Tag Archive | "San Diego Chargers"

Don’t Believe the Hype! Two WR situations to look out for!

Tags: ,


Why do we all enjoy fantasy football? Because it’s fun! Every dynasty owner wants to be right, make the best line up call or best strategic draft pick. The goal is to dominate your league and prove to everyone else that you have outwitted and outlasted them or is that a reality show, I digress.

Everyone under the sun has a sleeper or a breakout player. Some sites will give you some information and some will give you conjecture. We will give you facts and a lot of them. Everyone knows the fantastic four RBs i.e. Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Ray Rice. Heck everyone knows the sweet seven QBs i.e. Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Phillip Rivers, and Matt Schaub. We all even know the number #1 WR in fantasy is Andre Johnson. But what about these popular sleepers?

Despite missing all of 2009, Anthony Gonzalez is the best value pick among Colts receivers this season.

Which RB sleeper do you take the chance on Felix Jones, Marion Barber, or Tashard Choice? Jerry Jones and Wade Phillips seem to be serving up a big helping of misinformation on these guys. Time will tell and maybe in another article I will discuss them, but hold off on drafting any of them early.

Right now let’s switch gears and look at the WR position. San Diego WR Malcolm Floyd seems one of the hot topics these days in dynasty and all around fantasy circles considering the Vincent Jackson drama with regards to Vincent’s contract and suspension status. I have chosen to use some interesting stats that you may not have taken into account when looking at a wide receiver. When looking at a WR, one needs to consider the percentage of passes caught that were thrown to them, yards per reception, average yards after catch per reception, and missed/broken tackles (how many times a player got away).

In 2008, Malcolm Floyd was used as a 3rd WR mostly by the Chargers and had a 75% catch rate, 17.2 yd/rec, 2.4 yac/rec, and 1 missed/broken tackle. In 2009, Floyd was used for the first six games or so as a #3 WR and then after Chris Chambers was traded to Kansas City, Floyd became the #2 WR in San Diego. Malcolm had a 60.8% catch rate, the same 17.2 yd/rec, improved his yac/rec to 3.0, and increased to his 5 missed/broken tackles. That tell us Floyd doesn’t fair so well against better coverage, but he has still has the ability to stretch the field. Floyd has also gotten a little bit better in his yards after the catch, and making his would be tacklers miss. Unfortunately what this shows us fantasy peeps is that Floyd had trouble hanging as a #2 WR catching only 60.8% of the passes thrown to him with a #2 CB on him. He might fair even worse against a true #1 CB. If you have him, trade Floyd at his high value and if you are thinking about acquiring him don’t give up too much or attempt to draft him a bit later.

Our second comparison is a bit juicier as it is about one of the top WR cores in the NFL, your Super Bowl runner-ups the Indianapolis Colts. The debate right now is which WRs will emerge as the #2 and #3. Anthony Gonzalez is considered on the outside looking in versus Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. After reviewing the same set of statistics that I based my observations on Malcolm Floyd, I think that Gonzalez might have the a significant edge on Garcon and a slight edge on Collie.

First lets look at the 2009 of the top three Colts wide receivers. Reggie Wayne as the #1 WR had a catch rate of 68.5%, 12.6 yd/rec, 4.4 yac/rec, and 7 missed/broken tackles. Wayne ran every route in the Indianapolis arsenal. Pierre Garcon as the #2 WR had a catch rate of only 53.4%, 16.3 yd/rec, 6.2 yac/rec, and 4 missed/broken tackles. Garcon’s numbers show a huge explosiveness after the catch, but difficulty making the catch. This may be due to the length of passes that were attempted to him, but Pierre is hardly a sure thing. He did improve over the playoffs, but may need more seasoning to jump to the NFL from Mount Union (a small Ohio football school). Austin Collie, on the other hand, as the #3 WR had a catch rate of 70.6%, 11.3 yd/rec, 4.2 yac/rec, and 5 missed/broken tackles. Collie was very consistent with his targets, but not as explosive.

Anthony Gonzalez played the #3 WR role in 2007 and 2008. Gonzalez excelled at this role enough to be considered to be the heir apparent for the #2 WR job in 2009. In 2007, he had a catch rate of 71.4%, 17.0 yd/rec, 5.1 yac/rec, and 4 missed/broken tackles. He had better numbers in comparison to Austin Collie playing the #3 WR role in 2007. In 2008, Gonzalez still playing the #3 WR role had a catch rate of 73.1%, 11.9 yd/rec, 3.7 yac/rec, and 3 missed/broken tackles. Clearly Anthony Gonzalez stretched the field less as in 2008, but was very efficient catching the ball from Peyton Manning in comparison to Garcon. Gonzalez can fit into any of the WR roles that the Colts have to offer. He is going much later in fantasy drafts right now than Wayne, Garcon, or Collie. The smart play in fact may be dealing Reggie Wayne as he is the oldest of the WRs and is complaining about his contact. As the numbers have shown, Gonzalez can play. Don’t discount any of the young Colts receivers and try to find value when you can get it. This year that will be Anthony Gonzalez.

A quick recap: Don’t always believe the sleeper hype. There are other stats to look at when judging WRs. Malcolm Floyd is a decent #3 fantasy WR, but don’t get your hopes up with him possibly being the #2 option in San Diego behind Antonio Gates. Anthony Gonzalez has #2 or #3 WR ability in the Indy passing game, so get him cheap. Think about trading Reggie Wayne as all three young Colt WRs are improving and impressing. Kick some dynasty tail!

Looking Ahead – 2010 Chargers

Tags:


The 2010 Chargers won’t have a significantly different look on offense, but it might seem like it after one of the franchise’s all-time best players was cut loose. LaDainian Tomlinson is now a member of the New York Jets, which means 2010 first round pick Ryan Mathews will be asked to handle a majority of the carries. Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates are back to handle the quarterback and tight end jobs, respectively. Vincent Jackson has yet to sign his restricted free agent tender, but should eventually sign and return to the WR1 job after his expected suspension of 2-4 games ends.

Philip Rivers is a top 5 option at quarterback in both redraft and dynasty leagues.

QB: Philip Rivers : 326-of-502, 4207 yards, 28 TD, 11 INT, 26 carries, 52 yards, 1 TD – It appears that Rivers will consistently rank as a top fantasy quarterback for years to come and he currently projects as a top 5 option in 2010. Not having Jackson for the first few games will hurt, but he still has the talent and enough weapons to hang around with the other top quarterbacks.

RB: Ryan Mathews
: 253 carries, 1013 yards, 10 TD, 47 targets, 31 receptions, 215 yards, 1 TD – It’s not often that you’d call a rookie a safe play, but Mathews is as close to that as you can come. He will be stepping right into Tomlinson’s shoes as the early down and goal line back. Darren Sproles will handle most of the work on 3rd down and in passing situations, which hurts Mathews in PPR formats. He’s a borderline RB1 in standard scoring leagues and a solid RB2 PPR option.

RB: Darren Sproles : 86 carries, 344 yards, 3 TD, 57 targets, 43 receptions, 452 yards, 2 TD – Sproles role will not change after the departure of Tomlinson. He will do most of his damage with his pass catching skills and in the return game. Sproles is not built to be an every down back, but is a borderline RB3 in PPR leagues because of his playmaking ability in the pass game.

WR: Vincent Jackson
: 98 targets, 58 receptions, 989 yards, 7 TD – It’s not a matter of if, but rather of when and for how long Jackson will be suspended. These projections assume a 2 game suspension, but it could range anywhere from 1-4 games. When he is on the field, Jackson is a borderline top 15 option. Because of the suspension, however, he will barely score enough points to end up in the top 30 among wide receivers. Combined with a replacement level wide receiver, he still values out as a borderline top 20 option.

WR: Malcom Floyd
: 83 targets, 48 receptions, 771 yards, 5 TD – Floyd will be forced into the WR1 role during Jackson’s suspension and has a lot of value during that span. He will still be the #2 option in the pass game behind Gates, but the top wide receiver in what is a stellar San Diego passing attack has some nice value. Even when Jackson returns, Floyd has WR3 potential. Note that in the 7 games they spent together as the WR1-2 duo in 2010, Jackson had only 8 more targets than Floyd. In fact, Floyd had 6 more total targets than Jackson after Chris Chambers was traded to the Chiefs.

WR: Legedu Naanee : 52 targets, 36 receptions, 397 yards, 3 TD – Naanee caught just about everything thrown his way in 2009 and should be able to lock down the WR3 job this season. He is worth noting because Vincent Jackson owners in deep leagues should consider snagging Naanee late to use in the first few games. He isn’t going to put up huge points, however, so those of you in shallow or standard size leagues can probably do better.

TE: Antonio Gates
: 114 targets, 75 receptions, 998 yards, 9 TD – Gates finished the 2009 season strong and is a top 5 option at tight end again in 2010. Already one of the most targeted tight ends in football, Gates could see even more work early in the year while Jackson is out. Considering his 80-1000-10 potential, he should be one of the top 3 tight ends off the board in your league.

Handcuffing Your Playoff-Bound Studs

Tags: , , , , ,


This is the point in the fantasy season where owning a great player on an NFL team with one of the league’s best records gets tricky. The “will he or won’t he rest” debate has been on for a week now and it’s going to continue all the way up to week 17.

Taking that into consideration, I threw some notes together on six teams who are or could be in a position to rest players over the next 2 weeks. I also add some fantasy advice to help you make decisions if you happen to own any of the players expected to rest. Note that I’m not guaranteeing these players will rest and I’m not advising you sit them unless it is reported that they will sit out.

Colts – Clinched home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

Fantasy Studs: Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne

Available Replacements: Curtis Painter, Mike Hart, Gijon Robinson, Hank Baskett

It’s possible that the Colts could go all out for the 16-0 record, but there is always the chance that the fantasy studs in question could take a seat and rest up for the playoffs.

If Manning were to take a seat, Curtis Painter would step in. The rookie has little experience and would not be relied on to make big plays. You shouldn’t bother with him. If Addai were to sit, it is unlikely that rookie Donald Brown would play considering his recent injury issues. Mike Hart has been spelling Addai for weeks and would likely get significant work. He is worth consideration as a Flex play if he were to be announced the starter for any of the final 2 games. If Clark sits, any of Gijon Robinson, Jacob Tamme, or Tom Santi could see most of the targets, but Robinson is the most likely bet. Considering how Indy uses the tight end, he is a tempting play if you’re a Clark owner. Replacing Reggie Wayne is trickier because Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon are likely owned in your league. Hank Baskett (and Anthony Gonzalez if he is healthy) will see extra reps if Wayne sits.

Patriots
– A win away from clinching the division, but still tied with the Bengals for the 3-seed. We could see players rested once the division is clinched, but it isn’t likely until at least week 17.

Fantasy Studs:
Tom Brady, Laurence Maroney, Randy Moss, Wes Welker

Available Replacements:
Brian Hoyer, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Sam Aiken, Julian Edelman

If Brady were to take a seat, backup Hoyer would take control. He has very limited experience and is not someone you want to be relying on. The Patriots backfield is tricky because it’s already a three-headed attack with Maroney, Sammy Morris, and Kevin Faulk (four if you include Fred Taylor, who should be back soon). Each of those players has plenty of experience and/or injury concerns. Green-Ellis handled the load for this team late in the 2008 season and could be called on again for some work later this year. That said, he’s not worth starting in fantasy leagues because the other players mentioned would likely still be involved in some nature. If Moss and Welker are sent to the bench, Sam Aiken and Julian Edelman would move up to the WR1 and 2 roles. Aiken has proven to be a big play WR, while Edelman filled in nicely for Welker when he missed time earlier this season.

Chargers
– The Chargers are 11-3 and no other team in the AFC is better than 9-5 or worse than 14-0. That means they have plenty of separation from the one team they are chasing and the several teams chasing them. This is likely to result in rest for key players in week 17 and possibly in week 16.

Fantasy Studs: Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson

Available Replacements: Billy Volek, Michael Bennett, Brandon Manumaleuna, Legedu Naanee

If Rivers were to sit, Volek is a player worth considering if you don’t have a decent backup. Tomlinson is very likely to rest and because Sproles could sit as well, Bennett should step in and see some reps. Rest for Gates would mean more work for Manumaleuna and Kris Wilson. Neither are likely to be better plays than your backup or what is on your waiver wire. If Jackson rests, Floyd would likely move up to the WR1 slot to get some experience. Naanee, Kassim Osgood, and Buster Davis would all see work as well.

Saints – One more win clinches homefield throughout the playoffs and they no longer have to try for the 16-0 record, which likely means rest for starters over the next 2 games.

Fantasy Studs: Drew Brees, Pierre Thomas/Reggie Bush/Mike Bell, Jeremy Shockey, Marques Colston

Available replacements: Mark Brunell, Lynell Hamilton, David Thomas, Lance Moore

When Brees takes some time off, it will be the veteran Mark Brunell who steps in. He is at least slightly appealing considering the finally tuned offensive machine he’d be running, but the team would more than likely run the ball as much as possible. In deeper leagues, you could consider him if you had Brees, but there are likely better options out there. If the Saints decide to rest their three-headed RB monster, Lynell Hamilton would see a ton of work. He is very appealing in most formats. If he gets the start, feel free to deploy him as your RB2. Shockey is already out with an injury and David Thomas filled in nicely in week 15. He’s a fine replacement if you need TE help down the stretch. If Colston takes some time off, Lance Moore would see an increase in workload. Robert Meachem is starting for a lot of people right now and playing a lot for New Orleans, but I’d imagine that Colston and Devery Henderson would get a break before he does. Someone has to play after all.

Vikings – A Vikings win at Chicago this week coupled with an Eagles loss at home to Denver clinches the Vikings a first round bye, which means week 17 rest for most players against the Giants.

Fantasy Studs:
Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, Visanthe Shiancoe, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Bernard Berrian

Available Replacements: Tarvaris Jackson, Chester Taylor, Jim Kleinsasser, Greg Lewis, Darius Reynaud, Jaymar Johnson
Tarvaris Jackson / Chester Taylor

Favre might be the most likely player in this article to see significant rest over the team’s final two games. If so, Jackson is a player worth considering in deeper leagues. He’s played well in minimal action this season. If Peterson were to get some rest, it would likely be Chester Taylor who would see extra work. Albert Young would get reps as well. I wouldn’t recommend Kleinsasser or Jeff Dugan if Shiancoe sits, but there is definitely touchdown potential there. If the team’s top 3 receivers get some rest, Lewis and the inexperienced Johnson and Reynaud would see work. The rookie Harvin could see extended work, but it is doubtful considering his recent injury woes.

Cardinals
– Arizona has already clinched the NFC West and is currently the fourth seed, but still has an outside chance at a first round bye. Depending on how things go in week 16, we could see players rested in week 17.

Fantasy Studs: Kurt Warner, Beanie Wells, Tim Hightower, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin

Available Replacements: Matt Leinart, LaRod Stephens-Howling, Jason Wright, Early Doucet, Jerheme Urban

Unless Arizona somehow manages to get some breaks and has a legit shot at a first round bye, I’d be very surprised if Matt Leinart does not see some work over the next two weeks. He has some nice upside if you’re looking for a sleeper at QB. Wells has an injury plagued resume, so don’t be shocked if he gets some rest. Hightower could get a breather as well with the capable Stephens-Howling and Wright available to pick up the slack. If Fitzgerald and the oft-injured Boldin sit, Steve Breaston would likely see a few more looks. Doucet and Urban would also see an extended workload.

Championship Week Waiver Wire

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


Running Backs –

Maurice Morris – I’m fairly certain that I was the only one talking this cat up all week and it paid off with a huge effort on Sunday. I speculated that Morris could touch the ball close to 20 times and he responded with 17 carries for 126 yards and a rushing touchdown along with 6 looks, 5 receptions, and 35 receiving yards. That’s a solid 20+ point effort in most formats.

Advice: I see no reason why anything would change in weeks 16 and 17. Morris should continue to approach 20 touches each week unless the team decides to give Aaron Brown a chance to show what he do. I can’t guarantee Morris will go over the century mark again, but he’s a solid RB2 play in 12 team leagues.

Jerome Harrison – Not many people had Harrison in their lineup this week and rightfully so. There was no telling if Harrison would see most of the looks, or if it would be Chris Jennings, who saw 20 carries in week 14, compared to just 7 for Harrison. Still, even has the backup, Harrison should’ve been considered a very deep sleeper up against the porous Chiefs. He showed up big time with 34 carries, 286 yards, and 3 touchdowns in what is the biggest fantasy performance by a running back this season. This is not Harrison’s first big game of the season. Back in week 4 he went for 152 yards on 34 touches, but the next week he touched the ball just 8 times with Jamal Lewis back in the fold. Lewis is gone now, but Jennings is still in the mix in Cleveland.

Advice: You almost have to consider Harrison in your flex spot for week 16, but you shouldn’t feel comfortable about it and you won’t hear me recommending it. The Browns run offense has been anything but effective for a majority of the season and the split in carries has been off the charts inconsistent. He has upside, but don’t be shocked if he ends up with 28 total yards on 9 touches.

Michael Bush – An injury to Justin Fargas allowed Michael Bush to rush for 133 yards and a score on 18 carries against Denver on Sunday. Prior to that game, Bush had carried the ball only 8 times since week 11. Fargas’ injury seems to be minor and if he is back in the fold next week, Bush cannot be relied on for double-digit looks once again. Although you’d expect him to see more looks after such a strong effort, it’s still a three-headed monster in Oakland.

Advice:
Unless Fargas is out or Coach Cable says otherwise, Bush is third in line for carries and should not be considered in any format. If Fargas is out or Bush is named the RB2, those of you in very deep leagues who are desperate for help at your flex spot can consider his services.

Jason Snelling
– Michael Turner made his return in week 15, which led to the masses dropping Snelling. Turner lasted only 1 carry before sitting out the rest of the game and it’s unknown whether he will suit up for the rest of the season, especially considering that Atlanta has been eliminated from the playoffs. Snelling ended up with only 64 yards, but did have an intriguing 21 looks, which was 10 more than seen by Jerious Norwood.

Advice: Snelling has done an okay job filling in for Turner when he’s missed time and that, coupled with the fact that he could start the team’s final 2 games, means he’s worth consideration as a flex play going forward. That said, if Turner plays, Snelling should not be in your lineup.

Derrick Ward – Whenever I’ve had an empty roster spot this season, Ward has been a player I’ve consistently turned to. Cadillac Williams has stayed relatively healthy so it hasn’t quite paid off as I’d hoped, but consider that in week 15, Ward carried the ball 19 times compared to 12 for Williams. Williams did, however, rack up 88 total yards on 13 touches, which was more efficient than the 73 yards on 20 touches for Ward. Neither has been overly impressive this season, but it’s worth keeping an eye on the timeshare.

Advice: You can’t rely on 20 touches for Ward unless news breaks that he is the new starter. If you have a roster spot to fill, he’s a good speculative pick for your bench, but nothing more right now.

Wide Receivers –

Lance Moore
– Moore was back in the fold in week 15 and took advantage by scoring a touchdown despite only 2 looks. Despite the score, two looks should concern you if you’re considering using him in week 16 for several reasons. (a) It’s two looks. That’s not a lot (b) The Saints threw the ball 45 times, which is almost a dozen more pass attempts than they average a game this season and (c) The percentage of passes going to his teammates was about the same as in recent weeks. I’d mention that Jeremy Shockey was out as another reason to be skeptical of Moore, but David Thomas filled in with a whopping 10 targets, which is more than even Shockey is accustomed to.

Advice: Moore will always have decent potential because of the outstanding offense he is a part of, but he’s going to have trouble finding playing time with all the stars around him. At this point, he’s only worth a desperate play in a deep league.

Malcom Floyd
– Floyd didn’t exactly light it up after Chris Chambers was cut loose, but he’s now been targeted a total of 16 times over the last 2 games. That is a healthy number for a player not being used in most leagues, but part of the reason for that is the fact that he’s caught only 7 of those 16 balls.

Advice: Any player seeing 8 targets a game in an above average offense is worth keeping an eye on. Floyd isn’t the safest play, but he has a ton of upside and is worth consideration in WR-deep leagues.

Josh Morgan has now been targeted at least 8 times in 3 of the 49ers last 4 games.

Josh Morgan has now been targeted at least 8 times in 3 of the 49ers last 4 games.

Josh Morgan – One of the most popular sleepers heading into this season, Morgan has been a disappointment for fantasy owners who reached on him in their draft. He’s quietly been picking it up over the last few weeks, as he’s now been targeted 8 times in 3 of the 49ers last 4 games. His numbers from the last four games (which includes a 3-catch, 14-yard week 14 effort) total to 29 targets, 22 receptions, 174 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Morgan is the third option in San Francisco with Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis keeping Alex Smith busy, but he’s a talented receiver yet to break out who is now seeing almost double-digits in looks every game.

Advice: Definitely worth considering in deeper leagues and someone you should definitely snag for your bench if you’re in any type of dynasty league. The Gore-Crabtree-Morgan-V Davis offense has tons of potential.

Tight Ends –

Bo Scaife – Although Scaife is anything but a gamebreaker, he’s been extremely consistent over the last 6 games and is worth a mention. In those six games, he’s been targeted 42 times, has 25 receptions, 261 yards, and 1 score. He was targeted 10 times on one occasion and has caught 5 balls three times. His high for yardage is 68. What does that all mean? It means he’s a safe play for close to 8 points in PPR formats and considering all the targets, it’s only a matter of time before he gets into the endzone again.

Advice:
Again, he doesn’t have a ton of breakout potential, but he’s safe for 4 catches, 50 yards. If you’re desperate for tight end help and looking around on the Waiver Wire, he’s worth a look.

Quick Hits and Follow Ups –

Arian Foster / Ryan Moats / Chris Brown – I’ve been preaching this and preaching this. Stay away from Houston running backs. Everyone was excited about Foster this week and I just didn’t understand it. All it takes is one fumble and the “starter” gets sent to the bench for the rest of the game. Anyone who owned Steve Slaton or Ryan Moats knows all about this. If you played Foster in week 15, now you do, too.

Felix Jones – His touches continue to increase over the last month or two and it’s something worth keeping an eye on. Since week 11, he’s seen no fewer than 9 looks in any given week. His latest effort was 15 looks (14 touches) against the Saints. He racked up 68 yards on those touches and is still averaging just under 6 yards per carry.

Greg Camarillo – Mentioned him last week after he was targeted 17 times in 2 games. Make it 27 times in 3 games after 10 more looks this week. He only caught 5 of them for 46 yards, but bump him up a few notches on your watch list.

Devin Aromashodu
– Devin Hester was out again so another guy I mentioned last week saw significant action. Aromashodu saw 10 more targets, but disappointed in the execution part of the deal with only 2 receptions for 10 yards. Hard to recommend him going forward, but if Hester is out again in week 16, those double-digit targets in back-to-back weeks make him worth consideration in deeper leagues.

Bernard Berrian – 7 targets, 5 catches, 36 yards. 6 targets , 4 catches , 43 yards . 5 targets, 3 catches , 25 yards. Those are Berrian’s stat lines from his last three games. Add to the equation that Brett Favre and the running game are struggling and that 6-4-35 average line feels even worse.

Kevin Curtis – Back in the fold in week 15, but was targeted only twice. Jeremy Maclin should still be out in week 16, but there is no reason to believe Curtis will see more than 4-5 looks a game going forward with Jackson, Celek, Avant, and Brown ahead of him for looks. He has potential because this offense is so stellar, but he’s not worth the gamble this week.

Things You Should Know

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,


Recommended by ‘The Fifth Down’ blog on the website of the New York Times.

Some player notes from around the NFL:

Quinton Ganther/Marcus Mason
– Ganther and Mason appear to be rotating as the spell back in Washington while Rock Cartwright is the feature back. Neither has much value, especially considering Portis should return over the next few weeks.

Devin Thomas
– Another Redskin who is seeing an increase in playing time, Thomas has been targeted 17 times over the last 3 games and is quietly taking over as the 2nd most productive WR in Washington. Keep an eye on him, but he is unlikely to be fantasy relevant this season.

Matt Moore – Moore is the new starting QB in Carolina with Delhomme gone to the bench. Considering Moore’s inexperience and the fact that Carolina is the 3rd run-heaviest team in the NFL, you shouldn’t expect him to be relied on much, which means he isn’t even worth a bench spot in most leagues.

Dante Rosario – 7 targets each of the last 2 weeks for the tight end, but he’s still sharing the tight end load with Jeff King and Gary Barnidge. Also consider that the team throws the ball very little and they are making a change at quarterback. He’s not worth your time.

Jermichael Finley – Fellow TE Donald Lee scored the only touchdown by a Packers’TE in week 12, but Finley was targeted more (6-to-4) and is averaging around 7 looks a game when healthy. The Packers offense is on a roll and Finley will be a big part of it down the stretch. Unless you have a top tight end, he’s someone to consider starting.

Kahlil Bell
– Bell burst onto the scene when he put up 81 yards on 4 carries 2 weeks ago, but he carried it just once in week 12. His only value right now is as a handcuff to Matt Forte.

Justin Forsett – Forsett is now owned in most leagues, but consider that Julius Jones will be back at some point. It’s hard to say whether or not the team will give Jones his starting job back, but you have to imagine Forsett has earned a bigger share of the workload. Keep an eye on each player’s looks once Jones returns.

Sam Aiken
– Aiken was actually the team’s leading receiver in week 12 with 10 targets, 7 catches, and 80 yards, but note that Julian Edelman was inactive and that Wes Welker and Randy Moss are both still on the roster. Aiken is unlikely to approach those numbers again this season, but will continue to have at least some value as the slot receiver in this pass heavy offense.

Lex Hilliard
– 13 total looks over the last 2 games isn’t much, but consider that the only thing between him and the starting RB job on the league’s 2nd-run heaviest team is an injury to 32-year-old Ricky Williams.

Considering his situation, Lex Hilliard should be considered for a spot on your bench in most leagues.

Considering his situation, Lex Hilliard should be considered for a spot on your bench in most leagues.

Mike Thomas – Will continue to be overshadowed by Mike Sims-Walker and Torry Holt, but consider that he’s caught 83% of passes thrown his way (best in the NFL for WRs with 30+ targets) and is only a rookie. He’s seeing 5-6 looks most weeks and should be considered a sleeper to explode if he sees more action late this season.

Larry Johnson/Bernard Scott – Johnson put up 100 rushing yards in week 12 and Scott has over 200 rushing yards the last 2 weeks, but don’t kid yourself. When Cedric Benson is healthy and returns to action, he will a majority of the carries. At that point, you should expect only 3-6 carries a game for each, which means very little fantasy value.

Chris Jennings
– Jerome Harrison was active in 12 after spending a few weeks as a health scratch so that Jennings could have a shot at the RB2 role. This bumped Jennings back to the RB3 role and it’s anyone’s guess what Mangini will do going forward. Regardless, Jennings is not a player you should be rostering.

UPDATE: (Wednesday Dec 2) – It appears that Jamal Lewis will be heading to IR, which means Jennings could now be the starter in Cleveland. Snatch him up before someone else does if you’re in a deep league or desperate for RB help.

Chris Chambers – Chambers is probably owned in your league, but it’s worth noting that he has caught 74% of the 23 balls thrown his direction since joining the Chiefs and has scored on almost 18% of those catches. Although the fact that he was targeted a total of only 9 times over his first 2 games in KC was a concern, Cassel has now thrown his way 14 times total over the last 2 games.

Malcom Floyd
– The man who replaced Chambers as a starter in San Diego is not seeing the same success that Chambers is enjoying in Kansas City. Floyd is being targeted only 3-5 times a game and although he did put up 85 yards in week 12, it was on only 3 catches (4 targets). Floyd has potential in this potent offense, but right now he’s not seeing enough looks.

Darren McFadden/Justin Fargas/Michael Bush – The Raiders running back situation might be the hardest unit to dissect in the league. Fargas wasn’t even active early in the year when McFadden and Bush were carrying most of the workload, but now Fargas seems to be the top runner of the group (sounds a lot like 2008-09) having carried it a team-high 20 total times over the last 2 games. McFadden has been the better bet in PPR leagues, however, over the last 2 weeks, racking up 9 looks and 7 catches despite only 12 carries. Bush, meanwhile, has only 7 looks (all carries) over the last 2 weeks.