The St. Louis Rams enter the 2010 season with a major facelift on offense, but do return workhorse Steven Jackson, who will be expected to carry the offense on his shoulders once again. Sam Bradford and AJ Feeley will handle QB duties, while Marty Gilyard adds flash to a deep unit of wide receivers. Mike Hoomanawanui and Fendi Onobun were drafted to help replace Randy McMichael at tight end.

QB: Sam Bradford : 252-of-421 , 2776 yards, 14 TD, 14 INT, 21 carries, 64 yards, 1 TD – For now, I’m assuming the rookie takes over starting duties after a few games on the bench behind Feeley. Regardless of how often he plays, he is raw and has a poor team around him. Bradford is a name to avoid in 2010 redraft leagues.

Steven Jackson will handle a majority of the offensive workload again this season.

RB: Steven Jackson : 328 carries, 1412 yards, 8 TD ,74 targets, 49 receptions, 389 yards, 1 TD – Jackson was extremely unlucky in the touchdown department last season, but he should recover in 2010. The offense around him will still stink, but there is no way a guy who touches the ball as often as Jackson can be kept away from the endzone as often as he was in 2009. Jackson heads into the summer recovering from another injury, so that is worth considering when determining his value. Still, the Rams have little depth at RB and will need to keep him on the field.

WR: Laurent Robinson : 100 targets, 57 receptions, 712 yards, 3 TD – Robinson was the Rams WR1 early last season and actually racked up 19 total targets in the first 2 weeks before going down with a season-ending injury in week 3. He will be back in 2010 and should take over the WR1 role again. Touchdowns will be hard to come by, however, in this offense.

WR: Donnie Avery : 89 targets, 45 receptions, 581 yards, 4 TD – Avery quietly racked up 5 receiving touchdowns last season as the top WR once Robinson went down. Although St. Louis has a ton of receivers in camp, he should see plenty of looks as the WR2 this season.

WR: Danny Amendola : 47 targets, 33 receptions, 294 yards, 1 TD – Amendola was a machine in the slot for the Rams last season, but he only played because of the many injuries. He should get some looks again this year, but the team drafted Mardy Gilyard, who will also fair best in the slot.

WR: Marty Gilyard : 37 targets, 24 receptions, 259 yards, 1 TD – As mentioned, Gilyard is a slot guy and will look to unseat Amendola for regular looks at the position. The rookie will be used as a returner, as well, so when you consider the depth at WR (I haven’t even mentioned Brandon Gibson or Keenan Burton), it’s possible Gilyard is a non-factor on offense in 2010. Keep an eye on this throughout the offseason.

TE: Daniel Fells : 53 targets, 33 receptions, 388 yards, 3 TD – Randy McMichael is out of the picture, so Fells has a good chance to handle the TE1 job in 2010. He will be pushed for playing time by speedy rookie Fendi Onobun, however.

Welcome to draft day!

Although I was, at first, strongly opposed to changing the draft format, I’m now only moderated opposed. On the plus side, we can focus in on only 1 round for a night before getting an opportunity to regroup for rounds 2-7. Still, I’ll miss waking up Saturday morning looking forward to two straight days of non-stop football.

Anyways, its draft day and I couldn’t be more excited. In fact, there is even more to be excited about this year. Usually, the first overall pick is already in stone and signed with his team by this point. Not this year. There is actually a little bit of drama–even though most agree it will be Sam Bradford heading to St. Louis. Still, most years we’re 100% sure–this year we’re only 99% sure. That adds some excitement.

And to celebrate, I have an interesting chart for everyone to check out. It’s anyone guess how many of the top quarterback prospects will go in rounds 1-2, but how should we expect them to fare should they earn a starting job in 2010? Can potential St. Louis Ram Sam Bradford have enough success to warrant draft consideration in re-draft leagues? How about Jimmy Clausen? And Colt McCoy, who could go in round 2? Tim Tebow?

The chart below shows the rookie season stats of quarterbacks (min. 100 pass attempts) taken in the first 2 rounds from 2002-2009.

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-Assuming he starts every game for the Rams, I’d project close to 500 pass attempts for Sam Bradford. As you can see from the chart, no QB selected in rounds 1-2 since 2002 has thrown more than 444 (Carr, 2002) in their rookie campaign.

Assuming he's selected by the St. Louis Rams, Sam Bradford will be no more than a back-end QB2 in 2010 fantasy leagues.

-Considering the variation in games played/pass attempts/etc., looking at average touchdowns/interceptions/etc doesn’t help us. Instead, look at the more advanced statistics included here:

-For the most part, this is a very impressive list of quarterbacks. Note, however, that only 3 of the 17 QBs listed had a completion percentage above 60% during their freshman season. The NFL average is 61%. Ben Roethlisberger had a great team behind him in 2004, but his 66% completion percentage is still extremely impressive for a rookie. In fact, only 7 starting quarterbacks (Brees, P Manning, Favre, Schaub, Roethlisberger, Warner, Brady) completed 66% or more of their passes in 2010.

-The only category listed that shows the rookies faring better than league average is Yards-Per-Completion. The rookies are, however, a half percent worse in Yards-Per-Attempt. The difference is due to the 6% difference in completion percentage. So, in conclusion, don’t read much into the YPC. Rookies definitely get less out of a pass attempt than the masses.

-The rookies are also less likely to throw a touchdown pass than the league average. Only Roethlisberger (5.8%) and Cutler (6.6%) had a Touchdowns-per-attempt mark above the 4.2% league average.

-Not surprisingly, rookies are more susceptible to throwing interceptions. Of the 17 quarterbacks listed, only Matt Ryan (2.5%), Joe Flacco (2.8%), and John Beck (2.8%) managed an INT rate better than the 3.1% league average.

What can we draw from this information? Well, let’s take Sam Bradford, for example. Let’s assume he goes to St. Louis, which has a less than impressive offense at this point.

Projections:
510 pass attempts (again, this would be the most attempts by a rookie starter since at least 2002)

60% completion rate (considered to be very accurate, so we’ll be generous here)

11.3 YPC , 6.8 YPA (Considering his supporting cast, this might also be generous)

5.5% TD/C , 3.3% TD/A (Right around our rookie average. These would be higher on a better team)

3.3% INT rate (Better than the rookie average and might be a bit generous, but he’s an accurate passer, so this number works)

Add that all up and you get the following projection: 306-of-510 , 3458 yards , 17 TD, 17 INT.

Toss in a few rushes and you total 202 fantasy points. If I add him to my current projections/PPR Rankings for 2010, that places him 23rd among the 32 starting quarterbacks. That means he is a backend QB2 in standard 12 team leagues. And, remember, I was being generous with my projections.

Considering Bradford is the most likely of all quarterbacks in this draft to see significant playing time, it should be clear that rookie quarterbacks do not make for good fantasy assets in redraft leagues.

Although I just put a damper on Sam Bradford’s fantasy value for 2010, don’t let it ruin your real-life expectations. He’s #1 on most boards for a reason and will have an opportunity to lead what is now a poor team back to prominence. So, Rams fans, get your Bradford jersey, order your tickets, and support your new quarterback…just don’t draft him in your fantasy league this year.

Runningbacks:

Sammy Morris – I talked about Morris’ return to the lineup last week and it’s worth expanding on with another game in the books. In week 13, Morris was looked at 11 times, which was only 3 fewer than what Maroney saw. This past Sunday, Maroney carried the ball 22 times and targeted an additional 3 times. Morris, meanwhile, carried it only 6 times and was looked at a total of 9 times. Kevin Faulk was also in the mix in week 14, racking up 13 of the team’s 47 RB looks. Although Maroney still appears to be unquestioned starter, don’t get too comfortable, especially considering Fred Taylor could be back any day now.

Advice: Morris should only be the lineups of desperate owners in very deep leagues. He’s worth holding as a handcuff to Maroney in standard leagues, but nothing more.

Shonn Greene – Greene was a hot add when Leon Washington went down for the season earlier this year, but the looks just aren’t coming for the rookie. Over the last five games, he’s been looked at 7, 4, 11, 11, and 6 times, respectively. Those aren’t big numbers, but they aren’t bad for a backup. Consider that the Jets are the league’s run heaviest team (at 59% run, they run it 7% more than the next closest team) and Greene is an injury to 31-year-old Thomas Jones away from seeing a majority of the 36 carries the team averages a game. Think about how valuable Ricky Williams is now that Ronnie Brown is out of his way in Miami. Same concept.

Advice: Unless you’re in a very shallow league, Greene should be on someone’s bench. Sure there are only 2-3 weeks left in the regular season, but if Jones goes down this week, Greene is a must-start the rest of the way.

Arian Foster – I talked about Foster a bit on Twitter ( @FDC_MikeClay ) last week as a player who could be called upon should Gary Kubiak turn his attention away from Chris Brown or Ryan Moats. Kubiak followed cue, providing Foster with a team-high 17 looks in the Texans’ week 14 game. Moats touched the ball 11 times and scored the team’s only rushing touchdown, while Brown carried the ball only 3 times. Foster managed only 34 yards on 14 carries, but did open some eyes with 54 receiving yards on 4 targets (4 catches).

Advice: If you’ve been shuffling your bench spots between Moats and Brown, Foster is someone to add to the mix. He’s worth a bench spot for now, but I wouldn’t feel overly confident with him in my lineup until we see what his role is going forward. Pay attention to what Gary Kubiak has to say this week. If he officially moves Foster ahead of Brown on the depth chart, he’s definitely worth a roster spot in most leagues and not the worst flex play in deeper formats.

Kenneth who? Rams backup RB Kenneth Darby would have significant fantasy value if Steven Jackson were to miss any time with an injury.

Kenneth Darby – At this point in the fantasy season, your bench should be mostly filled with handcuffs who would make a huge impact should the player in front of them go down with an injury. Enter Kenneth Darby, who is currently the backup RB to Steven Jackson. Darby is nothing spectacular on his own, but consider that Jackson leads the NFL in looks and touches and is responsible for 84% of the Rams’ rushing attempts this season. If he were to miss a week (he’s been on the injury report for weeks now), wouldn’t you want Darby on your side?

Advice: In all but the shallowest of leagues, Darby is a must own for Steven Jackson owners. In standard-to-deep leagues, he’s a player worth stashing on the bench if you have a spot.

Runningback Committees:

Chris Jennings/Jerome Harrison – I touched on this committee last week, but that was after a game that saw Harrison out-‘look’ Jennings 21-7 in week 13. It was a different story against the Steelers in week 14. Jennings carried the ball 20 times and scored once to account for all his looks. Harrison meanwhile carried it only 7 times for 9 yards and was targeted three times.

Advice: The Browns running game has been awful this season and this unlikely to change regardless of who is carrying the ball. Jennings and, to a lesser extent, Harrison are worth consideration in deep leagues, but you don’t want to be starting either one of them.

Maurice Morris / Aaron Brown – Kevin Smith is out for the season, which means Maurice Morris and rookie Aaron Brown (likely in that order) take over. Smith is currently ninth in the entire NFL in looks, which means there are plenty to go around. Morris has carried it 42 times this season, which is the 2nd most on the team, and has been targeted 19 times. Comparatively, Brown has 21 carries and 11 targets to his name.

Advice: Morris has been battling injuries and it’s worth considering that the team could give the rookie Brown a shot to handle the majority of the looks, but until we hear or see otherwise, Morris is the player you want to claim on the waiver wire in all formats. Brown is worth a pickup for your bench in deeper leagues.

Brandon Jacobs / Ahmad Bradshaw – It should be surprising to see Jacobs name here considering that he is owned in all leagues, but this is more about Bradshaw, who needs to be considered in more. Very quietly, he has taken on a bigger load and has basically split the workload 50/50 with Jacobs over the last month. In the last four games that both players were active, Jacobs has 51 carries for 205 yards and 3 TDs. He’s caught 5 of his 7 targets for 97 yards and a score. Meanwhile, Bradshaw carried it 47 times for 175 yards and 1 score. He was targeted 10 times and caught 7 for 73 yards. Clearly, Jacobs has been more of a fantasy asset thanks to the 3 additional TDs, but he’s done it on only 1 more look than Bradshaw.

Advice: Jacobs is still a must-start in all 12-team formats, but his value isn’t quite where it was a year ago. Bradshaw isn’t the worst flex option in 12-team leagues, but you shouldn’t feel too comfortable with him in there. He’s definitely worth considering in deeper leagues.

Julius Jones / Justin Forsett – After Jones saw 17 more looks than Forsett in week 13 (25-to-8), it seemed that the veteran had earned his job back as the feature back. That was not the case in week 14 as Jones was looked at only 12 times, while Forsett touched the ball 13 times. Jones had one more carry and was more effective in the ground game than Forsett, but Forsett racked up 47 receiving yards on 4 targets (4 receptions), while Jones managed only 1 reception on 2 targets for 4 yards.

Advice: There is no telling who will see more of the looks in week 15 and beyond, but the most likely scenario is that they will split the workload down the middle. Neither should be treated as anything more than a flex play in 12-team leagues, but both should be considered in 16 team leagues.

Wide Receivers:

Greg Camarillo – Camarillo’s production has been extremely inconsistent all season long and the constant rotation between him, Ginn, Bess, and Hartline does not make things any easier to predict. That said, Henne has looked his way 17 times over the last 2 weeks, which grabbed my attention and it should have yours as well if you’re scraping for WR help in deeper leagues. 10 of those looks did come in week 13 when the team threw the ball an unorthodox 52 times (37 was their previous high on the season), but he was then targeted on 7 of the team’s 29 pass attempts in week 14, which was a team high. He caught all 7 passes for 110 yards, which is a solid 18 point PPR effort.

Advice: Not the most reliable option, but Henne is throwing his way and this wouldn’t be the first time he made an impact in PPR leagues. The odds of him scoring are slim, but if you’re looking to fill that last WR slot in 12-team PPR leagues, Camarillo is likely one of the best options on your waiver wire.

Julian Edelman – Unlikely to make a significant impact as long as Wes Welker and Randy Moss are racking up the looks, but Sam Aiken was out with a shoulder injury in week 14 and the rookie Edelman returned from his own injury. He was targeted only once in the game, but it’s always worth keeping the Patriots WR3 on your radar.

Advice: Really only worth a bench spot in deeper leagues at this point, but should also be considered as a handcuff for Welker owners.

Pierre Garcon / Austin Collie – Did you know that Pierre Garcon has been targeted 90 times this season? That’s more than Marques Colston, Devin Hester, Davone Bess, and Roy Williams. In fact, over the last 6 games, Garcon has actually been targeted more than any other Colt, with 3 more than Reggie Wayne and 5 more than Dallas Clark. In that span, he saw 54 targets and caught 27 for 456 yards and 2 scores. Clark and Wayne have more receptions and touchdowns, but Garcon has significantly more yardage. 9 targets a game is hard to find and it’s especially impressive considering he is the team’s third option in the pass game. To a lesser extent, Collie is worth mentioning. He has a touchdown in each of the last 2 games and is up to 6 on the season. He’s averaging nearly 7 looks a game, which is a healthy dose, especially considering who is throwing the ball to him. I’ve seen him dropped in a few leagues and that shouldn’t be happening.

Advice: Both are must owns in 12-team leagues. Garcon should be starting for someone and Collie is at least worth a bench spot.

Jason Avant / Reggie Brown – Jeremy Maclin is out a week or two, which cements these two into larger roles for the next, well, week or two. Maclin was seeing between 6-9 targets each week and those need to be spread around. Maclin was out in week 12 and the two combined for only 6 looks. Avant by himself was averaging nearly that over the last 4 games. Most were disappointed with that effort and many people will be down on both of them going into week 15. You shouldn’t be, especially Avant. The Eagles ran only 52 offensive plays against the Giants, which is their 3rd lowest output of the season and ran the ball 5% more than they normally do.

Advice: The Eagles will pass the ball and they like to spread it around. DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek will get plenty of work, but there are still plenty of looks to go around. Expect 6-8 looks for Avant in week 15 and 3-5 for Brown.

Devin Aromashodu – Bless you! With 12 targets, 8 receptions, 76 yards, and a score in week 14, Aromashodu is sure to be a hot commodity on your league’s waiver wire for people desperately looking for WR help. Should you get into the mix? I say yes. Despite the fact that Devin Hester was inactive for the game, Cutler has campaigned for Aromashodu to see more work and the Bears are the 3rd pass heaviest team in the league. His stock will take a hit if Hester is active in week 15, but don’t be surprised if he is Cutler’s second, if not first, option.

Advice: If you’re looking for someone to take a chance on at WR in 12-team or deeper leagues, Aromashodu is your man. There is a lot of risk here, but the reward could be another game with double-digit looks.

PHI WR3 Jason Avant – 20 targets over the last 3 weeks, but only 42 on the season. Considering how the Eagles like to spread the ball around, it can be frustrating to own any of their receivers. That being said, DeSean Jackson will likely miss some action, which should only mean more looks for an up-and-coming receiver in a pass-heavy offense.

Jason Avant has been a vacuum for the Eagles over the last 3 weeks and could see even more looks with DeSean Jackson likely to miss some time.

Advice: Assuming Jackson is out, he’s worth a spot start this week if you’re desperate for a WR in any 12 team+ league. He is definitely worth at least a bench spot in deep leagues and in some standard formats.

PHI WR4 Reggie Brown – Is expected to start this week against Atlanta with DeSean Jackson likely on the shelf. He could easily see 6-7 targets on a team that is averaging 36 pass attempts per game and possibly more if the Eagles are trailing.

Advice: Won’t help you much once Jackson is back, so you’re better off rolling with Avant. That said, he’s not the worst one week fill-in.

WAS TE1 Fred Davis – Chris Cooley was officially placed on Injured Reserve, which means Davis is the starter for the rest of the season. Since Cooley was injured a few weeks ago, Davis has been targeted 10, 4, 6, 3, and 9 times, respectively. That is clearly a bit inconsistent, but not terrible for a tight end.

Advice: Borderline starter in 16 team leagues and should be on someone’s bench in all but shallow leagues. Considering the potential he has to catch 5-7 balls, if you’re shaky at tight end, he’s at least worth a spot as your backup.

ATL RB2 Jerious Norwood & RB3 Jason Snelling – Snelling was the main man in week 11 when Michael Turner and Norwood were out, but saw only 4 carries in week 12 when both were active. If Turner misses more action, you should expect Snelling and Norwood to split the carries, with Norwood seeing a heavier dose of the 3^rd down looks and Snelling carrying the ball more, primarily near the goal line. If Turner is active, Norwood will spell him and Snelling won’t see more than 5 looks.

Advice: Norwood’s production will be limited to no more than a few carries and several targets a game regardless of whether it’s Turner or Snelling stealing a majority of the carries and goal line looks. He’s worth a bench spot in deeper leagues and a start if you’re desperate in a PPR league and Turner is out. Snelling should be on someone’s bench in all leagues considering Turner’s health issues.

CHI WR3 Johnny Knox – Knox is probably owned in most of your leagues, but some owners have been dumping him after a poor November. He went without a score from weeks 7-11 before finally catching one in week 12. The week 12 score might prompt people to jump back on the bandwagon, but consider that he was targeted only twice in week 12 and 5 times the week before. He’s made some big plays and Chicago is throwing more than all but 2 teams, but he’s the 4^th or 5^th option in the pass game most weeks and is lucky to have 6 balls thrown his way.

Advice: The potential is there for the rookie, but he’s too shaky to start right now. If you have room, leave him on your bench and keep an eye on the target numbers.

STL WR2 Brandon Gibson & WR3 Danny Amendola – Gibson has now been targeted a grand total of 33 times over the last 3 games, but only 15 of those looks were receptions and those catches were translated into only 172 yards and 0 touchdowns. Amendola is back as a relevant contributor to the passing game after Keenan Burton’s season-ending injury with 15 targets for 11 catches over the last 2 games.

Advice: The Rams offense has been better as of late, but it isn’t going to score touchdowns very often, which means limited value for its wide receivers not named Donnie Avery. That being said, both are seeing a ton of looks and with looks comes production. Both are worth bench spots in deep leagues, but you shouldn’t feel comfortable with them in your starting lineup.

HOU RB2 Chris Brown & RB3 Ryan Moats – The Texans’ cloudy runningback situation is taking form over the last few weeks. It appears that Brown will see most of the carries and Slaton won’t be far behind. Slaton will also be used heavily as a pass catcher out of the backfield. Ryan Moats is not being used at all and likely won’t be unless Slaton struggles or is injured.

Advice: Brown should be treated very much like Beanie Wells. He’s going to carry it 10-15 times most weeks and could score a touchdown here or there, but his value will always be limited (especially in PPR) because another back (Slaton for HOU and Hightower for ARZ) is stealing a portion of the carries and 3^rd down looks.

TEN WR2 Kenny Britt – Vince Young and the rookie Britt seem to be developing some chemistry and that could bode well for Britt’s stock going forward. He’s been targeted by Young 16 times over the last 2 weeks and has responded with 11 catches for 170 yards and 2 scores. Britt should continue to see a respectable amount of looks over the next few weeks, but 2 things will consider to hinder Britt’s stock. (1) Justin Gage is still out with a back injury and could return and take back his starting job soon. (2) Tennessee is throwing the ball only 22-25 times a game most weeks now that Young is behind center. The 43 pass attempts in week 12 are not something you can expect to see going forward.

Advice: Britt is definitely worth a roster spot in deep leagues, but you shouldn’t feel comfortable with him as a starter in a your standard 12 team league.

PIT WR3 Mike Wallace – Wallace has caught only 3 balls total over the last 3 games with the lowlight of his season coming in week 12 when Dennis Dixon failed to connect with him on any of the 4 passes thrown his way.

Advice: Although the rut started while Roethlisberger was behind center, it is not time to give up on Wallace. The Steelers will continue to throw his way 5-7 times a game, which has been enough for him to put up decent numbers. He’s not someone you want as a #1 or #2 WR, but he’s a respectable 3^rd option in most leagues.

CLE WR1 Mohamed Massaquoi & WR2 Chansi Stuckey – Massaquoi (20 targets over the last 2 weeks) and Stuckey (14) seem to have earned the trust of Brady Quinn, who has thrown their way a ton over the last 2 weeks. Stuckey has been more consistent, with 5 catches and a score in week 11 and 4 catches in week 12, while Massaquoi went from 5 catches, 115 yards, and a score in week 11 to only 1 catch in week 12.

Advice: Massaquoi is Quinn’s #1 option, which gives him at least some value in most formats. He’s not the worst you can do in 16 team leagues, but his production is too volatile to be starting him in 12 teamers. Stuckey seems to be developing chemistry with his new quarterback, but don’t expect much more than a few looks and catches each week from him in this shaky offense.

The St. Louis Rams added a much needed wide receiver today when they acquired Ronald Curry from the Detroit Lions. Curry, who spent last season with the Oakland Raiders, signed with the Lions earlier this offseason, but became expendable after they drafted Derrick Williams, signed Bryant Johnson, and acquired Dennis Northcutt in a trade with the Jaguars.

The Lions will now look to Calvin and Bryant Johnson, Northcutt, Williams, John Standeford, and Adam Jennings to carry the receiving load.

Meanwhile, Curry will likely compete for a starting job alongside Donnie Avery. Keenan Burton and Laurent Robinson will be his main competition for the job. Derek Stanley and rookie Brooks Foster are also in the running.

Complete St. Louis Rams Fantasy Depth Chart

Complete Detroit Lions Fantasy Depth Chart