Superbowl Projections
Final Score:
New Orleans Saints 24
Indianapolis Colts 27
Statistics:
New Orleans Saints (NFC):
Quarterbacks:
Drew Brees: 27-of-38 , 310 yards , 2 TD , 1 INT
Runningbacks:
Pierre Thomas: 14 carries, 63 yards, 2 receptions, 14 yards, 1 TD
Reggie Bush: 7 carries, 35 yards, 4 receptions, 28 yards
Mike Bell: 1 carry, 4 yards
Lynell Hamilton: 1 carry, 2 yards
Wide Receivers:
Marques Colston: 5 receptions, 83 yards, 1 TD
Devery Henderson: 4 receptions, 63 yards, 1 TD
Robert Meachem: 3 receptions, 46 yards
Lance Moore: 1 reception, 10 yards
Tight Ends:
Jeremy Shockey: 3 receptions, 36 yards
David Thomas: 3 receptions, 30 yards
Kicker:
Garrett Hartley: FG, 3 XP
–
Indianapolis Colts (AFC):
Quarterbacks:
Peyton Manning: 26-of-38 , 303 yards , 2 TD , 1 INT
Runningbacks:
Joseph Addai: 14 carries, 59 yards, 3 receptions, 20 yards, 1 TD
Donald Brown: 5 carries, 20 yards, 1 reception, 5 yards
Michael Hart: 2 carries, 5 yards
Wide Receivers:
Reggie Wayne: 6 receptions, 78 yards
Pierre Garcon: 5 receptions, 75 yards
Austin Collie: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD
Tight Ends:
Dallas Clark: 6 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD
Kicker:
Matt Stover: 3 FG, 2 XP
–
Breakdown:
As always, my projections are based strongly on statistical trends. I study league trends from the last 10 years and focus on what each player has done throughout his career with a focus on the 2009 campaign in order to come up with projections. To give you a better idea of how I came up with the Superbowl predictions, I’m including a quick summary this week to show where my run, pass, and total play figures were derived from.
Saints:
In losses and games decided by fewer than 11 points this season, the New Orleans Saints averaged 62 pass+run plays per game, 60% of which were passes. On the flip side, in games they won by 11 or more points, they passed only 49% of the time and averaged 64 plays. For my projections, I focused on the first scenario, considering that that it is unlikely that the Saints blowout the Colts. This left me with a pass/rush breakdown of 38/24 for the Saints in the Superbowl. Drew Brees generally completes around 70% of his passes, which left me with a 27-of-38 passing day for the Saints quarterback.
Colts:
In losses and games decided by fewer than 11 points this season, the Indianapolis Colts averaged 59 plays a game and passed the ball 64% of the time. In wins by 11+ points, they averaged 65 plays and passed 61% of the time. The difference in playcalling is not very significant, but I leaned towards the “close game” figures for my projection. This left me with 38 pass attempts and 22 rush attempts for the Colts in the Superbowl. Peyton Manning completes right around 69% of his passes, which leaves us with a projected passing day of 26-of-38.
Final Score:
I focused on what kind of performance each team put forth in games decided by fewer than 11 points this season to determine my final score projection. The numbers came out very close, with both team’s projected points in the region of 24-27. So why did I give Indianapolis the nod? The best player in the NFL, Peyton Manning, significantly improves the Colts superbowl odds and should make enough of a difference to get this team a world championship.
Superbowl Player Rankings
| Quarterback | Pts | Runningback | Strd | PPR | Wide Receiver | Strd | PPR | |||||
| Drew Brees | NO | 19.4 | Joseph Addai | IND | 13.9 | 16.9 | Marques Colston | NO | 14.3 | 19.7 | ||
| Peyton Manning | IND | 19.1 | Pierre Thomas | NO | 13.7 | 15.7 | Austin Collie | IND | 11.5 | 16.5 | ||
| Reggie Bush | NO | 6.3 | 10.3 | Devery Henderson | NO | 12.3 | 16.3 | |||||
| Donald Brown | IND | 2.5 | 3.5 | Reggie Wayne | IND | 7.8 | 14.3 | |||||
| Michael Hart | IND | 0.5 | 0.5 | Pierre Garcon | IND | 7.5 | 12.5 | |||||
| Mike Bell | NO | 0.4 | 0.4 | Robert Meachem | NO | 4.6 | 8.0 | |||||
| Lynell Hamilton | NO | 0.2 | 0.2 | Lance Moore | NO | 1.0 | 2.4 | |||||
| Kicker | Pts | Tight End | Strd | PPR | ||||||||
| Matt Stover | IND | 9.0 | Dallas Clark | IND | 13.0 | 19.5 | ||||||
| Garrett Hartley | NO | 6.0 | Jeremy Shockey | NO | 3.6 | 6.6 | ||||||
| David Thomas | NO | 3.0 | 6.0 | |||||||||
Championship Sunday Projections
(2) Minnesota Vikings 27
@
(1) New Orleans Saints 28
MIN –
QB:
Brett Favre – 23-of-35 , 280 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
RB:
Adrian Peterson – 20 carries, 95 yards, 2 receptions, 20 yards, TD
Chester Taylor – 5 carries, 18 yards, 2 receptions, 15 yards
WR:
Sidney Rice – 6 receptions, 95 yards, TD
Percy Harvin – 4 receptions, 52 yards, 2 carries, 14 yards
Bernard Berrian – 3 receptions, 35 yards
TE:
Visanthe Shiancoe – 4 receptions, 40 yards, TD
K:
Ryan Longwell – 2 FG , 3 XP
NO –
QB:
Drew Brees – 26-of-37 , 307 yards , 3 TD
RB:
Pierre Thomas – 12 carries , 62 yards, 3 receptions, 20 yards, TD
Reggie Bush – 4 carries, 18 yards, 4 receptions, 28 yards, TD
Mike Bell – 3 carries, 10 yards
WR:
Marques Colston – 6 receptions, 90 yards, TD
Robert Meachem – 3 receptions, 45 yards, TD
Devery Henderson – 3 receptions, 48 yards
Lance Moore – 1 reception, 11 yards
TE:
Jeremy Shockey – 4 receptions, 48 yards
K:
Garrett Hartley – 4 XP
—
(5) New York Jets 17
@
(1) Indianapolis Colts 24
NYJ –
QB:
Mark Sanchez – 16-of-27 , 191 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
RB:
Shonn Greene – 20 carries, 105 yards, TD
Thomas Jones – 12 carries, 48 yards
WR:
Jericho Cotchery – 6 receptions, 80 yards
Braylon Edwards – 3 receptions, 42 yards, TD
TE:
Dustin Keller – 4 receptions, 44 yards
K:
Jay Feely – FG, 2 XP
IND-
QB:
Peyton Manning – 26-of-38 , 285 yards , 2 TD , INT
RB:
Joe Addai – 13 carries, 46 yards, 3 receptions, 20 yards, TD
Donald Brown – 5 carries, 18 yards, 2 receptions, 10 yards
Mike Hart – 2 carries, 5 yards
WR:
Reggie Wayne – 6 receptions, 72 yards
Pierre Garcon – 4 receptions, 60 yards
Austin Collie – 4 receptions, 46 yards, TD
TE:
Dallas Clark – 6 receptions, 70 yards, TD
K:
Matt Stover – FG, 3 XP
Championship Sunday Player Rankings
Fantasy Player Rankings for this weekend’s two Conference Championship games.
| Rk | QB | Rk | RB | Rk | WR | Rk | TE | Rk | K | Rk | D/ST |
| 1 | D Brees | 1 | A Peterson | 1 | S Rice | 1 | D Clark | 1 | R Longwell | 1 | Colts |
| 2 | P Manning | 2 | S Greene | 2 | M Colston | 2 | V Shiancoe | 2 | M Stover | 2 | Jets |
| 3 | B Favre | 3 | J Addai | 3 | R Wayne | 3 | J Shockey | 3 | J Feely | 3 | Saints |
| 4 | M Sanchez | 4 | P Thomas | 4 | J Cotchery | 4 | D Keller | 4 | G Hartley | 4 | Vikings |
| 5 | R Bush | 5 | P Garcon | ||||||||
| 6 | T Jones | 6 | P Harvin | ||||||||
| 7 | D Brown | 7 | A Collie | ||||||||
| 8 | C Taylor | 8 | R Meachem | ||||||||
| 9 | L Hamilton | 9 | B Edwards | ||||||||
| 10 | M Bell | 10 | D Henderson | ||||||||
| 11 | M Hart | 11 | B Berrian | ||||||||
| 12 | L Moore |
Sunday Predictions
Here is a look at what to expect in Sunday’s divisional round games.
Dallas Cowboys 30 , Minnesota Vikings 17
Cowboys:
Tony Romo: 21-of-34 , 280 yards , 2 TD
Felix Jones: 15 carries, 75 yards, TD, 1 reception, 8 yards
Marion Barber: 7 carries, 30 yards
Tashard Choice: 3 carries, 9 yards
Miles Austin: 7 catches, 105 yards, TD
Roy Williams: 3 catches, 45 yards, 0.5 TD
Patrick Crayton: 2 catches, 30 yards
Jason Witten: 6 catches, 70 yards, 0.5 TD
Shaun Suisham: 3 FG, 3 XP
Vikings:
Brett Favre: 25-of-38 , 300 yards, TD
Adrian Peterson: 18 carries, 90 yards, TD, 2 catches, 15 yards
Chester Taylor: 5 carries, 20 yards, 3 receptions, 20 yards
Sidney Rice: 6 catches, 100 yards, 0.5 TD
Bernard Berrian: 5 catches, 60 yards
Percy Harvin: 4 catches, 55 yards
Visanthe Shiancoe: 4 catches, 40 yards, 0.5 TD
Ryan Longwell: FG, 2 XP
—
New York Jets 10 @ San Diego Chargers 20
Chargers:
Philip Rivers: 21-of-32 , 280 yards, TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 17 carries, 60 yards, TD, 1 catch, 5 yards
Darren Sproles: 7 carries, 25 yards, 3 catches, 30 yards
Vincent Jackson: 5 catches, 80 yards, 0.5 TD
Malcom Floyd: 4 catches, 60 yards
Legedu Naanee: 1 catch, 10 yards
Antonio Gates: 6 catches, 90 yards, 0.5 TD
Nate Kaeding: 2 FG, 2 XP
Jets:
Mark Sanchez: 17-of-30 , 200 yards , 0 TD
Thomas Jones: 16 carries, 65 yards, TD, 1 catch, 5 yards
Shonn Greene: 12 carries, 60 yards, 1 catch, 5 yards
Brad Smith: 2 carries, 10 yards
Jericho Cotchery: 6 catches, 80 yards, 0.5 TD
Braylon Edwards: 5 catches, 70 yards, 0.5 TD
Dustin Keller: 3 catches, 30 yards
Jay Feely: FG, XP
