of Moore, but David Thomas filled in with a whopping 10 targets, which is more than even Shockey is accustomed to.

Advice: Moore will always have decent potential because of the outstanding offense he is a part of, but he’s going to have trouble finding playing time with all the stars around him. At this point, he’s only worth a desperate play in a deep league.

Malcom Floyd – Floyd didn’t exactly light it up after Chris Chambers was cut loose, but he’s now been targeted a total of 16 times over the last 2 games. That is a healthy number for a player not being used in most leagues, but part of the reason for that is the fact that he’s caught only 7 of those 16 balls.

Advice: Any player seeing 8 targets a game in an above average offense is worth keeping an eye on. Floyd isn’t the safest play, but he has a ton of upside and is worth consideration in WR-deep leagues.

Josh Morgan has now been targeted at least 8 times in 3 of the 49ers last 4 games.

Josh Morgan – One of the most popular sleepers heading into this season, Morgan has been a disappointment for fantasy owners who reached on him in their draft. He’s quietly been picking it up over the last few weeks, as he’s now been targeted 8 times in 3 of the 49ers last 4 games. His numbers from the last four games (which includes a 3-catch, 14-yard week 14 effort) total to 29 targets, 22 receptions, 174 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Morgan is the third option in San Francisco with Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis keeping Alex Smith busy, but he’s a talented receiver yet to break out who is now seeing almost double-digits in looks every game.

Advice: Definitely worth considering in deeper leagues and someone you should definitely snag for your bench if you’re in any type of dynasty league. The Gore-Crabtree-Morgan-V Davis offense has tons of potential.

Tight Ends –

Bo Scaife – Although Scaife is anything but a gamebreaker, he’s been extremely consistent over the last 6 games and is worth a mention. In those six games, he’s been targeted 42 times, has 25 receptions, 261 yards, and 1 score. He was targeted 10 times on one occasion and has caught 5 balls three times. His high for yardage is 68. What does that all mean? It means he’s a safe play for close to 8 points in PPR formats and considering all the targets, it’s only a matter of time before he gets into the endzone again.

Advice: Again, he doesn’t have a ton of breakout potential, but he’s safe for 4 catches, 50 yards. If you’re desperate for tight end help and looking around on the Waiver Wire, he’s worth a look.

Quick Hits and Follow Ups –

Arian Foster / Ryan Moats / Chris Brown – I’ve been preaching this and preaching this. Stay away from Houston running backs. Everyone was excited about Foster this week and I just didn’t understand it. All it takes is one fumble and the “starter” gets sent to the bench for the rest of the game. Anyone who owned Steve Slaton or Ryan Moats knows all about this. If you played Foster in week 15, now you do, too.

Felix Jones – His touches continue to increase over the last month or two and it’s something worth keeping an eye on. Since week 11, he’s seen no fewer than 9 looks in any given week. His latest effort was 15 looks (14 touches) against the Saints. He racked up 68 yards on those touches and is still averaging just under 6 yards per carry.

Greg Camarillo – Mentioned him last week after he was targeted 17 times in 2 games. Make it 27 times in 3 games after 10 more looks this week. He only caught 5 of them for 46 yards, but bump him up a few notches on your watch list.

Devin Aromashodu – Devin Hester was out again so another guy I mentioned last week saw significant action. Aromashodu saw 10 more targets, but disappointed in the execution part of the deal with only 2 receptions for 10 yards. Hard to recommend him going forward, but if Hester is out again in week 16, those double-digit targets in back-to-back weeks make him worth consideration in deeper leagues.

Bernard Berrian – 7 targets, 5 catches, 36 yards. 6 targets , 4 catches , 43 yards . 5 targets, 3 catches , 25 yards. Those are Berrian’s stat lines from his last three games. Add to the equation that Brett Favre and the running game are struggling and that 6-4-35 average line feels even worse.

Kevin Curtis – Back in the fold in week 15, but was targeted only twice. Jeremy Maclin should still be out in week 16, but there is no reason to believe Curtis will see more than 4-5 looks a game going forward with Jackson, Celek, Avant, and Brown ahead of him for looks. He has potential because this offense is so stellar, but he’s not worth the gamble this week.