Tag Archive | "San Francisco 49ers"

2010 NFL Draft Vlog

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NFL Draft Expert and FantasyDC.com contributor Shane P. Hallam just wrapped up his 2010 NFL Draft Vlog series, which breaks down the picks made by all 32 NFL teams. You can see the first episode of the series below, which includes analysis of the 49ers draft. To see Shane’s analysis of the the other 31 teams, click HERE and find your favorite team in the list.

Looking Ahead: 2010 49ers

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The San Francisco 49ers retained basically all of their offensive skill players, which should bode well for their fantasy stock across the board. Added to the mix are backup quarterback David Carr, potential RB2 Anthony Dixon, and deep threat Ted Ginn.

QB: Alex Smith : 306-of-502, 3396 yards, 23 TD, 16 INT, 28 carries, 83 yards, 1 TD  – This is a make or break year for Smith, who has the tools around him to deliver respectable offensive production. If he struggles, Carr will get a look, but for now, we’ll assume Smith will be under center most of the season.

Michael Crabtree will be heavily targeted in his second NFL season and could easily reach 1,000 receiving yards.

Michael Crabtree will be heavily targeted in his second NFL season and could easily reach 1,000 receiving yards.

RB: Frank Gore : 283 carries, 1360 yards, 10 TD, 84 targets, 57 receptions, 453 yards, 2 TD – Gore has had trouble staying healthy for 16 consecutive games, but he’s been a fantasy monster when active. This projection assumes he misses no more than a game, which might be generous. Still, Gore for 13-14 games plus a guy off the bench for the other 2-3 is better than most of what you’ll find outside of round 2.

RB: Anthony Dixon vs. Glen Coffee : The incumbent RB2 Coffee was awful while subbing for Gore in 2009, which could translate into Dixon taking over that role in 2010. Keep an eye on this battle this summer. Although these two will combine for only 70 touches if Gore is healthy all season, owners of Gore should snag whoever wins the RB2 role as a handcuff.

WR: Michael Crabtree : 121 targets, 69 receptions, 934 yards, 6 TD – Crabtree should approach elite fantasy status this season. Considering how reliant Smith was on him in the second half of 2009, 25% of the targets isn’t out of the question.

WR: Josh Morgan : 79 targets, 49 receptions, 540 yards, 3 TD – Morgan will play fourth fiddle in the passing game to Gore, Crabtree, and Vernon Davis, but he could still approach 50 receptions as the WR2. The addition of Ginn shouldn’t take away many of his looks.

WR: Ted Ginn
: 37 targets, 19 receptions, 259 yards, 1 TD – Normally, I wouldn’t even mention a guy with 20 receptions, but he’s worth an exception. Ginn will make a significant impact in the return game and, although he could steal a few more targets from Morgan, odds are he will only be utilized in situational packages where he is sent deep. He is unlikely to make a fantasy impact this year.

TE: Vernon Davis
: 132 targets, 81 receptions, 982 yards, 10 TD – Davis enjoyed a breakout season in 2009 and should remain the go-to target on offense again in 2010. A full season with Crabtree on board shouldn’t hurt his production too much, especially when you consider that he put up better numbers last season when Crabtree was active.

Championship Week Waiver Wire

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Running Backs –

Maurice Morris – I’m fairly certain that I was the only one talking this cat up all week and it paid off with a huge effort on Sunday. I speculated that Morris could touch the ball close to 20 times and he responded with 17 carries for 126 yards and a rushing touchdown along with 6 looks, 5 receptions, and 35 receiving yards. That’s a solid 20+ point effort in most formats.

Advice: I see no reason why anything would change in weeks 16 and 17. Morris should continue to approach 20 touches each week unless the team decides to give Aaron Brown a chance to show what he do. I can’t guarantee Morris will go over the century mark again, but he’s a solid RB2 play in 12 team leagues.

Jerome Harrison – Not many people had Harrison in their lineup this week and rightfully so. There was no telling if Harrison would see most of the looks, or if it would be Chris Jennings, who saw 20 carries in week 14, compared to just 7 for Harrison. Still, even has the backup, Harrison should’ve been considered a very deep sleeper up against the porous Chiefs. He showed up big time with 34 carries, 286 yards, and 3 touchdowns in what is the biggest fantasy performance by a running back this season. This is not Harrison’s first big game of the season. Back in week 4 he went for 152 yards on 34 touches, but the next week he touched the ball just 8 times with Jamal Lewis back in the fold. Lewis is gone now, but Jennings is still in the mix in Cleveland.

Advice: You almost have to consider Harrison in your flex spot for week 16, but you shouldn’t feel comfortable about it and you won’t hear me recommending it. The Browns run offense has been anything but effective for a majority of the season and the split in carries has been off the charts inconsistent. He has upside, but don’t be shocked if he ends up with 28 total yards on 9 touches.

Michael Bush – An injury to Justin Fargas allowed Michael Bush to rush for 133 yards and a score on 18 carries against Denver on Sunday. Prior to that game, Bush had carried the ball only 8 times since week 11. Fargas’ injury seems to be minor and if he is back in the fold next week, Bush cannot be relied on for double-digit looks once again. Although you’d expect him to see more looks after such a strong effort, it’s still a three-headed monster in Oakland.

Advice:
Unless Fargas is out or Coach Cable says otherwise, Bush is third in line for carries and should not be considered in any format. If Fargas is out or Bush is named the RB2, those of you in very deep leagues who are desperate for help at your flex spot can consider his services.

Jason Snelling
– Michael Turner made his return in week 15, which led to the masses dropping Snelling. Turner lasted only 1 carry before sitting out the rest of the game and it’s unknown whether he will suit up for the rest of the season, especially considering that Atlanta has been eliminated from the playoffs. Snelling ended up with only 64 yards, but did have an intriguing 21 looks, which was 10 more than seen by Jerious Norwood.

Advice: Snelling has done an okay job filling in for Turner when he’s missed time and that, coupled with the fact that he could start the team’s final 2 games, means he’s worth consideration as a flex play going forward. That said, if Turner plays, Snelling should not be in your lineup.

Derrick Ward – Whenever I’ve had an empty roster spot this season, Ward has been a player I’ve consistently turned to. Cadillac Williams has stayed relatively healthy so it hasn’t quite paid off as I’d hoped, but consider that in week 15, Ward carried the ball 19 times compared to 12 for Williams. Williams did, however, rack up 88 total yards on 13 touches, which was more efficient than the 73 yards on 20 touches for Ward. Neither has been overly impressive this season, but it’s worth keeping an eye on the timeshare.

Advice: You can’t rely on 20 touches for Ward unless news breaks that he is the new starter. If you have a roster spot to fill, he’s a good speculative pick for your bench, but nothing more right now.

Wide Receivers –

Lance Moore
– Moore was back in the fold in week 15 and took advantage by scoring a touchdown despite only 2 looks. Despite the score, two looks should concern you if you’re considering using him in week 16 for several reasons. (a) It’s two looks. That’s not a lot (b) The Saints threw the ball 45 times, which is almost a dozen more pass attempts than they average a game this season and (c) The percentage of passes going to his teammates was about the same as in recent weeks. I’d mention that Jeremy Shockey was out as another reason to be skeptical of Moore, but David Thomas filled in with a whopping 10 targets, which is more than even Shockey is accustomed to.

Advice: Moore will always have decent potential because of the outstanding offense he is a part of, but he’s going to have trouble finding playing time with all the stars around him. At this point, he’s only worth a desperate play in a deep league.

Malcom Floyd
– Floyd didn’t exactly light it up after Chris Chambers was cut loose, but he’s now been targeted a total of 16 times over the last 2 games. That is a healthy number for a player not being used in most leagues, but part of the reason for that is the fact that he’s caught only 7 of those 16 balls.

Advice: Any player seeing 8 targets a game in an above average offense is worth keeping an eye on. Floyd isn’t the safest play, but he has a ton of upside and is worth consideration in WR-deep leagues.

Josh Morgan has now been targeted at least 8 times in 3 of the 49ers last 4 games.

Josh Morgan has now been targeted at least 8 times in 3 of the 49ers last 4 games.

Josh Morgan – One of the most popular sleepers heading into this season, Morgan has been a disappointment for fantasy owners who reached on him in their draft. He’s quietly been picking it up over the last few weeks, as he’s now been targeted 8 times in 3 of the 49ers last 4 games. His numbers from the last four games (which includes a 3-catch, 14-yard week 14 effort) total to 29 targets, 22 receptions, 174 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Morgan is the third option in San Francisco with Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis keeping Alex Smith busy, but he’s a talented receiver yet to break out who is now seeing almost double-digits in looks every game.

Advice: Definitely worth considering in deeper leagues and someone you should definitely snag for your bench if you’re in any type of dynasty league. The Gore-Crabtree-Morgan-V Davis offense has tons of potential.

Tight Ends –

Bo Scaife – Although Scaife is anything but a gamebreaker, he’s been extremely consistent over the last 6 games and is worth a mention. In those six games, he’s been targeted 42 times, has 25 receptions, 261 yards, and 1 score. He was targeted 10 times on one occasion and has caught 5 balls three times. His high for yardage is 68. What does that all mean? It means he’s a safe play for close to 8 points in PPR formats and considering all the targets, it’s only a matter of time before he gets into the endzone again.

Advice:
Again, he doesn’t have a ton of breakout potential, but he’s safe for 4 catches, 50 yards. If you’re desperate for tight end help and looking around on the Waiver Wire, he’s worth a look.

Quick Hits and Follow Ups –

Arian Foster / Ryan Moats / Chris Brown – I’ve been preaching this and preaching this. Stay away from Houston running backs. Everyone was excited about Foster this week and I just didn’t understand it. All it takes is one fumble and the “starter” gets sent to the bench for the rest of the game. Anyone who owned Steve Slaton or Ryan Moats knows all about this. If you played Foster in week 15, now you do, too.

Felix Jones – His touches continue to increase over the last month or two and it’s something worth keeping an eye on. Since week 11, he’s seen no fewer than 9 looks in any given week. His latest effort was 15 looks (14 touches) against the Saints. He racked up 68 yards on those touches and is still averaging just under 6 yards per carry.

Greg Camarillo – Mentioned him last week after he was targeted 17 times in 2 games. Make it 27 times in 3 games after 10 more looks this week. He only caught 5 of them for 46 yards, but bump him up a few notches on your watch list.

Devin Aromashodu
– Devin Hester was out again so another guy I mentioned last week saw significant action. Aromashodu saw 10 more targets, but disappointed in the execution part of the deal with only 2 receptions for 10 yards. Hard to recommend him going forward, but if Hester is out again in week 16, those double-digit targets in back-to-back weeks make him worth consideration in deeper leagues.

Bernard Berrian – 7 targets, 5 catches, 36 yards. 6 targets , 4 catches , 43 yards . 5 targets, 3 catches , 25 yards. Those are Berrian’s stat lines from his last three games. Add to the equation that Brett Favre and the running game are struggling and that 6-4-35 average line feels even worse.

Kevin Curtis – Back in the fold in week 15, but was targeted only twice. Jeremy Maclin should still be out in week 16, but there is no reason to believe Curtis will see more than 4-5 looks a game going forward with Jackson, Celek, Avant, and Brown ahead of him for looks. He has potential because this offense is so stellar, but he’s not worth the gamble this week.

Backup Quarterback Situation: NFC West

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San Francisco 49ers

Currently, there is a quarterback battle taking place between Shaun Hill and Alex Smith. Word is Shaun Hill has the competitive edge. I will leave the breakdown of those players for another time.

Frank Gore – Coach Singletary has let it be known that he wants this team to be a run oriented team. This means no matter which quarterback is starting, Gore will get a lot of carries. The problem is that defenses also are aware of Singletary’s plan so it will take Gore a lot of carries to get respectable fantasy yardage.

Isaac Bruce, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan – Inconsistency at the quarterback position will really hurt the fantasy production on these players. I wouldn’t count on many big games from any of these wide receivers.

Vernon Davis – Davis has been in and out of Singletary’s dog house and that may continue this season. Again, Davis’s numbers shouldn’t vary much with either Hill or Smith behind center.

Joe Nedney – There should be no difference in the kicking game production.

San Francisco Defense – Expect the same numbers from the defense.

Seattle Seahawks

We all saw the devastating affects of a Hasselbeck injury last season. Last season the Seahawks only put up 294 points and 4,599 yards. The season prior when Hasselbeck was leading the team, they scored 393 points and 5,800 yards. This is a considerable drop off in offensive production.

Matt Hasselbeck- Injured.

Seneca Wallace – Last season Wallace proved that he isn’t a viable fantasy option.

Julius Jones and TJ Duckett – Both backs struggled last season. This might be in part because of the issues at quarterback, but with Hasselbeck once again injured, expect the struggles to continue. However, if Seattle happens to make it to the goal line, Duckett will get the bulk of the carries.

TJ Houshmandzadeh, Deon Butler, & Nate Burleson – Houshmandzadeh struggled through a rough season last year when Carson Palmer went down. Now Hasselbeck is injured but TJ won’t see as significant of a drop as last year. Seneca Wallace is a more capable quarterback than Ryan Fitzpatrick. However, Houshmandzadeh will be the only wide receiver to have decent numbers.

John Carlson – With either Hasselbeck or Wallace starting, I expect Carlson to be a top 5 fantasy tight end.

Olindo Mare- There will be a drop in the kicking games production. With a lack of a running game and Wallace at quarterback the offense will provide fewer opportunities for field goals and extra points.

Seattle Defense- There will not be much of a drop off in the defensive production.

Arizona Cardinals

Kurt Warner elevated the offense to new heights last year. An injury to Kurt will affect the entire team and leave all eyes on former 1st round pick Matt Leinart. How will a Warner injury affect your fantasy football team? Below is a player by player breakdown.

Kurt Warner – Injured and working part-time bagging groceries (like we haven’t heard that enough).

Matt Leinart – Leinart has potential and the offensive weapons around him to put up huge numbers. Will that happen? I say yes. I think Leinart will seize the opportunity and lead the Cardinals to another playoff berth. He will also put up top 15 fantasy quarterback numbers.

Tim Hightower and Chris Wells – This offense will always focus on the pass, but there is room for these running backs to pick up fantasy points. I expect Wells to get the bulk of the carries and be the Cardinals best running back option.

Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, Jerheme Urban, & Lenard Pope – An injury to Warner will not affect this group. As I already predicted Leinart will step up and direct this high powered offense.

Neil Rackers – I don’t expect any changes in the kicking game production.

Arizona Defense- Expect the same defensive numbers.

St. Louis Rams

Marc Bulger is coming off of an injury plagued season and backup Kyle Boller is coming off of a shoulder injury that kept him out for all of last season. What happens to this team if Bulger is injured and Boller is the starting quarterback? How will this affect your fantasy football team? Below is a player by player breakdown.

Marc Bulger – Injured.

Kyle Boller – Boller had opportunities to show that he can be a starting quarterback, but he hasn’t proven anything yet. In St. Louis, Boller will have lack of weapons which basically means there is no room on your fantasy roster for Kyle Boller.

Steven Jackson – With or without Bulger, Jackson will be the focal point of this offense. Unfortunately, he will also be the fall guy that defenses focus on week in and week out.

Donnie Avery, Keenan Burton, Laurent Robinson, & Randy McMichael – Are any of these receivers fantasy options? Maybe Avery but having Boller at the quarterback position will not make a difference. It will be a long season in St. Louis.

Josh Brown – Again it’s going to be a long year for the St. Louis offense so don’t expect many extra points. However, I project a high number of field goal attempts.

St. Louis Defense- Expect no major changes to the defensive production.

San Francisco 49ers Depth Chart

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Last Update: 9/5/2009

Quarterbacks:

Shaun Hill
Alex Smith
Nate Davis*

Runningbacks:

Frank Gore
Glen Coffee*
Michael Robinson
Moran Norris (FB)

Wide Receivers:

Isaac Bruce
Arnaz Battle
Josh Morgan
Jason Hill
Micheal Spurlock
Brandon Jones
Michael Crabtree* (unsigned)

Tight Ends:

Vernon Davis
Delanie Walker
Brian Jennings

Kickers:

Joe Nedney

*Rookie