Superbowl Projections

Final Score:

New Orleans Saints 24
Indianapolis Colts 27

Statistics:

New Orleans Saints (NFC):

Quarterbacks:

Drew Brees: 27-of-38 , 310 yards , 2 TD , 1 INT

Runningbacks:

Pierre Thomas: 14 carries, 63 yards, 2 receptions, 14 yards, 1 TD
Reggie Bush: 7 carries, 35 yards, 4 receptions, 28 yards
Mike Bell: 1 carry, 4 yards
Lynell Hamilton: 1 carry, 2 yards

Wide Receivers:

Marques Colston: 5 receptions, 83 yards, 1 TD
Devery Henderson: 4 receptions, 63 yards, 1 TD
Robert Meachem: 3 receptions, 46 yards
Lance Moore: 1 reception, 10 yards

Tight Ends:

Jeremy Shockey: 3 receptions, 36 yards
David Thomas: 3 receptions, 30 yards

Kicker:

Garrett Hartley: FG, 3 XP

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Indianapolis Colts (AFC):

Quarterbacks:

Peyton Manning: 26-of-38 , 303 yards , 2 TD , 1 INT

Runningbacks:

Joseph Addai: 14 carries, 59 yards, 3 receptions, 20 yards, 1 TD
Donald Brown: 5 carries, 20 yards, 1 reception, 5 yards
Michael Hart: 2 carries, 5 yards

Wide Receivers:

Reggie Wayne: 6 receptions, 78 yards
Pierre Garcon: 5 receptions, 75 yards
Austin Collie: 5 receptions, 55 yards, 1 TD

Tight Ends:

Dallas Clark: 6 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD

Kicker:

Matt Stover: 3 FG, 2 XP

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Breakdown:

As always, my projections are based strongly on statistical trends. I study league trends from the last 10 years and focus on what each player has done throughout his career with a focus on the 2009 campaign in order to come up with projections. To give you a better idea of how I came up with the Superbowl predictions, I’m including a quick summary this week to show where my run, pass, and total play figures were derived from.

Saints:

In losses and games decided by fewer than 11 points this season, the New Orleans Saints averaged 62 pass+run plays per game, 60% of which were passes. On the flip side, in games they won by 11 or more points, they passed only 49% of the time and averaged 64 plays. For my projections, I focused on the first scenario, considering that that it is unlikely that the Saints blowout the Colts. This left me with a pass/rush breakdown of 38/24 for the Saints in the Superbowl. Drew Brees generally completes around 70% of his passes, which left me with a 27-of-38 passing day for the Saints quarterback.

Colts:

In losses and games decided by fewer than 11 points this season, the Indianapolis Colts averaged 59 plays a game and passed the ball 64% of the time. In wins by 11+ points, they averaged 65 plays and passed 61% of the time. The difference in playcalling is not very significant, but I leaned towards the “close game” figures for my projection. This left me with 38 pass attempts and 22 rush attempts for the Colts in the Superbowl. Peyton Manning completes right around 69% of his passes, which leaves us with a projected passing day of 26-of-38.

Final Score:

I focused on what kind of performance each team put forth in games decided by fewer than 11 points this season to determine my final score projection. The numbers came out very close, with both team’s projected points in the region of 24-27. So why did I give Indianapolis the nod? The best player in the NFL, Peyton Manning, significantly improves the Colts superbowl odds and should make enough of a difference to get this team a world championship.

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