Looking Ahead – 2010 Vikings
The Vikings are one of the toughest to project at this point considering the potential changes at Quarterback and Runningback. Brett Favre could retire (again) and Chester Taylor appears to be on his way out. Considering Taylor was the team’s third down back and a valuable piece of the offense, knowing who will replace him is relevant.
Percy Harvin should approach 1,000 receiving yards in 2010.
For the time being, we will assume Favre returns and that the player who replaces Taylor will take on the same role.
QB: Brett Favre : 333-of-497 , 3827 yards , 28 TD , 10 INT – I don’t suspect Favre can improve on his incredible 2009 campaign, but there is little reason to believe he will collapse completely. He’ll regress slightly, but will still be valuable.
RB: Adrian Peterson : 325 carries , 1463 yards , 17 TD , 51 targets , 37 receptions, 336 yards , 1 TD – A top 5 pick, Peterson will approach 20 total TDs once again this season. Burning question: Could AP play more on 3rd down if the team can’t find a capable replacement for Taylor? 10-15 more receptions would add PPR value.
WR: Sidney Rice : 118 targets, 79 receptions, 1223 yards, 9 TD – Rice had very little impact in his first two seasons, but broke loose with Favre under center in 2009. Assuming Favre returns, it should be another outstanding fantasy season, If Favre retires, he’s a risky pick.
WR: Percy Harvin : 108 targets, 72 receptions, 936 yards, 6 TD, 14 carries, 127 yards – Harvin will be relied on more in his second season and should end up with a similar number of targets to what Rice will see.
WR: Bernard Berrian : 77 targets , 44 receptions, 525 yards, 4 TD – Berrian had a huge 2008 season before taking a backseat to Rice and, to a lesser degree, Harvin in 2009. With Harvin likely to take on a larger role in 2010, Berrian will take another step back.
TE: Visanthe Shiancoe : 72 targets, 51 receptions, 534 yards, 7 TD – Shiancoe returns as Favre’s favorite redzone target. He won’t see the targets most top TEs see, but he will maintain his value as long as he’s scoring.
Looking Ahead – 2010 Bears
The biggest offseason change to the the Bears offense will be the addition of Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz.
Next up is the Chicago Bears.
Everyone is already talking about Mike Martz’s arrival in town as the team’s new offensive coordinator, but will he really make much of a difference considering this team was already one of the league’s pass heaviest teams? Yes, he will. Although the team will have a hard time passing more than they did last season, where the passes will be delivered will be the difference. Martz is known for not utlizing the tight end in the pass game (bad news for Greg Olsen), but does put pass-catching RBs to good use (good news for Matt Forte)
QB : Jay Cutler : 358-of-577 , 4006 yards , 27 TD , 22 INT , 41 carries , 164 yards , 1 TD – Cutler will rack up the pass attempts and yards, but had a serious interception issue last season, which, if not corrected, will hold him back. Furthermore, Martz offenses are known for giving up a ton of sacks, which will mean more big plays, but more of a beatdown on Cutler. Think Aaron Rodgers early in 2009.
RB: Matt Forte : 242 carries , 897 yards , 5 TD, 89 targets , 71 receptions , 571 yards, 2 TD – Forte has not run the ball well in his 2 seasons in Chicago, averaging well below 4.0 YPC both seasons (4.1 is league average). He has, however, been a pass-catching machine, which means big things in a Martz-run offense.
WR: Devin Hester : 119 targets , 77 receptions , 1005 yards, 5 TD – It’s too early to really know which receivers will get the most looks next season, but for now, we’ll assume that it will be Hester getting a majority of the looks.
WR: Johnny Knox : 101 targets , 58 receptions , 663 yards , 5 TD – Very inconsistent in 2009, but will be valuable fantasy asset if he locks down the WR2 job.
WR: Devin Aromashodu : 83 targets , 47 receptions , 593 yards , 4 TD – Was Cutler’s favorite target down the stretch last season, but Hester and Knox were out with injuries during most of that span. Regardless, he should be in for an expanded workload.
WR: Earl Bennett : 71 targets, 44 receptions, 575 yards, 4 TD – Seems to be the one people are overlooking, but he was the starter last season and will still be in the mix for looks.
TE: Greg Olsen : 77 targets , 45 receptions , 462 yards, 5 TD – This is lower than his 2009 production, but would be a record season for a TE in a Mike Martz offense. Once we get a better idea of Martz’s gameplan, this could change, but for now, there’s little reason to believe he will be an impact fantasy tight end.
Looking Ahead – 2010 Packers
On to the NFC North we go. First up is the Green Bay Packers, who are close to my heart after I correctly tagged Aaron Rodgers as 2009’s top Fantasy quarterback last preseason. I also developed high expectations for Jermichael Finley during the early part of the season and he looks to be a top TE in 2010.
Jermichael Finley will head into 2010 as a borderline top 5 Fantasy Tight End.
This offense shouldn’t see much of a facelift this offseason, so you shouldn’t expect drastic changes in fantasy production from most of the players.
QB: Aaron Rodgers : 337-of-518 , 4278 yards , 28 TD , 8 INT , 52 carries , 286 yards , 4 TD – Rodgers may not repeat as the top scoring QB, but there is little reason to believe he won’t be at least a top 5 QB option. The emergence of Finley should make this offense, and thus Rodgers, even better.
RB: Ryan Grant : 273 carries , 1174 yards , 11 TD , 21 targets , 18 receptions , 138 yards , 1 TD – Grant didn’t have many receptions last season, but was still a top 10 PPR back because of his heavy workload on the ground. Brandon Jackson missed a lot of time with injury and could cut slightly into Grant’s carries. Still, he should put up similar numbers to what we saw in 2009.
WR: Greg Jennings : 118 targets , 71 receptions , 1142 yards , 7 TD – Was a bit of a disappointment last season, but still put up 1,100 yards. I expect his TD rate to improve next season, but it’s worth noting that Finley, not Jennings, will be Rodgers top target in the redzone.
WR: Donald Driver : 107 targets , 67 receptions , 942 yards , 5 TD – Driver has not shown much of a decline despite his age and should be in line for another healthy dose of passes in 2010.
WR: James Jones : 59 targets , 33 receptions , 454 yards , 3 TD – Won’t make much of an impact as the WR3, but he could be a nice fantasy asset if Driver begins to slow.
TE: Jermichael Finley : 107 targets , 80 receptions , 986 yards , 8 TD – Rodgers was throwing to Finley nearly 10 times a game late last season and that trend will continue in 2010. Finley will be a top 10 tight end and could reach the top 5 if he stays healthy all season.
Looking Ahead – 2010 Redskins
Today, I wrap up the NFC East with early Washington Redskins projections. Of the four I’ve done t0 date, this one was the toughest. A lot of questionmarks surround this offense. Will Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis return? If not, who replaces them? Do any of the backup RBs return? Will Mike Shanahan utilize Antwaan Randle El or will he work Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas into the offense? How do the two tight ends fit in: Will Cooley get his job back or did Fred Davis earn a bigger workload?
Basically every position is a toss up, so for now, I made some assumptions. To answer my own questions: (1) Campbell and Portis return (2) Betts, Ganther, Cartwright backup Portis (3) Thomas and Kelly are WR2 and WR3, while Randle El is 4th option (4) Cooley still gets most of the TE work, but Davis gets more looks than pre-2009-Cooley-injury.
QB: Jason Campbell : 331-of-517 , 3640 yards , 20 TD , 15 INT , 53 carries , 282 yards, 2 TD – Mike Shanahan is the new boss in town, which will change things, but I don’t expect to see much more than we’re used to with Campbell.
RB: Clinton Portis : 279 carries , 1118 yards , 7 TD , 22 targets , 17 receptions, 116 yards – This probably seems insanely high for the vet, but note that he was on pace for more yardage than this pre-injury last season. If Washington brings in another back who can produce alongside him, the numbers will drop to fantasy irrelevance. In the meantime, he’s still the main man.
For the second consecutive season, Devin Thomas (pictured) will do battle with Malcolm Kelly and Antwaan Randle El for the WR2 job in Washington.
WR: Santana Moss : 125 targets, 73 receptions, 944 yards, 5 TD – Moss is back as the team’s go-to WR, but the potential growth to prominence by Kelly and/or Thomas could cut into his looks.
WR: Malcolm Kelly : 71 targets, 40 receptions, 545 yards, 2 TD
WR: Devin Thomas : 71 targets, 38 receptions, 497 yards, 2 TD
-For now, I’m projecting each of these kids at 13% of the team’s targets. Both showed some flashes of light in 2009, but Kelly started slow and Thomas missed time with an injury late in the year. It’s too early at this point to guess which will get more of the looks next year, but it’s worth noting that Kelly “won the job” last preseason.
WR: Antwaan Randle El : 54 targets , 35 receptions , 373 yards , 1 TD – Old Reliable for the Redskins has successfully maintained his role as the team’s 2nd WR option for years now, but it appears that Kelly and Thomas are about to push him aside. Assuming he returns, there’s a good chance he’s, at best, the 5th receiving option.
TE: Chris Cooley : 98 targets , 67 receptions , 733 yards , 5 TD – Cooley was on a fantasy roller coaster last season before an injury sidelined him for the season. He will be back in 2010 and has top fantasy TE potential, but Fred Davis was effective as his replacement and should cut into his targets.
TE: Fred Davis : 38 targets , 24 receptions , 256 yards, 2 TD – Davis only touched the ball a few times up until the Cooley injury last season and, at this point, there is no way of telling what role he will see in 2010. For now, I’m giving him a conservative 7% of the targets (compared to a healthy 18% for Cooley).
Looking Ahead – 2010 Eagles
I held off on the Eagles until a decision was made regarding Brian Westbrook. Now that it’s official that he will be a Free Agent on March 5, here is a look at some early 2010 team projections:
QB: Donovan McNabb : 327-of-546 , 4094 yards , 25 TD, 11 INT, 40 carries, 161 yards, 2 TD – I have little reason to believe the Eagles will move McNabb this offseason and we know by now what to expect from vet.
LeSean McCoy is the main man in Philly after the announcement that Brian Westbrook would be cut loose.
RB: LeSean McCoy : 226 carries , 926 yards , 7 TD , 75 targets , 55 receptions , 354 yards , 2 TD – Coach Andy Reid has made it clear that McCoy is the main man heading into his 2nd season. Although we don’t know yet who will compliment him in the backfield, it’s safe to say he should handle around 18 touches a game.
WR: DeSean Jackson : 126 targets , 67 receptions , 1139 yards , 9 TD – Jackson will again be an elite fantasy WR, but won’t be quite as valuable in PPR leagues considering his low catch total.
WR: Jeremy Maclin : 115 targets , 67 receptions , 933 yards , 5 TD – Maclin and Jackson were about even in targets during the later stages of the 2009 season and that should again be the case next season.
WR: Jason Avant : 63 targets , 41 receptions , 534 yards , 2 TD – Assuming he returns (RFA), he will again be the 3rd WR option.
TE: Brent Celek : 115 targets , 79 receptions , 991 yards , 7 TD – Celek became a must-start Tight End in 2009 and he will be a top 10 option once again next season.