The NFC East wraps up with the Washington Redskins. Mike Shanahan is in as Head Coach and the team has since made tons of moves, including the additions of Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, Ryan Torain, Bobby Wade, Mike Furrey, and Joey Galloway. Gone are Jason Campbell, Todd Collins, Rock Cartwright, Quintin Ganther, Marcus Mason, and Antwaan Randle El.

QB: Donovan McNabb : 316-of-526 , 3601 yards , 23 TD , 11 INT , 45 carries , 180 yards, 2 TD  – McNabb loses fantasy value after the move to Washington, but he still knows how to produce yards and scores, while avoiding turnovers. He remains a borderline top 10 option in fantasy leagues.

Devin Thomas steps into the WR2 role for the Redskins in 2010.

RB: Clinton Portis : 234 carries , 961 yards , 5 TD , 43 targets , 31 receptions, 219 yards, 1 TD – This probably seems insanely high for the vet, but note that he was on pace for more yardage than this pre-injury last season. Washington brought in Larry Johnson, who will cut into his touches, but it looks as though Portis will still see the heavier workload.

RB: Larry Johnson : 122 carries , 462 yards , 4 TD , 33 targets , 23 receptions, 137 yards, 1 TD – Johnson was signed by Washington to compete for carries with Clinton Portis. Johnson has a history of catching balls out of the backfield, but the team seems comfortable with Portis on third down, as well. Still, Portis is not getting any younger and Johnson should see close to 150 touches as the RB2.

WR: Santana Moss : 125 targets, 67 receptions, 973 yards, 5 TD – Moss is back as the team’s go-to WR, but the potential growth to prominence by Kelly and/or Thomas could cut into his looks. Still, the addition of McNabb will only help Moss’ fantasy value. He is a 2010 sleeper as long as he avoids suspension due to the recent HGH allegations.

WR: Devin Thomas : 92 targets, 48 receptions, 622 yards, 4 TD – It looks as though Thomas will beat out Malcolm Kelly for the WR2 job. Both showed some flashes of light in 2009, but Kelly started slow and Thomas missed time with an injury late in the year. Thomas is the safer bet.

WR: Malcolm Kelly : 54 targets, 31 receptions, 415 yards, 2 TD – Although he seems all but locked in at WR3, his camp battle with Thomas is still worth keeping an eye on. It’s worth noting that Kelly “won” the job last preseason.

TE: Chris Cooley : 98 targets , 66 receptions , 722 yards , 7 TD – Cooley was on a fantasy roller coaster last season before an injury sidelined him for the season. He will be back in 2010 and has top fantasy TE potential, but Fred Davis was effective as his replacement and should cut into his targets.

TE: Fred Davis : 49 targets , 30 receptions , 315 yards, 2 TD – Davis only touched the ball a few times up until the Cooley injury last season and it’s hard to see him making a significant impact in 2010. I’m projecting 9% of the targets (compared to a healthy 18% for Cooley).

New York Giants

Quote: Wide Receiver Steve Smith on which Giant he thinks will have a breakout season this year: “I would say Ahmad Bradshaw, because I think the WRs will all progress, but Bradshaw is ready to take his game to another level. He had his ankles and feet worked on, and he has enough talent and enough ability to make some big plays for us.”

Could Ahmad Bradshaw (44) surpass Brandon Jacobs as the Giants lead back in 2010?

The Spin: As many have speculated, it looks more and more like Ahmad Bradshaw will be the primary back in 2010. Although, Bradshaw still has nagging injuries which has limited his practice time during OTAs. Jacobs has looked healthy and has taken the majority of first team snaps. Reports say both look much faster than last year when they have gotten on the field. This still looks like a running back by committee situation but I would count on Bradshaw getting the majority of snaps if he is healthy.

Quote: Wide Receiver Steve Smith on Wide Receiver Ramses Barden: “I see him getting on the field this year and catching some TDs in the red zone and making some plays for us. He was a third-round pick, so I’m assuming they want to get him on the field to see what he can do.”

The Spin: Ramses Barden’s large frame would be a threat in the end zone but I would not get too excited about him. Steve Smith is in contract talks now for a long term deal and Hakeem Nicks has a lengthy rookie deal as well. Giants love to run the football and the third or fourth wide receiver in this offense has very limited upside. Barring injury, Ramses will have to land on another team in order to be a force in fantasy football.

Other News:
Running Back coach Jerald Ingram believes Running Backs D.J. Ware and Andre Brown would have been factors in the passing game in 2009 had they not dealt with injuries. Ingram noted both players for their ability to make catches out of the backfield. As we have seen with Jacobs, Bradshaw and  Ward, Giants are no strangers to the running back by committee approach.

Dallas Cowboys

Quote: Cornerback Mike Jenkins on rookie wide receiver Dez Bryant
“He’s going to be great, man. I’ve never seen a young guy come in the first day (like that),” said Jenkins, voted to his first Pro Bowl last year in his first season as a starter. “Usually guys need a day to get into it.
“I wanted to get a feel for him today. I kind of lined up in his face like I was going to press. He seems like one of those guys who likes to be pressed, likes to be physical.”
Quote: Offensive Coordinator on Dez Bryant
“I thought he came out and did a nice job,” “He’s still learning a lot. There’s a lot of stuff we’re installing on a daily basis, but he seemed to pick it up well and I thought he had a good day.”

The Spin:
There are two things I worry about with rookie wide receivers. 1) Getting off the line of scrimmage and 2) Learning the offense. Mike Jenkins’ forte is press coverage and he made the probowl last year doing it. Bryant reportedly had no problem getting off of Jenkins’ jam. The ability is there and the sky is the limit for Dez if he can learn the offense and the route running. According to Jason Garrett and Mike Jenkins, so far so good. It is safe to say, Roy Williams days are numbered.

Washington Redskins

Quote: Offensive Coordinator Kyle Shanahan.
“We don’t really talk about that stuff because we want three guys who all can do it. Whoever can do it, will do it. Clinton’s running with the starters. We’re planning on it being that way until the next guy steps up.”

The Spin:
From what we have seen up until now, Mike Shanahan is not a guy that has fallen into the running back by committee trend. Camp reports show that Portis is getting almost all of the work with the first team and is right now on top the depth chart. The last time Clinton Portis and Mike Shanahan were together Portis averaged an insane 146 total yards per game. I am not suggesting the same would happen this year; but if Portis is half of what he used to be, he has value. Current Yahoo mocks have Portis going off as the 42nd running back on the board and 109th overall. Eventually, someone in the Washington backfield will out perform their current value. If it appears that Portis is healthy and starting in August, snag him late wherever you can.
Philadelphia Eagles

Quote: Offensive Coordinator Marty Mornhinweg’s on Quarterback Kevin Kolb
“You lean toward a players strengths. And really every team looks different because we are going in and out of really any NFL team. So every year you are building that team and you may look a little bit different because of the strengths that you have on a particular year. I thought without a question Donovan had one of the stronger arms maybe of all-time. He could make the brilliant play. Kolb is very very consistent. He handles two or three different play selections very well. Typically very accurate. Is athletic, but not nearly the athlete and doesn’t have the athleticism as Donovan has. So very different that way.”

Quote: Marty Mornhinweg On LeSean McCoy
“That is a man I should have mentioned earlier. He came into camp at just 180 degrees different. He is very very good right now.
“LeSean is a little bit bigger than people think. This guy is really elusive, really natural athleticism. Again we will try to play to his strengths there.”

The Spin:
The Eagles offense will change some with Kolb at the helm. Mornhinweg’s comments hint that Kolb will be more of a traditional west coast passer than Mcnabb was. It appears Kolb will not throw deep as much and will rely on his accuracy and a shorter field. So what does this mean for fantasy owners? As Mornhinweg said himself, “Kolb is very very consistent” and I expect the same for his fantasy value. As Morninhweg suggested, McNabb’s talent allowed him to scramble and use his big arm to make plays. This naturally just leads to more up and down performances than it would if you relied on your offensive game plan. I look for LeSean McCoy to be a major contributor in the passing game in this system so he can exhibit his elusiveness. And I also look for Jeremy Maclin’s role to increase.

Recently, I did a thorough statistical analysis of the Mike Martz offense and how I expect it to impact the Chicago Bears fantasy value in 2010 and beyond. Today I will be doing the same thing, but for another new coach—new Redskins head man Mike Shanahan.

New Redskins Head Coach Mike Shanahan (left) introduces new Redskins Quarterback Donovan McNabb to the team. Now we much determine what kind of fantasy impact Shanahan will have on McNabb and the rest of the offense.

After spending 8 years in the college ranks, Shanahan began his pro coaching career as an assistant in 1984 before accepting his first head coaching job from the Los Angeles Raiders in 1988. He was fired in 1989, but returned to the head coaching ranks in 1995 as the main man for the Denver Broncos, a post that he held until he was fired following the 2008 season.

Now that you have a little bit of a background on his head coaching career, I’d like to point out that this study will focus only on the 14 seasons Shanahan spent in Denver. The game evolves constantly and I do not want my data skewed by statistics from the late 1980s. Instead, I will utilize the 14,635 offensive plays executed by the Broncos starting with the 1995 season and ending at the conclusion of the 2008 campaign.

Play Calling:

The first thing I look at when compiling projections is the team and coach history in the play calling department. Finding a trend in average offensive plays per game, % of those plays that are sacks, % of those plays that are pass attempts, and % of those plays that are rushes is the basis for team projections.

At first glance, it’s hard to see much of a trend here. You might notice that Shanahan’s 2 pass-heaviest seasons came in his first (56%) and last (61%) seasons in Denver, but, other than that, it’s hard to pick up much from this without sorting by Win/Loss record, which brings me to…

This is quite better. Generally speaking, coaches will call for a run more often when ahead in games, so it’s no surprise to see that Shanahan’s run-heaviest years came when his team had a great record. In fact, note that he never ran the ball more than 47% in a season the Broncos were .500 or worse. He ran 48% or more 7 of the 9 seasons his team was above .500.

So, like with Martz, we first need to figure out what kind of record to expect from the Redskins in 2010 before we can make an accurate prediction on the sack:pass:run ratio. Something to consider when making this prediction is that Shanahan never had a season worse than 6-10 while in Denver and won 10 games in half of his 14 seasons there. Still, he’s taking over a team with many holes to fill, so a prediction somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7 is both conservative and reasonable. That leaves us with a pretty solid sample size on Chart 2. In the 6 seasons a Shanahan team was between 7-9 and 9-7, it averaged 64 plays per game. Run and Sack percentages were a bit more volatile, but a 3% sack rate (near league average) and 44% run rate are fair projections based on our sample. When compared to my early sack:pass:run ratio projections for the other 31 NFL teams, 44% run would place Washington as the 13th run-heaviest team in the league.

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Today, I wrap up the NFC East with early Washington Redskins projections. Of the four I’ve done t0 date, this one was the toughest. A lot of questionmarks surround this offense. Will Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis return? If not, who replaces them? Do any of the backup RBs return? Will Mike Shanahan utilize Antwaan Randle El or will he work Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas into the offense? How do the two tight ends fit in: Will Cooley get his job back or did Fred Davis earn a bigger workload?

Basically every position is a toss up, so for now, I made some assumptions. To answer my own questions: (1) Campbell and Portis return (2) Betts, Ganther, Cartwright backup Portis (3) Thomas and Kelly are WR2 and WR3, while Randle El is 4th option (4) Cooley still gets most of the TE work, but Davis gets more looks than pre-2009-Cooley-injury.

QB: Jason Campbell : 331-of-517 , 3640 yards , 20 TD , 15 INT , 53 carries , 282 yards, 2 TD  – Mike Shanahan is the new boss in town, which will change things, but I don’t expect to see much more than we’re used to with Campbell.

RB: Clinton Portis : 279 carries , 1118 yards , 7 TD , 22 targets , 17 receptions, 116 yards – This probably seems insanely high for the vet, but note that he was on pace for more yardage than this pre-injury last season. If Washington brings in another back who can produce alongside him, the numbers will drop to fantasy irrelevance. In the meantime, he’s still the main man.

For the second consecutive season, Devin Thomas (pictured) will do battle with Malcolm Kelly and Antwaan Randle El for the WR2 job in Washington.

WR: Santana Moss : 125 targets, 73 receptions, 944 yards, 5 TD – Moss is back as the team’s go-to WR, but the potential growth to prominence by Kelly and/or Thomas could cut into his looks.

WR: Malcolm Kelly : 71 targets, 40 receptions, 545 yards, 2 TD
WR: Devin Thomas : 71 targets, 38 receptions, 497 yards, 2 TD
-For now, I’m projecting each of these kids at 13% of the team’s targets. Both showed some flashes of light in 2009, but Kelly started slow and Thomas missed time with an injury late in the year. It’s too early at this point to guess which will get more of the looks next year, but it’s worth noting that Kelly “won the job” last preseason.

WR: Antwaan Randle El : 54 targets , 35 receptions , 373 yards , 1 TD – Old Reliable for the Redskins has successfully maintained his role as the team’s 2nd WR option for years now, but it appears that Kelly and Thomas are about to push him aside. Assuming he returns, there’s a good chance he’s, at best, the 5th receiving option.

TE: Chris Cooley : 98 targets , 67 receptions , 733 yards , 5 TD – Cooley was on a fantasy roller coaster last season before an injury sidelined him for the season. He will be back in 2010 and has top fantasy TE potential, but Fred Davis was effective as his replacement and should cut into his targets.

TE: Fred Davis : 38 targets , 24 receptions , 256 yards, 2 TD – Davis only touched the ball a few times up until the Cooley injury last season and, at this point, there is no way of telling what role he will see in 2010. For now, I’m giving him a conservative 7% of the targets (compared to a healthy 18% for Cooley).

Runningbacks:

Leonard Weaver – Weaver, a fullback, went for 100 total yards and a score against the Falcons on Sunday, but note that he touched the ball only 7 times. In fact, in the 6 games Brian Westbrook was inactive this season, he’s averaged just under 7 looks a game. 7 yards per touch is nice, but you can’t expect much on fewer than 10 touches.

Advice: Should not be starting anywhere and should only be owned in the deepest of leagues.

Sammy Morris – Morris is healthy and back in the lineup, which doesn’t bode well for the stock of Laurence Maroney. Morris carried it 9 times on Sunday and was targeted twice, racking up 65 total yards.

Advice: He’s not someone you want to be starting right now, but should be on someone’s bench in 12+ team leagues.

Larry Johnson – Some people still seem to be unclear about his role, so I’m going to clarify it for you: He’s a backup running back who is not, and I repeat, not a threat to Cedric Benson (as can be seen in the week 13 boxscore). Johnson is worth a bench spot in case Benson re-injures himself. In that case, Johnson could see 15-20 looks in an offense that loves to run. That said, even if Benson goes down, Bernard Scott will still steal some of the looks.

Advice: As mentioned, he’s worth a bench spot in all formats, but shouldn’t be starting in any league as long as Benson is active.

Runningback Committees:

Jerome Harrison/Chris Jennings – With Jamal Lewis’ season—and possibly career—over, Harrison and Jennings take over the running back duties for the remainder of the season. Most felt that Jennings would handle much of the workload with Harrison apparently in Eric Mangini’s doghouse, but it was Harrison who had 21 looks in week 13 compared to just 7 for Jennings. Harrison was ineffective in the run game (3.5 YPC), but racked up 62 yards on 7 receptions and scored twice. Jennings, meanwhile, averaged over 5 yards per carry on 5 attempts.

Advice: Harrison is worth a look as a flex player in most formats, especially in PPR. Don’t expect to see 10+ targets every week, but he should see his share with the team usually playing from behind. Jennings is only worth a bench spot in deep leagues.

Rock Cartwright / Quinton Ganther / Marcus Mason – Because Clinton Portis is now officially done for the season, the Redskins running back mess is worth looking into if you’re in need of some help at the position. Cartwright is clearly the top dog so far with 35 looks over the last 2 games, including 28 of the team’s 47 carries by runningbacks. That being said, Ganther was more effective on 5 fewer carries against the Saints on Sunday and could see an extended look during the team’s final few games. The same can be said for Marcus Mason, who despite only 6 carries (8 looks) over the last 2 games, could be in line for a few extra “audition” carries.

Advice: Cartwright has racked up 18 and 17 looks, respectively, over the last 2 games and so he is worth consideration at the flex spot in most formats if you need a body. Ganther is not a bad speculative add in deeper leagues and Mason should only be owned in extremely deep leagues.

Justin Fargas / Darren McFadden / Michael Bush – 27 total carries over the last 2 games for Fargas is more than McFadden (15) and Bush (4) combined. Considering that he’s been effective on those carries (128 yards total), one would have to imagine that they’d continue along with him as their RB1 as long as they are competitive.

Advice: Fargas is worth flex consideration in 12 team standard leagues. McFadden should be owned in dynasty leagues, but is worth no more than bench spot in deeper leagues at this point. Bush has no value unless one of the top 2 are injured.

Wide Receivers:

Kenny Britt – 20 total targets over the last 2 games and a receiving touchdown in three straight for the rookie. The Titans won’t continue to pass the ball 43 times a game like they did the last two weeks, but Britt should still see 7-8 targets most weeks.

Advice: Worth consideration in 16 team leagues, but you shouldn’t feel too comfortable quite yet, especially considering that this team will be running the ball more than they have been and the inconsistency of Britt’s looks this season.

Devin Thomas – I touched on Thomas last week in my ‘Things you should know’ feature, as a player who was seeing more looks, but was unlikely to make a huge fantasy impact this season. He sure made me look silly with 7 receptions on 7 targets for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns. I’d call that fantasy relevant. Thomas has be targeted 20 times total over the last 3 games and is seemingly earning the trust of Jason Campbell.

Advice: You shouldn’t feel comfortable with him as your WR3 in standard leagues quite yet, but he’s certainly worth a bench spot. He should certainly be owned in dynasty leagues considering his age and potential.

Sam Aiken – Aiken should be getting some attention after putting up 80+ receiving yards each of the last two games. Although he was looked at a healthy 10 times versus the Saints two weeks ago, you won’t see anything close to that most weeks considering that Wes Welker and Randy Moss see double-digit targets almost every game. On the year, Aiken is averaging only 3 looks a game, which is exactly what he saw in week 13. Fortunately for his owners (there’s not too many of you), his only reception of the three looks was an 81 yard touchdown.

Advice: Worth a speculative bench spot in deeper leagues and is a desperation start candidate in those same leagues just because of the Patriots’ offensive potential.

Brian Robiskie – Finally getting into the action, the rookie and pre-season sleeper favorite caught 4 of his 5 targets for 69 yards on Sunday and is back on the waiver wire map. It would be surprising not to see plenty of balls thrown his way as the season winds down, but he’s still competing with and likely behind Harrison, Jennings, Cribbs, Massaquoi, and Stuckey for looks.

Advice: Only worth a spot in dynasty leagues. If you’re in a very deep redraft league and looking for a deep sleeper for your bench, he should be a candidate.

Tight Ends:

Jermichael Finley is sure to be a hot Waiver Wire add this week, but make sure you put in a claim if you need help at tight end.

Jermichael Finley – Finley is going to be a hot commodity this week after a huge 2 touchdown game on national television Monday night. I’ve been on the Finley bandwagon for quite a while, so you know I think you should put in a claim if you are shaky at tight end. He’s quickly becoming one of Aaron Rodgers’ favorite weapons with 24 targets total over the last 3 games. He’s caught an impressive 17 of those passes for 158 yards and 3 scores. He missed some time with a leg injury earlier this year, but don’t let that scare you away from one of the game’s top young fantasy tight ends.

Advice: Finley will be a borderline top 10 tight end the rest of the way and should be treated accordingly.

Fred Davis – Sticking with the Redskins theme, next on my list is Fred Davis. I’ve talked about him previously, but only now is he officially a starter for the rest of the season after Chris Cooley was finally placed on IR. Davis has been targeted 9 times each of the last 2 games, which is a lot for a tight end. He has 9 catches for 96 yards over those 2 games and scored a touchdown in both. That’s 10.3 and 11.3 fantasy points, respectively, in standard scoring leagues.

Advice: If he’s unowned and you are struggling at tight end, he is a pretty solid option considering the looks coming in. Don’t start him over a top tight end, but if you are bouncing around between John Carlson and Dustin Keller, Davis should be in your lineup going forward.

Evan Moore – Moore burst onto the scene with 11 targets, 6 catches, and 80 yards in his NFL debut Sunday. Robert Royal, Michael Gaines, and Greg Estandia are also tight ends on the roster, but Royal and Gaines are struggling with injuries and Estandia was a healthy inactive in week 13.

Advice: Not worth a look in any but the deepest of leagues. You’d have to imagine he will see more looks after a great debut, but his contributions will be limited in this, a poor, but improving offense.

Kickers:

Garrett Hartley – This one is pretty straightforward. Hartley has replaced John Carney as the kicker of the NFL’s most potent offense.

Advice: A top 5 kicker in all formats as long he remains the starter.